Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds, Short-Term Bond | 25% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds, Long-Term Bond | 25% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | Gold, Precious Metals | 25% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Blend Equities | 25% |
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Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in "Permanent", comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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Returns By Period
As of Jun 6, 2026, the "Permanent" returned 2.46% Year-To-Date and 7.21% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.30% | 0.09% | 8.18% | 8.17% | 23.42% | 19.88% | 11.91% | 13.45% |
Portfolio "Permanent" | 0.03% | -2.32% | 2.46% | 3.20% | 15.65% | 13.13% | 6.30% | 7.21% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.26% | -8.41% | 0.24% | 3.07% | 30.18% | 29.71% | 17.55% | 12.56% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.05% | -0.19% | 0.34% | 0.74% | 3.33% | 4.04% | 1.70% | 1.63% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.52% | -1.31% | -1.08% | -1.51% | 3.67% | -2.05% | -6.70% | -1.85% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.30% | 0.44% | 9.05% | 8.94% | 24.96% | 21.05% | 12.25% | 14.84% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Nov 19, 2004, "Permanent"'s average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.61%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 9.5 years.
Historically, 63% of months were positive and 37% were negative. The best month was Dec 2008 with a return of +6.5%, while the worst month was Oct 2008 at -8.6%. The longest winning streak lasted 11 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 8 months.
On a daily basis, "Permanent" closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +3.4%, while the worst single day was Mar 18, 2020 at -3.3%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.50% | 3.48% | -5.46% | 2.08% | 1.18% | -2.02% | 2.46% | ||||||
| 2025 | 2.68% | 1.57% | 0.83% | 1.04% | 0.67% | 2.21% | 0.11% | 2.07% | 4.81% | 1.87% | 1.61% | -0.01% | 21.21% |
| 2024 | -0.56% | 0.81% | 3.27% | -2.05% | 2.46% | 1.29% | 3.02% | 1.81% | 2.52% | -0.64% | 1.41% | -2.62% | 11.03% |
| 2023 | 5.27% | -3.39% | 4.28% | 0.63% | -1.08% | 1.11% | 0.93% | -1.48% | -4.35% | -0.12% | 5.59% | 4.09% | 11.45% |
| 2022 | -3.08% | 0.45% | -0.57% | -5.27% | -1.29% | -2.84% | 2.39% | -3.03% | -5.46% | 0.05% | 5.33% | -1.44% | -14.26% |
| 2021 | -1.79% | -2.16% | -0.55% | 2.80% | 2.09% | -0.27% | 2.04% | 0.60% | -2.69% | 2.56% | 0.13% | 1.22% | 3.83% |
Benchmark Metrics
"Permanent" has an annualized alpha of 5.59%, beta of 0.19, and R2 of 0.23 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since November 19, 2004.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (32.82%) than losses (15.40%) - typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- Beta of 0.19 may look defensive, but with R2 of 0.23 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index - low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R2 of 0.23 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index - capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 5.59%
- Beta
- 0.19
- R²
- 0.23
- Upside Capture
- 32.82%
- Downside Capture
- 15.40%
Expense Ratio
"Permanent" has an expense ratio of 0.18%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
"Permanent" ranks 21 for risk / return — below 21% of Portfolios on our site. The returns aren't fully compensating for the risk involved. This isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, but factor it into your decision — especially if you're risk-averse.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for "Permanent" and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.68 | 1.94 | -0.26 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.21 | 2.63 | -0.42 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.33 | 1.35 | -0.03 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.04 | 2.59 | -0.55 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 6.77 | 11.84 | -5.07 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 33 | 1.13 | 1.51 | 1.23 | 1.51 | 3.78 |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 86 | 2.51 | 4.11 | 1.51 | 3.76 | 15.12 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 15 | 0.38 | 0.62 | 1.07 | 0.49 | 1.19 |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 68 | 2.02 | 2.73 | 1.36 | 2.81 | 12.85 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
"Permanent" provided a 2.34% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.34% | 2.34% | 2.37% | 1.95% | 1.41% | 0.74% | 0.97% | 1.54% | 1.60% | 1.28% | 1.31% | 1.28% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.69% | 3.81% | 3.92% | 2.99% | 1.30% | 0.26% | 0.94% | 2.12% | 1.72% | 0.98% | 0.71% | 0.54% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.63% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.03% | 1.12% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.66% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the "Permanent". A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the "Permanent" was 19.44%, occurring on Oct 20, 2022. Recovery took 393 trading sessions.
The current "Permanent" drawdown is 4.46%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bear market2022 | -19.44%Oct 2022 | 11mo 14d | 1y 6mo | 2y 6moNov 2021 - May 2024 |
Financial crisis2007–2009 | -15.11%Nov 2008 | 7mo 29d | 10mo 2d | 1y 5moMar 2008 - Sep 2009 |
COVID crash2020 | -11.14%Mar 2020 | 9d | 29d | 1mo 8dMar 2020 - Apr 2020 |
2013 pullback2013 | -8.10%Jun 2013 | 8mo 24d | 8mo 21d | 1y 5moOct 2012 - Mar 2014 |
2026 pullback2026 | -7.72%Mar 2026 | 23d | — | 3mo 8dMar 2026 - now |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 4 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is spread almost evenly across your holdings, indicating a well-balanced allocation. Note that true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.40 | 1.51 | 1.53 | 1.64 | 1.78 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.78, in line with the typical range across portfolios. There's room to improve by adding less correlated assets.
"Permanent" correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.56 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.56 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.54 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.48 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Nov 19, 2004 | 0.44 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. VTI has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.99, while TLT has the lowest at -0.24.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what "Permanent" is missing
See which holdings overlap, where "Permanent" is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
Analyze Diversification