VGSH vs. CTA

Last updated Jun 14, 2026

VGSH (Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF) and CTA (Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - VGSH is a Government Bonds fund tracking the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury 1-3 Year Index, while CTA is a Systematic Trend fund actively managed by Simplify. VGSH is passively managed, while CTA is actively managed. Over the past 3 years, VGSH returned 4.25%/yr vs 9.41%/yr for CTA. At a correlation of -0.36, they often move in opposite directions. VGSH charges 0.03%/yr vs 0.78%/yr for CTA.

Performance

VGSH vs. CTA - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF (CTA). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, VGSH achieves a 0.57% return, which is significantly lower than CTA's 6.10% return.

VGSH

• 1D: -0.03%
• 1M: 0.16%
• YTD: 0.57%
• 6M: 0.83%
• 1Y: 3.36%
• 3Y*: 4.25%
• 5Y*: 1.83%
• 10Y*: 1.73%

CTA

• 1D: -1.22%
• 1M: -10.45%
• YTD: 6.10%
• 6M: 8.48%
• 1Y: 6.45%
• 3Y*: 9.41%
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

VGSH vs. CTA - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF	0.57%	5.07%	4.00%	4.31%	-2.65%
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF	6.10%	0.88%	24.15%	-2.23%	9.01%

Correlation

The correlation between VGSH and CTA is -0.28, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.28
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	-0.36
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 8, 2022	-0.36

Return for Risk

VGSH vs. CTA — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

VGSH

VGSH Risk / Return Rank: 88
VGSH Sharpe Ratio Rank: 90
VGSH Sortino Ratio Rank: 94
VGSH Omega Ratio Rank: 92
VGSH Calmar Ratio Rank: 81
VGSH Martin Ratio Rank: 84

CTA

CTA Risk / Return Rank: 14
CTA Sharpe Ratio Rank: 14
CTA Sortino Ratio Rank: 13
CTA Omega Ratio Rank: 14
CTA Calmar Ratio Rank: 15
CTA Martin Ratio Rank: 16

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

VGSH vs. CTA - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF (CTA). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	VGSH	CTA	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	2.61	0.28	+2.33
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	4.30	0.50	+3.80
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.55	1.07	+0.49
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	3.76	0.44	+3.32
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	14.67	1.24	+13.43

VGSH vs. CTA - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current VGSH Sharpe Ratio is 2.61, which is higher than the CTA Sharpe Ratio of 0.28. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of VGSH and CTA, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

VGSH vs. CTA - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum VGSH drawdown since its inception was -5.70%, smaller than the maximum CTA drawdown of -18.07%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for VGSH and CTA.

Drawdown Indicators

	VGSH	CTA	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-5.70%	-18.07%	+12.37%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-0.88%	-12.94%	+12.06%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-0.97%	-12.94%	+11.97%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-5.66%	—	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-5.70%	—	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-0.21%	-12.94%	+12.73%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-0.60%	-5.71%	+5.11%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	0.23%	4.57%	-4.34%

Volatility

VGSH vs. CTA - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) is 0.37%, while Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF (CTA) has a volatility of 6.16%. This indicates that VGSH experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than CTA based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	VGSH	CTA	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	0.37%	6.16%	-5.79%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	0.90%	17.59%	-16.69%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	1.28%	20.33%	-19.05%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	1.97%	16.61%	-14.64%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	1.58%	16.61%	-15.03%

VGSH vs. CTA - Expense Ratio Comparison

VGSH has a 0.03% expense ratio, which is lower than CTA's 0.78% expense ratio.

Dividends

VGSH vs. CTA - Dividend Comparison

VGSH's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.87%, less than CTA's 5.13% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF	5.13%	3.19%	4.80%	7.78%	6.58%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF	3.87%	4.00%	4.18%	3.31%	1.15%	0.66%	1.74%	2.28%	1.79%	1.10%	0.84%	0.69%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both VGSH and CTA in my portfolio?

VGSH and CTA have a correlation of -0.28, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, VGSH or CTA?

CTA has higher volatility (6.16%) compared to VGSH (0.37%). In terms of maximum drawdown, VGSH dropped -5.70% vs CTA's -18.07%.

Which ETF is better, VGSH or CTA?

On 3-year performance, CTA leads with 9.41% vs 4.25% for VGSH. On fees, VGSH is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, VGSH has been the lower-risk option at 0.37%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, VGSH or CTA?

Over the 3-year period, CTA has performed better with a 9.41% return vs 4.25%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, VGSH or CTA?

VGSH is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 0.78% for CTA.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, VGSH or CTA?

CTA has the higher dividend yield at 5.13%, compared with 3.87% for VGSH.

What is the main difference between VGSH and CTA?

VGSH is categorized as Government Bonds, while CTA is Systematic Trend. They also come from different issuers: Vanguard and Simplify. Their fees differ too: 0.03% for VGSH and 0.78% for CTA.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

VGSH currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.61 vs 0.28), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.