Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | Total Bond Market | 32% |
IGOV iShares International Treasury Bond ETF | International Government Bonds | 8% |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | Foreign Large Cap Equities | 21% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Blend Equities | 39% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Moderate Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Jan 29, 2009, corresponding to the inception date of IGOV
Returns By Period
As of Apr 11, 2026, the Moderate Portfolio returned 2.09% Year-To-Date and 8.26% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | -0.11% | 2.78% | -0.42% | 4.03% | 27.10% | 18.38% | 10.55% | 12.70% |
Portfolio Moderate Portfolio | -0.05% | 2.90% | 2.09% | 5.55% | 21.85% | 12.72% | 6.12% | 8.26% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | -0.15% | 0.46% | 0.39% | 0.77% | 6.32% | 3.55% | 0.28% | 1.69% |
IGOV iShares International Treasury Bond ETF | -0.19% | 2.00% | -0.10% | -0.13% | 2.32% | 1.84% | -4.12% | -1.25% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | -0.12% | 3.06% | 0.25% | 4.74% | 29.52% | 19.61% | 10.91% | 14.16% |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 0.28% | 6.32% | 8.62% | 16.60% | 41.44% | 17.90% | 9.43% | 9.81% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jan 30, 2009, Moderate Portfolio's average daily return is +0.04%, while the average monthly return is +0.75%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 7.7 years.
Historically, 66% of months were positive and 34% were negative. The best month was Nov 2020 with a return of +8.1%, while the worst month was Mar 2020 at -8.9%. The longest winning streak lasted 15 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 5 months.
On a daily basis, Moderate Portfolio closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 13, 2020 with a return of +5.8%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -7.8%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.08% | 1.74% | -4.73% | 3.18% | 2.09% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 2.34% | 0.48% | -2.10% | 1.18% | 3.25% | 3.50% | 0.21% | 2.40% | 2.28% | 1.35% | 0.49% | 0.60% | 17.04% |
| 2024 | -0.11% | 2.14% | 2.37% | -3.46% | 3.49% | 1.08% | 2.40% | 2.14% | 1.59% | -2.47% | 3.10% | -2.76% | 9.58% |
| 2023 | 5.95% | -2.95% | 2.83% | 1.20% | -1.23% | 3.60% | 2.07% | -1.97% | -3.82% | -2.32% | 7.47% | 4.84% | 15.97% |
| 2022 | -4.04% | -1.99% | 0.16% | -6.85% | 0.52% | -5.98% | 5.71% | -4.10% | -7.55% | 4.12% | 6.51% | -3.18% | -16.55% |
| 2021 | -0.68% | 1.03% | 1.45% | 3.03% | 1.06% | 0.90% | 1.31% | 1.26% | -3.00% | 3.26% | -1.53% | 2.25% | 10.63% |
Benchmark Metrics
Moderate Portfolio has an annualized alpha of 1.14%, beta of 0.59, and R² of 0.91 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since January 30, 2009.
- This portfolio participated in 68.42% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 62.23% of its upside — more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
- Beta of 0.59 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index — a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.
