Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio

Asset Allocation

Position	Category/Sector	Target Weight
AVDE Avantis International Equity ETF	Foreign Large Cap Equities	5%
AVDV Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF	Foreign Small & Mid Cap Equities	5%
AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF	Foreign Large Cap Equities	5%
AVUS Avantis U.S. Equity ETF	Large Cap Growth Equities, Actively Managed	11%
AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF	Small Cap Value Equities	11%
DFIVX DFA International Value Portfolio	Foreign Large Cap Equities	5%
FNDC Schwab Fundamental International Small Co. Index ETF	Foreign Small & Mid Cap Equities	5%
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	Small Cap Blend Equities	11%
RPV Invesco S&P 500® Pure Value ETF	Large Cap Value Equities, S&P 500	11%
SPTI SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF	Government Bonds	10%
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF	Government Bonds, Short-Term Bond	6%
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	REIT	11%
VTIP Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF	Inflation-Protected Bonds	4%

Benchmark Against

Benchmark

S&P 500 Index

Rebalance

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.

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The earliest data available for this chart is Sep 26, 2019, corresponding to the inception date of AVUS

Returns By Period

	1D	1M	YTD	6M	1Y	3Y*	5Y*	10Y*
Benchmark S&P 500 Index	0.11%	-3.43%	-3.84%	-1.98%	16.08%	16.86%	10.37%	12.29%
Portfolio Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio	0.20%	-2.17%	3.93%	6.47%	19.78%	13.21%	7.51%	—
Portfolio components:
AVUS Avantis U.S. Equity ETF	0.08%	-2.70%	0.41%	3.15%	21.02%	17.81%	11.29%	—
AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF	0.68%	-0.56%	9.54%	12.30%	27.33%	16.21%	10.57%	—
RPV Invesco S&P 500® Pure Value ETF	0.45%	-2.31%	4.76%	9.28%	18.84%	15.13%	10.19%	10.50%
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	0.41%	-2.76%	4.53%	5.58%	19.56%	10.79%	4.27%	10.05%
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	1.36%	-4.43%	3.06%	1.04%	2.95%	7.33%	3.14%	4.85%
SPTI SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF	0.14%	-1.06%	0.03%	0.74%	4.11%	3.21%	0.33%	1.42%
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF	0.09%	-0.23%	0.34%	1.33%	3.82%	3.98%	1.80%	1.74%
AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF	-0.75%	-2.89%	4.81%	7.99%	36.50%	18.50%	7.00%	—
AVDE Avantis International Equity ETF	-0.52%	-2.40%	4.22%	9.40%	32.64%	17.80%	10.09%	—
AVDV Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF	-0.97%	-4.17%	7.34%	14.94%	49.48%	23.93%	13.58%	—

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Sep 27, 2019, Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio's average daily return is +0.04%, while the average monthly return is +0.87%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 6.7 years.

Historically, 59% of months were positive and 41% were negative. The best month was Nov 2020 with a return of +12.4%, while the worst month was Mar 2020 at -16.6%. The longest winning streak lasted 7 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.

On a daily basis, Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 24, 2020 with a return of +6.5%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -9.0%.

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2026	4.22%	3.75%	-4.54%	0.70%									3.93%
2025	2.27%	-0.22%	-1.57%	-1.01%	3.74%	3.35%	0.32%	4.64%	1.51%	-0.14%	2.06%	0.78%	16.66%
2024	-1.78%	2.02%	3.55%	-3.93%	3.84%	-0.81%	5.47%	0.87%	1.46%	-2.33%	4.96%	-4.70%	8.29%
2023	7.77%	-3.01%	-1.73%	0.19%	-3.11%	5.58%	4.01%	-2.92%	-3.57%	-3.53%	7.51%	7.14%	13.92%
2022	-2.98%	-0.53%	1.02%	-5.04%	1.48%	-7.97%	5.98%	-3.28%	-8.74%	7.04%	6.53%	-3.77%	-11.26%
2021	1.57%	5.50%	3.82%	3.08%	2.48%	-0.44%	-0.32%	1.65%	-2.21%	3.29%	-2.63%	4.33%	21.64%

Benchmark Metrics

Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio has an annualized alpha of 0.43%, beta of 0.73, and R² of 0.79 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since September 27, 2019.

