There are only 4 markets! ETF version
There are only 4 kinds of capital markets and you can win if you can find 4 uncorrelated assets for each phases of the market which make more money in their respective cycles than they lose during other phases. Here's an example (I have a better one - DM me if you want to see it):
1. Rising rates (inflation): Rising rates means USD is in demand ($UUP)
2. Falling rates (deflation): Money is shifting away from bonds to stocks but there will be winners and losers in this market. Managed long/short (e.g. $QLEIX) is a good idea.
3. Flattened high-rates (recession): Buy gold/commodities ($LCSIX) or consumer-stapes/utilities
4. Flattened low-rates (prosperity): Buy growth stocks ($VOOG or $PGTYX)
Asset Allocation
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in There are only 4 markets! ETF version, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Quarterly
The earliest data available for this chart is Nov 7, 2014, corresponding to the inception date of PDBC
Returns By Period
As of Dec 4, 2024, the There are only 4 markets! ETF version returned 12.77% Year-To-Date and 6.74% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y (annualized) | 10Y (annualized) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | 26.84% | 5.60% | 14.34% | 32.39% | 14.23% | 11.32% |
| There are only 4 markets! ETF version | 12.77% | 2.25% | 5.84% | 12.90% | 9.98% | 6.74% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 10.82% | 2.77% | 5.08% | 8.48% | 4.20% | 3.45% |
VUG Vanguard Growth ETF | 33.95% | 7.79% | 15.17% | 39.90% | 19.44% | 15.82% |
SPLV Invesco S&P 500® Low Volatility ETF | 19.82% | 4.30% | 13.78% | 22.38% | 7.36% | 9.29% |
PDBC Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF | 0.98% | -2.11% | -2.33% | -0.34% | 8.88% | 1.76% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of There are only 4 markets! ETF version, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.97% | 1.15% | 2.57% | 0.02% | 0.97% | 1.64% | -1.04% | 0.13% | 0.70% | 1.51% | 2.25% | 12.77% | |
| 2023 | 1.80% | -1.35% | 0.99% | 0.31% | -1.14% | 2.54% | 3.43% | -0.03% | -0.16% | -0.63% | 1.29% | -0.36% | 6.78% |
| 2022 | 0.50% | 1.32% | 5.37% | 0.90% | 0.65% | -3.61% | 2.59% | -0.75% | -4.24% | 3.41% | 0.70% | -3.27% | 3.14% |
| 2021 | 0.82% | 3.58% | 1.90% | 3.84% | 0.83% | 3.11% | 1.54% | 0.54% | 0.38% | 3.81% | -2.37% | 3.97% | 24.06% |
| 2020 | -1.40% | -4.51% | -8.61% | 2.66% | 3.52% | 2.10% | 2.86% | 3.47% | -2.00% | -2.04% | 5.21% | 2.15% | 2.52% |
| 2019 | 5.04% | 2.64% | 1.36% | 1.78% | -3.06% | 2.48% | 1.27% | -1.08% | 1.07% | 0.34% | 1.05% | 2.20% | 15.93% |
| 2018 | 1.55% | -1.79% | 0.30% | 1.89% | 2.45% | 0.01% | 0.25% | 1.69% | 1.20% | -3.12% | -2.45% | -4.01% | -2.27% |
| 2017 | -0.34% | 1.94% | -0.98% | -0.76% | -0.23% | -0.83% | 1.14% | 0.38% | 1.28% | 2.54% | 0.88% | 0.80% | 5.90% |
| 2016 | -2.69% | -0.43% | 2.25% | 2.43% | 1.95% | 2.41% | -1.62% | 0.11% | 1.01% | 0.09% | 1.87% | 2.31% | 9.94% |
| 2015 | -0.44% | 2.63% | -1.77% | 1.11% | -0.11% | -1.02% | -1.41% | -3.13% | -1.46% | 3.18% | -0.65% | -2.78% | -5.89% |
| 2014 | -1.27% | -2.13% | -3.37% |
Expense Ratio
There are only 4 markets! ETF version features an expense ratio of 0.49%, falling within the medium range. Below you can find the expense ratios of portfolio funds side-by-side and effortlessly compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
The current rank of There are only 4 markets! ETF version is 37, suggesting that the investment has average results relative to other portfolios in terms of risk-adjusted performance. This ranking is determined by the cumulative values of the indicators listed below.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 1.55 | 2.31 | 1.28 | 1.64 | 5.95 |
VUG Vanguard Growth ETF | 2.32 | 3.00 | 1.42 | 3.02 | 11.93 |
SPLV Invesco S&P 500® Low Volatility ETF | 2.35 | 3.26 | 1.42 | 2.65 | 15.60 |
PDBC Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF | -0.13 | -0.08 | 0.99 | -0.07 | -0.37 |
Dividends
Dividend yield
There are only 4 markets! ETF version provided a 3.69% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 3.69% | 4.03% | 5.08% | 17.11% | 0.48% | 1.65% | 1.28% | 1.84% | 2.73% | 0.61% | 0.58% | 0.64% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 5.82% | 6.45% | 0.89% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.03% | 1.08% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VUG Vanguard Growth ETF | 0.47% | 0.58% | 0.70% | 0.48% | 0.66% | 0.95% | 1.32% | 1.14% | 1.39% | 1.30% | 1.21% | 1.19% |
SPLV Invesco S&P 500® Low Volatility ETF | 1.84% | 2.45% | 2.11% | 1.50% | 2.13% | 2.08% | 2.17% | 2.03% | 2.03% | 2.28% | 2.20% | 2.60% |
PDBC Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF | 4.17% | 4.21% | 13.04% | 50.83% | 0.01% | 1.40% | 1.00% | 3.83% | 6.50% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the There are only 4 markets! ETF version. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the There are only 4 markets! ETF version was 18.56%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 188 trading sessions.
The current There are only 4 markets! ETF version drawdown is 0.41%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -18.56% | Feb 20, 2020 | 23 | Mar 23, 2020 | 188 | Dec 17, 2020 | 211 |
| -15.48% | Nov 24, 2014 | 304 | Feb 9, 2016 | 223 | Dec 27, 2016 | 527 |
| -12.12% | Oct 4, 2018 | 56 | Dec 24, 2018 | 132 | Jul 5, 2019 | 188 |
| -8.69% | Jun 9, 2022 | 145 | Jan 5, 2023 | 172 | Sep 13, 2023 | 317 |
| -4.83% | Jul 8, 2024 | 21 | Aug 5, 2024 | 42 | Oct 3, 2024 | 63 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The current There are only 4 markets! ETF version volatility is 1.79%, representing the average percentage change in the investments's value, either up or down over the past month. The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
Diversification
Asset Correlations Table
| UUP | PDBC | SPLV | VUG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUP | 1.00 | -0.20 | -0.12 | -0.13 |
| PDBC | -0.20 | 1.00 | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| SPLV | -0.12 | 0.16 | 1.00 | 0.61 |
| VUG | -0.13 | 0.23 | 0.61 | 1.00 |