- Alpha
- 1.14%
- Beta
- 0.59
- R²
- 0.91
- Upside Capture
- 62.23%
- Downside Capture
- 68.42%
Expense Ratio
Moderate Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.06%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Moderate Portfolio ranks 68 for risk / return — better than 68% of portfolios on our site. You're getting solid returns for the risk taken. A good sign, especially for investors who want growth without excessive volatility.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 2.73 | 2.23 | +0.50 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 3.94 | 3.12 | +0.82 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.52 | 1.42 | +0.11 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 4.01 | 4.05 | -0.03 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 17.70 | 17.91 | -0.21 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 31 | 1.58 | 2.36 | 1.28 | 2.29 | 7.38 |
IGOV iShares International Treasury Bond ETF | 13 | 0.44 | 0.69 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 2.56 |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 66 | 2.36 | 3.28 | 1.44 | 4.38 | 19.06 |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 79 | 3.09 | 4.11 | 1.56 | 4.57 | 18.43 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Moderate Portfolio provided a 2.39% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.39% | 2.46% | 2.42% | 2.21% | 2.10% | 1.85% | 1.75% | 2.22% | 2.43% | 2.08% | 2.25% | 2.22% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 3.92% | 3.86% | 3.67% | 3.09% | 2.60% | 2.12% | 2.38% | 2.72% | 2.81% | 2.54% | 2.51% | 2.57% |
IGOV iShares International Treasury Bond ETF | 1.41% | 1.41% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 0.39% | 0.00% | 0.24% | 0.31% | 0.19% | 0.69% | 0.12% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.13% | 1.12% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.66% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 2.77% | 3.22% | 3.35% | 3.15% | 2.91% | 3.16% | 2.04% | 3.04% | 3.35% | 2.77% | 3.05% | 2.92% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Moderate Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Moderate Portfolio was 23.49%, occurring on Oct 14, 2022. Recovery took 363 trading sessions.
The current Moderate Portfolio drawdown is 1.91%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -23.49% | Nov 9, 2021 | 235 | Oct 14, 2022 | 363 | Mar 27, 2024 | 598 |
| -21.72% | Feb 20, 2020 | 23 | Mar 23, 2020 | 82 | Jul 20, 2020 | 105 |
| -14.03% | Feb 10, 2009 | 19 | Mar 9, 2009 | 23 | Apr 9, 2009 | 42 |
| -12.42% | May 2, 2011 | 108 | Oct 3, 2011 | 94 | Feb 16, 2012 | 202 |
| -11.69% | Jan 29, 2018 | 229 | Dec 24, 2018 | 69 | Apr 4, 2019 | 298 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 4 assets, with an effective number of assets of 3.28, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | BND | IGOV | VEA | VTI | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | -0.11 | 0.13 | 0.82 | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| BND | -0.11 | 1.00 | 0.45 | -0.06 | -0.11 | 0.07 |
| IGOV | 0.13 | 0.45 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| VEA | 0.82 | -0.06 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.93 |
| VTI | 0.99 | -0.11 | 0.14 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 0.94 |
| Portfolio | 0.94 | 0.07 | 0.35 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 1.00 |
AI Insight on Diversification
The portfolio is moderately diversified with a mix of bond and equity positions that exhibit varying degrees of correlation. The highest correlations are observed between the equity positions VTI and VEA, with a correlation of 0.83, indicating these two holdings move quite closely together and thus reduce diversification benefits within the equity portion. Conversely, the bond ETFs BND and IGOV show a moderate correlation of 0.45, which suggests some overlap but still provides a degree of diversification within fixed income.
Notably, the bond position BND has very low or slightly negative correlations with the equity ETFs (VTI at -0.11 and VEA at -0.06), which is beneficial for diversification as bonds tend to behave differently from stocks, helping to smooth portfolio volatility. IGOV, an international government bond ETF, has a moderate positive correlation with equities (0.14 with VTI and 0.34 with VEA), which slightly reduces its diversification benefit compared to BND.
Looking at the portfolio's correlation with individual positions, it is very highly correlated with the equity ETFs VTI (0.94) and VEA (0.93), indicating that the portfolio’s overall performance is strongly influenced by these two equity holdings. The correlations with bonds are much lower (0.07 with BND and 0.35 with IGOV), showing that bonds contribute less to the portfolio’s day-to-day movement but provide important diversification.
Given the dominance of VTI and VEA in driving portfolio returns and their high correlation with each other, the portfolio leans toward equity concentration despite the presence of bonds. While bonds add some diversification, the strong equity correlation suggests the portfolio is not fully diversified across uncorrelated assets. Overall, the portfolio is moderately diversified but could benefit from either reducing overlap between equity holdings or increasing exposure to assets with lower correlations to equities to improve risk mitigation.