This portfolio participated in 85.56% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 76.46% of its upside — more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.

Alpha: 0.43%

Beta: 0.73

R²: 0.79

Upside Capture: 76.46%

Downside Capture: 85.56%

Expense Ratio

Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.19%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.

Top 10 holdings

FNDC

Schwab Fundamental International Small Co. Index ETF

AVDV

Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF

RPV

Invesco S&P 500® Pure Value ETF

AVEM

Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF

DFIVX

DFA International Value Portfolio

AVUV

Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF

AVDE

Avantis International Equity ETF

AVUS

Avantis U.S. Equity ETF

VNQ

Vanguard Real Estate ETF

IJR

iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio ranks 63 for risk / return — better than 63% of portfolios on our site. You're getting solid returns for the risk taken. A good sign, especially for investors who want growth without excessive volatility.

Overall Rank

Sharpe Ratio Rank

Sortino Ratio Rank

Omega Ratio Rank

Calmar Ratio Rank

Martin Ratio Rank

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics

	Portfolio	Benchmark	Difference
Sharpe ratio Return per unit of total volatility	1.47	0.88	+0.59
Sortino ratio Return per unit of downside risk	2.09	1.37	+0.72
Omega ratio Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.30	1.21	+0.10
Calmar ratio Return relative to maximum drawdown	2.00	1.39	+0.61
Martin ratio Return relative to average drawdown	9.13	6.43	+2.70
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

	Risk / Return Rank	Sharpe ratio	Sortino ratio	Omega ratio	Calmar ratio	Martin ratio
AVUS Avantis U.S. Equity ETF	63	1.12	1.67	1.26	1.70	8.32
AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF	63	1.17	1.73	1.24	1.90	7.48
RPV Invesco S&P 500® Pure Value ETF	57	1.10	1.62	1.22	1.64	6.58
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	46	0.87	1.36	1.18	1.44	5.78
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	16	0.18	0.36	1.05	0.29	1.11
SPTI SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF	53	1.07	1.61	1.19	1.68	5.07
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF	96	2.67	4.30	1.58	4.26	16.01
AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF	84	1.83	2.42	1.36	2.80	10.66
AVDE Avantis International Equity ETF	87	1.92	2.57	1.39	2.87	11.22
AVDV Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF	95	2.69	3.38	1.55	3.76	15.42

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio Sharpe ratios as of Apr 3, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

1-Year: 1.47
5-Year: 0.56
All Time: 0.59

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 0.98 to 1.66, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This indicates that its risk-adjusted performance is in line with the majority of portfolios, suggesting a balanced approach to risk and return—likely suitable for a wide range of investors.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.

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Dividends

Dividend yield

Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio provided a 2.64% dividend yield over the last twelve months.

	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Portfolio	2.64%	2.74%	2.86%	2.62%	2.42%	1.92%	1.73%	1.65%	1.83%	1.30%	1.32%	1.25%
Portfolio components:
AVUS Avantis U.S. Equity ETF	1.03%	1.08%	1.27%	1.41%	1.59%	1.08%	1.19%	0.35%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF	1.39%	1.58%	1.61%	1.65%	1.74%	1.28%	1.21%	0.38%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
RPV Invesco S&P 500® Pure Value ETF	2.41%	2.50%	2.16%	2.38%	2.29%	1.92%	2.11%	2.28%	2.49%	1.73%	1.73%	2.39%
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF	1.27%	1.44%	2.05%	1.31%	1.41%	1.53%	1.11%	1.44%	1.58%	1.20%	1.22%	1.48%
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF	3.86%	3.92%	3.85%	3.95%	3.91%	2.56%	3.93%	3.39%	4.74%	4.23%	4.82%	3.92%
SPTI SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF	3.81%	3.79%	3.77%	2.99%	1.45%	0.53%	0.75%	2.02%	1.97%	1.46%	1.23%	1.18%
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF	3.92%	4.00%	4.18%	3.31%	1.15%	0.66%	1.74%	2.28%	1.79%	1.10%	0.84%	0.69%
AVEM Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF	2.41%	2.45%	3.17%	3.06%	2.77%	2.61%	1.60%	0.35%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
AVDE Avantis International Equity ETF	2.67%	2.66%	3.29%	3.01%	2.79%	2.46%	1.63%	0.29%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
AVDV Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF	2.97%	3.05%	4.31%	3.29%	3.17%	2.39%	1.67%	0.36%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.

