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Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio

Last updated Sep 23, 2023

70% US, 30% Intl, 80% equity, 20% fixed income

Asset Allocation


SPTI 10%VGSH 6%VTIP 4%AVUS 11%AVUV 11%RPV 11%IJR 11%AVEM 5%AVDE 5%AVDV 5%DFIVX 5%FNDC 5%VNQ 11%BondBondEquityEquityReal EstateReal Estate
PositionCategory/SectorWeight
SPTI
SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF
Government Bonds10%
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF
Government Bonds6%
VTIP
Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF
Inflation-Protected Bonds4%
AVUS
Avantis U.S. Equity ETF
Large Cap Growth Equities, Actively Managed11%
AVUV
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
Small Cap Value Equities, Actively Managed11%
RPV
Invesco S&P 500® Pure Value ETF
All Cap Equities11%
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
Small Cap Growth Equities11%
AVEM
Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
Foreign Large Cap Equities5%
AVDE
Avantis International Equity ETF
Foreign Large Cap Equities5%
AVDV
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF
Foreign Small & Mid Cap Equities, Actively Managed5%
DFIVX
DFA International Value Portfolio
Foreign Large Cap Equities5%
FNDC
Schwab Fundamental International Small Co. Index ETF
Foreign Small & Mid Cap Equities5%
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate ETF
REIT11%

Performance

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Quarterly


0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptember
2.72%
8.78%
Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio
Benchmark (^GSPC)
Portfolio components

Returns


1 month6 monthsYear-To-Date1 year5 years (annualized)10 years (annualized)
Benchmark-1.94%8.61%12.52%16.97%9.79%N/A
Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio-1.36%2.92%2.87%10.94%6.20%N/A
AVUS
Avantis U.S. Equity ETF
-1.72%7.69%9.11%17.23%11.62%N/A
AVUV
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
-2.48%7.22%4.37%17.71%13.04%N/A
RPV
Invesco S&P 500® Pure Value ETF
-1.26%3.18%-3.34%6.37%5.89%N/A
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
-4.12%0.40%0.34%7.88%6.30%N/A
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate ETF
-4.32%-0.49%-4.10%-3.86%-1.28%N/A
SPTI
SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF
-0.41%-2.96%-0.36%0.22%-1.76%N/A
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF
0.23%-0.08%1.59%2.30%0.16%N/A
AVEM
Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
-0.19%4.79%7.02%15.28%4.21%N/A
AVDE
Avantis International Equity ETF
0.27%3.81%8.01%24.92%5.54%N/A
AVDV
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF
1.49%4.90%7.85%24.68%6.83%N/A
DFIVX
DFA International Value Portfolio
2.47%9.26%12.21%30.62%7.96%N/A
FNDC
Schwab Fundamental International Small Co. Index ETF
-0.64%1.58%5.19%20.24%3.78%N/A
VTIP
Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF
0.32%0.29%2.18%2.63%2.65%N/A

Asset Correlations Table

The table below shows the correlation coefficients between the assets in the portfolio.

VGSHSPTIVTIPVNQAVEMRPVIJRAVUVDFIVXFNDCAVDVAVUSAVDE
VGSH1.000.830.500.07-0.05-0.14-0.07-0.12-0.07-0.02-0.05-0.07-0.04
SPTI0.831.000.490.07-0.08-0.20-0.13-0.19-0.13-0.06-0.09-0.12-0.08
VTIP0.500.491.000.220.170.130.160.150.210.250.250.190.23
VNQ0.070.070.221.000.490.650.700.630.570.620.600.720.63
AVEM-0.05-0.080.170.491.000.580.620.610.740.810.780.710.80
RPV-0.14-0.200.130.650.581.000.880.930.790.740.750.860.76
IJR-0.07-0.130.160.700.620.881.000.960.750.760.750.910.77
AVUV-0.12-0.190.150.630.610.930.961.000.780.750.770.880.76
DFIVX-0.07-0.130.210.570.740.790.750.781.000.910.930.790.93
FNDC-0.02-0.060.250.620.810.740.760.750.911.000.960.830.97
AVDV-0.05-0.090.250.600.780.750.750.770.930.961.000.810.96
AVUS-0.07-0.120.190.720.710.860.910.880.790.830.811.000.85
AVDE-0.04-0.080.230.630.800.760.770.760.930.970.960.851.00

Sharpe Ratio

The current Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio Sharpe ratio is 0.51. A Sharpe ratio between 0 and 1.0 is considered sub-optimal.

