Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Blend Equities | 50% |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | Foreign Large Cap Equities | 30% |
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | Total Bond Market | 20% |
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Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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Returns By Period
As of Jul 16, 2026, the Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio returned 10.31% Year-To-Date and 10.93% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| Position | 1D | 1M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.38% | 0.24% | 9.32% | 10.62% | 21.28% | 18.90% | 11.84% | 13.36% |
Portfolio Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio | 0.30% | -0.47% | 8.04% | 10.31% | 21.18% | 16.36% | 9.39% | 10.93% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 0.17% | -0.32% | -0.21% | 0.27% | 4.37% | 3.91% | -0.16% | 1.47% |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 0.31% | -1.65% | 9.93% | 14.16% | 29.27% | 18.11% | 10.12% | 10.17% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.34% | 0.26% | 9.87% | 11.75% | 23.09% | 20.04% | 12.43% | 14.75% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jul 26, 2007, Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio's average daily return is +0.04%, while the average monthly return is +0.70%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 8.3 years.
Historically, 65% of months were positive and 35% were negative. The best month was Nov 2020 with a return of +10.4%, while the worst month was Oct 2008 at -15.6%. The longest winning streak lasted 15 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 6 months.
On a daily basis, Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Oct 13, 2008 with a return of +11.6%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -9.1%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.63% | 1.94% | -5.52% | 7.48% | 4.03% | -0.24% | 0.05% | 10.31% | |||||
| 2025 | 2.97% | 0.17% | -2.83% | 0.90% | 4.53% | 3.93% | 0.68% | 2.72% | 2.71% | 1.76% | 0.54% | 0.89% | 20.43% |
| 2024 | 0.20% | 3.21% | 2.92% | -3.68% | 4.11% | 1.22% | 2.32% | 2.23% | 1.60% | -2.40% | 3.75% | -2.90% | 12.88% |
| 2023 | 6.83% | -2.78% | 2.68% | 1.44% | -1.14% | 4.67% | 2.75% | -2.29% | -4.04% | -2.64% | 8.25% | 5.04% | 19.39% |
| 2022 | -4.60% | -2.26% | 1.23% | -7.39% | 0.55% | -7.16% | 6.73% | -4.17% | -8.41% | 5.63% | 7.12% | -3.75% | -16.74% |
| 2021 | -0.55% | 1.99% | 2.43% | 3.61% | 1.32% | 1.14% | 1.26% | 1.79% | -3.46% | 4.31% | -2.09% | 3.14% | 15.63% |
Benchmark Metrics
Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio has an annualized alpha of 0.77%, beta of 0.77, and R2 of 0.95 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since July 26, 2007.
- This portfolio participated in 84.36% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 80.92% of its upside - more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
- Alpha
- 0.77%
- Beta
- 0.77
- R²
- 0.95
- Upside Capture
- 80.92%
- Downside Capture
- 84.36%
Expense Ratio
Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.03%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio ranks 61 for risk / return — better than 61% of Portfolios on our site. You're getting solid returns for the risk taken. A good sign, especially for investors who want growth without excessive volatility.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.87 | 1.70 | +0.17 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.62 | 2.34 | +0.27 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.34 | 1.31 | +0.03 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.61 | 2.35 | +0.26 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 11.19 | 10.19 | +1.00 |
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 39 | 1.18 | 1.75 | 1.21 | 1.64 | 4.49 |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 65 | 1.73 | 2.37 | 1.32 | 2.53 | 9.58 |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 70 | 1.81 | 2.49 | 1.32 | 2.60 | 11.39 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio provided a 2.09% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.09% | 2.30% | 2.37% | 2.28% | 2.23% | 1.98% | 1.80% | 2.34% | 2.59% | 2.19% | 2.38% | 2.38% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 3.99% | 3.86% | 3.67% | 3.09% | 2.60% | 2.12% | 2.38% | 2.72% | 2.81% | 2.54% | 2.51% | 2.57% |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 2.56% | 3.22% | 3.35% | 3.15% | 2.91% | 3.16% | 2.04% | 3.04% | 3.35% | 2.77% | 3.05% | 2.92% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.05% | 1.12% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.66% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio was 47.73%, occurring on Mar 9, 2009. Recovery took 539 trading sessions.
The current Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio drawdown is 0.67%.
Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater | Related event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-47.73%Mar 2009 | 1y 4mo | 2y 1mo | 3y 5moNov 2007 - Apr 2011 | Financial crisis2007–2009 |
-28.12%Mar 2020 | 1mo 9d | 4mo 16d | 5mo 25dFeb 2020 - Aug 2020 | COVID crash2020 |
-24.44%Oct 2022 | 11mo 9d | 1y 3mo | 2y 3moNov 2021 - Feb 2024 | Bear market2022 |
-17.25%Oct 2011 | 5mo 4d | 5mo 12d | 10mo 16dMay 2011 - Mar 2012 | — |
-15.25%Dec 2018 | 10mo 29d | 4mo | 1y 2moJan 2018 - Apr 2019 | Rate-hike selloffLate 2018 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
AI Analysis
The gist
The portfolio is really a two-risk portfolio: U.S. equities through Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) and foreign equities through Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA), with Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) mostly acting as ballast. The bond sleeve helps, but the diversification math says the portfolio is still mostly one global equity bet, just with a passport.
The numbers
- Diversification ratio is 1.08 in 1Y and 1.09-1.11 over longer windows, around the 13th-26th percentile on the platform; that is modest diversification benefit, not much more.
- Effective number of assets is 2.63 of 3, which says the weights are spread, but the correlation structure does the usual market thing and pulls them back together.
- VTI and VEA correlate at 0.83, while BND sits at -0.13 with VTI and -0.07 with VEA; the bond sleeve is the only real independent mover.
The good
- BND gives the portfolio a genuinely different earnings driver, and that matters more than the tidy three-fund label.
- The weights are not wildly concentrated: 50/30/20 is simple, readable, and not doing anything exotic with leverage or single-name risk.
The bad
- VTI and VEA sit in the same cluster, with position-to-portfolio correlations of 0.97 and 0.94; in practice, they behave like one equity sleeve with different labels.
- The DR staying near 1.1 across 1Y to inception says the portfolio has not recently discovered some hidden diversification trick.
The ugly
- In a global equity selloff driven by growth, policy tightening, or a risk-off dollar move, the VTI/VEA correlation can matter more than the country labels, and BND may not fully offset the drawdown if rates rise at the same time.
Next steps
- Portfolios with this correlation profile are often paired with sleeves whose return drivers sit outside the equity-and-duration mix, because that is where diversification usually starts behaving like a noun instead of a slogan.
- The data fit a portfolio expressing a broad equity allocation with some interest-rate exposure, more than a portfolio built to be truly multi-engine.
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 3 assets, with an effective number of assets of 2.63, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is well-distributed across most of your holdings, with only mild concentration in a few names. True diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.08 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 1.09 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.09, placing it in the bottom quartile across portfolios — positions are highly correlated. Consider adding assets from different classes or sectors to reduce risk.
Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.95 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.94 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.95 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.95 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jul 26, 2007 | 0.96 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. VTI has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.99, while BND has the lowest at -0.13.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio is missing
See which holdings overlap, where Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
Analyze Diversification