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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio was 32.98%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 166 trading sessions.

The current Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio drawdown is 4.10%.

Depth	Start	To Bottom	Bottom	To Recover	End	Total
-32.98%	Jan 21, 2020	44	Mar 23, 2020	166	Nov 16, 2020	210
-20.17%	Jan 5, 2022	183	Sep 27, 2022	313	Dec 26, 2023	496
-13.42%	Dec 2, 2024	87	Apr 8, 2025	43	Jun 10, 2025	130
-6.99%	Feb 27, 2026	16	Mar 20, 2026	—	—	—
-5.92%	Nov 9, 2021	16	Dec 1, 2021	23	Jan 4, 2022	39

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.

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Diversification

Diversification Metrics

Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 13 assets, with an effective number of assets of 11.34, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests that the portfolio's investments are spread across a variety of assets, indicating a well-diversified allocation. However, true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

	Benchmark	VGSH	SPTI	VTIP	VNQ	AVEM	RPV	AVUV	IJR	DFIVX	AVDV	FNDC	AVDE	AVUS	Portfolio
Benchmark	1.00	-0.02	-0.02	0.14	0.64	0.69	0.69	0.72	0.78	0.71	0.71	0.75	0.77	0.96	0.83
VGSH	-0.02	1.00	0.86	0.60	0.15	-0.00	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	0.05	0.08	0.05	-0.04	0.03
SPTI	-0.02	0.86	1.00	0.58	0.17	-0.01	-0.10	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	0.06	0.03	-0.05	0.02
VTIP	0.14	0.60	0.58	1.00	0.24	0.13	0.12	0.13	0.14	0.19	0.23	0.23	0.21	0.14	0.21
VNQ	0.64	0.15	0.17	0.24	1.00	0.45	0.65	0.62	0.69	0.55	0.57	0.60	0.60	0.66	0.75
AVEM	0.69	-0.00	-0.01	0.13	0.45	1.00	0.53	0.58	0.60	0.74	0.76	0.80	0.78	0.69	0.71
RPV	0.69	-0.07	-0.10	0.12	0.65	0.53	1.00	0.90	0.86	0.74	0.69	0.69	0.71	0.81	0.90
AVUV	0.72	-0.07	-0.10	0.13	0.62	0.58	0.90	1.00	0.96	0.75	0.72	0.72	0.73	0.87	0.94
IJR	0.78	-0.02	-0.03	0.14	0.69	0.60	0.86	0.96	1.00	0.73	0.71	0.73	0.74	0.90	0.95
DFIVX	0.71	0.01	-0.02	0.19	0.55	0.74	0.74	0.75	0.73	1.00	0.92	0.91	0.94	0.77	0.86
AVDV	0.71	0.05	0.02	0.23	0.57	0.76	0.69	0.72	0.71	0.92	1.00	0.96	0.96	0.76	0.85
FNDC	0.75	0.08	0.06	0.23	0.60	0.80	0.69	0.72	0.73	0.91	0.96	1.00	0.96	0.79	0.86
AVDE	0.77	0.05	0.03	0.21	0.60	0.78	0.71	0.73	0.74	0.94	0.96	0.96	1.00	0.81	0.87
AVUS	0.96	-0.04	-0.05	0.14	0.66	0.69	0.81	0.87	0.90	0.77	0.76	0.79	0.81	1.00	0.93
Portfolio	0.83	0.03	0.02	0.21	0.75	0.71	0.90	0.94	0.95	0.86	0.85	0.86	0.87	0.93	1.00

The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Sep 27, 2019

Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio

Asset Allocation

Performance

Performance Chart

Returns By Period

Monthly Returns

Benchmark Metrics

Expense Ratio

Top 10 holdings

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Return / Risk — by metrics

Sharpe ratio

Sortino ratio

Omega ratio

Calmar ratio

Martin ratio

Sharpe Ratio

Dividends

Dividend yield

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

Worst Drawdowns

Volatility

Volatility Chart

Diversification

Diversification Metrics

Number of Effective Assets

Asset Correlations Table