-1.000.001.002.003.004.000.51

The Sharpe ratio of Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio is in the bottom 25%, suggesting that this portfolio isn't performing as well in terms of risk-adjusted returns compared to many others. This could be due to lower returns, higher volatility, or both. It might be an indication that the portfolio needs fine-tuning.


Rolling 12-month Sharpe Ratio-0.500.000.501.00AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptember
0.51
0.81
Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio
Benchmark (^GSPC)
Portfolio components

Dividend yield

Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio granted a 2.63% dividend yield in the last twelve months.


TTM20222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio2.63%2.45%2.02%1.85%1.81%2.09%1.53%1.61%1.56%1.54%1.40%1.53%
AVUS
Avantis U.S. Equity ETF
1.54%1.61%1.11%1.23%0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
AVUV
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
1.91%1.76%1.32%1.26%0.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
RPV
Invesco S&P 500® Pure Value ETF
2.70%2.33%2.00%2.25%2.50%2.79%1.99%2.03%2.85%1.91%1.40%1.86%
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
1.64%1.42%1.56%1.16%1.52%1.69%1.30%1.33%1.65%1.39%1.15%1.91%
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate ETF
3.69%4.00%2.71%4.28%3.85%5.57%5.21%6.19%5.28%5.05%6.30%5.41%
SPTI
SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF
2.59%1.47%0.55%0.78%2.11%2.11%1.59%1.36%1.32%1.19%1.68%2.42%
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF
2.71%1.17%0.69%1.81%2.41%1.94%1.21%0.92%0.79%0.52%0.38%0.60%
AVEM
Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
2.73%2.80%2.71%1.71%0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
AVDE
Avantis International Equity ETF
2.80%2.84%2.58%1.75%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
AVDV
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF
3.29%3.23%2.52%1.80%0.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
DFIVX
DFA International Value Portfolio
3.84%3.86%4.77%2.70%4.23%7.84%3.59%4.38%4.66%6.80%3.95%4.68%
FNDC
Schwab Fundamental International Small Co. Index ETF
2.22%1.99%2.65%1.86%2.91%2.95%2.19%2.26%1.53%1.93%0.78%0.00%
VTIP
Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF
5.07%6.89%5.04%1.35%2.23%2.85%1.81%0.92%0.00%1.00%0.06%0.13%

Expense Ratio

The Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio features an expense ratio of 0.19%, falling within the medium range. Below you can find the expense ratios of portfolio funds side-by-side and effortlessly compare their relative costs.


0.39%
0.00%2.15%
0.36%
0.00%2.15%
0.35%
0.00%2.15%
0.33%
0.00%2.15%
0.30%
0.00%2.15%
0.25%
0.00%2.15%
0.23%
0.00%2.15%
0.15%
0.00%2.15%
0.12%
0.00%2.15%
0.07%
0.00%2.15%
0.06%
0.00%2.15%
0.04%
0.00%2.15%

Risk-Adjusted Performance

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.


Sharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioUlcer Index
AVUS
Avantis U.S. Equity ETF
0.75
AVUV
Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF
0.50
RPV
Invesco S&P 500® Pure Value ETF
0.13
IJR
iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF
0.15
VNQ
Vanguard Real Estate ETF
-0.29
SPTI
SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF
-0.11
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF
0.72
AVEM
Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF
0.66
AVDE
Avantis International Equity ETF
1.14
AVDV
Avantis International Small Cap Value ETF
1.10
DFIVX
DFA International Value Portfolio
1.44
FNDC
Schwab Fundamental International Small Co. Index ETF
0.93
VTIP
Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities ETF
0.48

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way.


-15.00%-10.00%-5.00%AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptember
-9.81%
-9.93%
Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio
Benchmark (^GSPC)
Portfolio components

Worst Drawdowns

The table below shows the maximum drawdowns of the Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is an indicator of risk. It shows a reduction in portfolio value from its maximum due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown since January 2010 for the Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio is 32.98%, recorded on Mar 23, 2020. It took 166 trading sessions for the portfolio to recover.


Depth

Start

To Bottom

Bottom

To Recover

End

Total

-32.98%Jan 21, 202044Mar 23, 2020166Nov 16, 2020210
-20.17%Jan 5, 2022183Sep 27, 2022
-5.92%Nov 9, 202116Dec 1, 202123Jan 4, 202239
-5.6%Jun 9, 202128Jul 19, 202166Oct 20, 202194
-4.2%Mar 16, 20217Mar 24, 202115Apr 15, 202122

Volatility Chart

The current Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio volatility is 2.95%, representing the average percentage change in the investments's value, either up or down over the past month. The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%5.50%AprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptember
2.95%
3.41%
Paul Merriman's Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio
Benchmark (^GSPC)
Portfolio components