BTC vs. SMST

Last updated Jul 15, 2026

BTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF) and SMST (Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - BTC is a Cryptocurrency fund actively managed by Grayscale, while SMST is a Inverse Equities fund actively managed by Defiance. Both are actively managed. Over the past year, BTC returned -46.27% vs 223.39% for SMST. At a correlation of -0.78, they often move in opposite directions. BTC charges 0.15%/yr vs 1.29%/yr for SMST.

Performance

BTC vs. SMST - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) and Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, BTC achieves a -26.28% return, which is significantly higher than SMST's -36.68% return.

BTC

• 1D: 3.74%
• 1M: 1.49%
• 6M: -31.73%
• YTD: -26.28%
• 1Y: -46.27%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

SMST

• 1D: -12.10%
• 1M: 26.91%
• 6M: -13.52%
• YTD: -36.68%
• 1Y: 223.39%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

BTC vs. SMST - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024
BTC Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF	-26.28%	-7.50%	58.60%
SMST Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF	-36.68%	-44.36%	-91.71%

Correlation

The correlation between BTC and SMST is -0.84, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.84
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Aug 21, 2024	-0.78

The correlation between BTC and SMST has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.84 to -0.78 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

BTC vs. SMST — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

BTC

BTC Risk / Return Rank: 2
BTC Sharpe Ratio Rank: 1
BTC Sortino Ratio Rank: 2
BTC Omega Ratio Rank: 2
BTC Calmar Ratio Rank: 2
BTC Martin Ratio Rank: 2

SMST

SMST Risk / Return Rank: 56
SMST Sharpe Ratio Rank: 55
SMST Sortino Ratio Rank: 60
SMST Omega Ratio Rank: 61
SMST Calmar Ratio Rank: 66
SMST Martin Ratio Rank: 40

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

BTC vs. SMST - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) and Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	BTC	SMST	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-1.05	1.51	-2.55
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-1.58	2.28	-3.86
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.83	1.30	-0.47
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.87	2.63	-3.50
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.41	5.07	-6.48

BTC vs. SMST - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current BTC Sharpe Ratio is -1.05, which is lower than the SMST Sharpe Ratio of 1.51. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of BTC and SMST, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

BTC vs. SMST - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum BTC drawdown since its inception was -53.30%, smaller than the maximum SMST drawdown of -99.25%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for BTC and SMST.

Drawdown Indicators

	BTC	SMST	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-53.30%	-99.25%	+45.95%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-53.30%	-85.39%	+32.09%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-48.62%	-97.51%	+48.89%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-18.61%	-90.91%	+72.30%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	32.80%	44.25%	-11.45%

Volatility

BTC vs. SMST - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF (BTC) is 11.65%, while Defiance Daily Target 2X Short MSTR ETF (SMST) has a volatility of 57.45%. This indicates that BTC experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than SMST based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	BTC	SMST	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	11.65%	57.45%	-45.80%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	34.96%	136.03%	-101.07%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	44.40%	149.51%	-105.11%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	48.00%	167.79%	-119.79%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	48.00%	167.79%	-119.79%

BTC vs. SMST - Expense Ratio Comparison

BTC has a 0.15% expense ratio, which is lower than SMST's 1.29% expense ratio.

Dividends

BTC vs. SMST - Dividend Comparison

Neither BTC nor SMST has paid dividends to shareholders.

Tickers have no history of dividend payments

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both BTC and SMST in my portfolio?

BTC and SMST have a correlation of -0.84, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, BTC or SMST?

SMST has higher volatility (57.45%) compared to BTC (11.65%). In terms of maximum drawdown, BTC dropped -53.30% vs SMST's -99.25%.

Which ETF is better, BTC or SMST?

On 1-year performance, SMST leads with 223.39% vs -46.27% for BTC. On fees, BTC is cheaper at 0.15% per year. On volatility, BTC has been the lower-risk option at 11.65%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, BTC or SMST?

Over the 1-year period, SMST has performed better with a 223.39% return vs -46.27%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, BTC or SMST?

BTC is cheaper with a 0.15% expense ratio, compared with 1.29% for SMST.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, BTC or SMST?

BTC and SMST have nearly identical dividend yields, around 0.00%.

What is the main difference between BTC and SMST?

BTC is categorized as Cryptocurrency, while SMST is Inverse Equities. They also come from different issuers: Grayscale and Defiance. Their fees differ too: 0.15% for BTC and 1.29% for SMST.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

SMST currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.51 vs -1.05), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.