Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Blend Equities | 50% |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | Foreign Large Cap Equities | 30% |
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | Total Bond Market | 20% |
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Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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Returns By Period
As of Jun 5, 2026, the Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio returned 10.67% Year-To-Date and 11.10% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.41% | 2.98% | 10.79% | 10.39% | 27.70% | 21.07% | 12.39% | 13.65% |
Portfolio Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio | 0.34% | 2.03% | 10.67% | 11.29% | 25.31% | 18.14% | 9.50% | 11.10% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 0.14% | 0.23% | 0.41% | 0.44% | 4.60% | 4.01% | 0.11% | 1.61% |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 0.24% | 4.15% | 15.19% | 18.13% | 32.11% | 20.11% | 9.65% | 10.13% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.47% | 4.59% | 11.72% | 11.43% | 28.79% | 22.37% | 12.80% | 15.04% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jul 27, 2007, Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio's average daily return is +0.04%, while the average monthly return is +0.72%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 8.1 years.
Historically, 65% of months were positive and 35% were negative. The best month was Nov 2020 with a return of +10.4%, while the worst month was Oct 2008 at -15.6%. The longest winning streak lasted 15 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 6 months.
On a daily basis, Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Oct 13, 2008 with a return of +11.6%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -9.1%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.63% | 1.94% | -5.52% | 7.48% | 4.03% | 0.13% | 10.67% | ||||||
| 2025 | 2.97% | 0.17% | -2.83% | 0.90% | 4.53% | 3.93% | 0.68% | 2.72% | 2.71% | 1.76% | 0.54% | 0.89% | 20.43% |
| 2024 | 0.20% | 3.21% | 2.92% | -3.68% | 4.11% | 1.22% | 2.32% | 2.23% | 1.60% | -2.40% | 3.75% | -2.90% | 12.88% |
| 2023 | 6.83% | -2.78% | 2.68% | 1.44% | -1.14% | 4.67% | 2.75% | -2.29% | -4.04% | -2.64% | 8.25% | 5.04% | 19.39% |
| 2022 | -4.60% | -2.26% | 1.23% | -7.39% | 0.55% | -7.16% | 6.73% | -4.17% | -8.41% | 5.63% | 7.12% | -3.75% | -16.74% |
| 2021 | -0.55% | 1.99% | 2.43% | 3.61% | 1.32% | 1.14% | 1.26% | 1.79% | -3.46% | 4.31% | -2.09% | 3.14% | 15.63% |
Benchmark Metrics
Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio has an annualized alpha of 0.78%, beta of 0.77, and R2 of 0.95 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since July 27, 2007.
- This portfolio participated in 84.65% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 81.13% of its upside - more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
- Alpha
- 0.78%
- Beta
- 0.77
- R²
- 0.95
- Upside Capture
- 81.13%
- Downside Capture
- 84.65%
Expense Ratio
Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.03%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio ranks 50 for risk / return — on par with similar Portfolios. You're getting a typical balance of risk and reward. Not a standout, but not a red flag either — a reasonable choice if other factors align with your goals.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 2.36 | 2.28 | +0.08 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 3.33 | 3.12 | +0.21 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.43 | 1.41 | +0.02 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 3.06 | 2.98 | +0.08 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 13.65 | 13.78 | -0.13 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 35 | 1.24 | 1.84 | 1.22 | 1.73 | 5.21 |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 61 | 2.06 | 2.84 | 1.37 | 2.77 | 10.82 |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 73 | 2.38 | 3.24 | 1.43 | 3.24 | 14.94 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio provided a 2.08% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.08% | 2.30% | 2.37% | 2.28% | 2.23% | 1.98% | 1.80% | 2.34% | 2.59% | 2.19% | 2.38% | 2.38% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 3.96% | 3.86% | 3.67% | 3.09% | 2.60% | 2.12% | 2.38% | 2.72% | 2.81% | 2.54% | 2.51% | 2.57% |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 2.61% | 3.22% | 3.35% | 3.15% | 2.91% | 3.16% | 2.04% | 3.04% | 3.35% | 2.77% | 3.05% | 2.92% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.01% | 1.12% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.66% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio was 47.73%, occurring on Mar 9, 2009. Recovery took 539 trading sessions.
The current Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio drawdown is 0.35%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Financial crisis2007–2009 | -47.73%Mar 2009 | 1y 4mo | 2y 1mo | 3y 5moNov 2007 - Apr 2011 |
COVID crash2020 | -28.12%Mar 2020 | 1mo 9d | 4mo 16d | 5mo 25dFeb 2020 - Aug 2020 |
Bear market2022 | -24.44%Oct 2022 | 11mo 9d | 1y 3mo | 2y 3moNov 2021 - Feb 2024 |
2011 correction2011 | -17.25%Oct 2011 | 5mo 4d | 5mo 12d | 10mo 16dMay 2011 - Mar 2012 |
Rate-hike selloffLate 2018 | -15.25%Dec 2018 | 10mo 29d | 4mo | 1y 2moJan 2018 - Apr 2019 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
AI Analysis
Thesis
The portfolio is a straightforward global-market allocation: U.S. equities via Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), foreign developed equities via Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (VEA), and the bond market via Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND). In practice, it is mostly a two-equity-book with a bond sleeve hanging off the side, which is a perfectly respectable thing for a portfolio to be.
The numbers
- The diversification ratio is 1.09 to 1.11 across horizons, landing in roughly the 14th to 27th percentile on the platform; that is weak diversification benefit.
- Effective asset count is 2.63 of 3, so the weights are spread, but not in a way that creates much independence.
- VTI and VEA correlate at 0.83, and both have high portfolio correlation (0.97 and 0.94), which is why the equity sleeves behave as one cluster.
What works
- BND has low or slightly negative correlation with the equity sleeves (-0.13 with VTI, -0.07 with VEA), so it is doing the classical bond thing.
- The portfolio is broad by geography and asset class, so it avoids single-country or single-sector fragility.
What does not
- The main diversification problem is the equity pair: VTI and VEA are distinct holdings, but they are still mostly one equity risk factor in different jackets.
- The bond sleeve is only 20%, so it can dampen the portfolio, but it cannot dominate the correlation structure.
Stress Scenario
- A global equity drawdown driven by recession, rates, or earnings compression would likely hit VTI and VEA together, leaving BND as the only meaningful offset.
- If inflation or policy surprises also pressure duration, even the bond sleeve stops being the quiet one in the room.
Worth knowing
- Portfolios like this often look more diversified in labels than in drawdown mechanics.
- The correlation profile fits a portfolio expressing a view on broad equity markets with a modest defensive bond component, rather than a portfolio built to be hard to synchronize.
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 3 assets, with an effective number of assets of 2.63, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is well-distributed across most of your holdings, with only mild concentration in a few names. True diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.09 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 1.09 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.09, placing it in the bottom quartile across portfolios — positions are highly correlated. Consider adding assets from different classes or sectors to reduce risk.
Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.95 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.94 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.95 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.95 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jul 27, 2007 | 0.96 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. VTI has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.99, while BND has the lowest at -0.14.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio is missing
See which holdings overlap, where Bogleheads Three-fund Portfolio is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
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