Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds, Long-Term Bond | 40% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | S&P 500 | 40% |
GC=F Gold Futures | 20% |
Find the right asset allocation for 40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold
Add portfolio to the optimizer to find optimal allocations for your target — whether that's maximizing returns, minimizing drawdowns, or balancing risk across holdings.
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Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced when any position deviates by more than 15.0% from its target allocation.
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Returns By Period
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 1.65% | 1.97% | 10.35% | 10.82% | 26.39% | 19.66% | 12.33% | 13.81% |
Portfolio 40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold | 0.68% | 2.01% | 4.47% | 4.72% | 12.28% | 7.66% | — | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
GC=F Gold Futures | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 1.76% | 2.12% | 10.99% | 11.52% | 27.89% | 21.15% | 13.87% | 15.65% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.06% | 2.87% | 0.21% | 0.32% | 3.82% | -1.84% | -6.36% | -1.78% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jan 31, 2022, 40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold's average daily return is +0.01%, while the average monthly return is +0.30%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 19.3 years.
Historically, 61% of months were positive and 39% were negative. The best month was Nov 2023 with a return of +7.6%, while the worst month was Apr 2022 at -7.7%. The longest winning streak lasted 7 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 5 months.
On a daily basis, 40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold closed higher 53% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +4.4%, while the worst single day was Apr 10, 2025 at -2.9%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.59% | 1.50% | -3.65% | 3.75% | 2.30% | 0.07% | 4.47% | ||||||
| 2025 | 1.29% | 1.75% | -2.68% | -0.63% | 1.18% | 3.13% | 0.47% | 0.84% | 2.87% | 1.54% | 0.21% | -1.03% | 9.14% |
| 2024 | -0.25% | 1.17% | 1.63% | -4.19% | 3.18% | 2.15% | 1.96% | 1.85% | 1.67% | -2.54% | 3.21% | -3.52% | 6.13% |
| 2023 | 5.59% | -2.94% | 3.51% | 0.81% | -0.98% | 2.66% | 0.27% | -1.87% | -5.09% | -3.01% | 7.59% | 5.29% | 11.55% |
| 2022 | 0.50% | -0.59% | -0.22% | -7.65% | -0.66% | -3.76% | 4.66% | -3.40% | -6.96% | 0.78% | 5.14% | -3.30% | -15.18% |
Benchmark Metrics
40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold has an annualized alpha of -2.40%, beta of 0.44, and R2 of 0.58 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since January 31, 2022.
- This portfolio participated in 77.00% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 47.42% of its upside - more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
- This portfolio had an annualized alpha of -2.40% versus S&P 500 Index - delivering less than market exposure alone would predict.
- Beta of 0.44 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index - a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.
- Alpha
- -2.40%
- Beta
- 0.44
- R²
- 0.58
- Upside Capture
- 47.42%
- Downside Capture
- 77.00%
Expense Ratio
40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold has an expense ratio of 0.10%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold ranks 30 for risk / return — below 30% of Portfolios on our site. The returns aren't fully compensating for the risk involved. This isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, but factor it into your decision — especially if you're risk-averse.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for 40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.83 | 2.14 | -0.31 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.60 | 2.89 | -0.28 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.34 | 1.39 | -0.05 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.41 | 2.91 | -0.50 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 9.20 | 13.08 | -3.88 |
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC=F Gold Futures | — | — | — | — | — | — |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 77 | 2.27 | 3.05 | 1.41 | 3.15 | 14.24 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 15 | 0.40 | 0.65 | 1.07 | 0.51 | 1.22 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold provided a 2.22% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.22% | 2.20% | 2.20% | 1.91% | 1.73% | 1.08% | 1.21% | 1.61% | 1.87% | 1.69% | 1.85% | 1.87% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
GC=F Gold Futures | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 0.98% | 1.07% | 1.21% | 1.40% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 1.52% | 1.75% | 2.04% | 1.80% | 2.03% | 2.06% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.57% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the 40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold was 19.87%, occurring on Oct 20, 2022. Recovery took 457 trading sessions.
The current 40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold drawdown is 0.99%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bear market2022 | -19.87%Oct 2022 | 8mo 19d | 1y 10mo | 2y 6moFeb 2022 - Aug 2024 |
2025 selloff2025 | -9.21%Apr 2025 | 4mo | 3mo 18d | 7mo 18dDec 2024 - Jul 2025 |
2026 pullback2026 | -5.11%Mar 2026 | 29d | 21d | 1mo 20dFeb 2026 - Apr 2026 |
2024 pullback2024 | -3.30%Nov 2024 | 1mo 15d | 28d | 2mo 13dSep 2024 - Nov 2024 |
2025 pullback2025 | -3.08%Nov 2025 | 22d | 3mo 7d | 3mo 29dOct 2025 - Feb 2026 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 3 assets, with an effective number of assets of 2.78, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is spread almost evenly across your holdings, indicating a well-balanced allocation. Note that true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.29 | 1.32 | 1.42 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.42, in line with the typical range across portfolios. There's room to improve by adding less correlated assets.
40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.80 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.73 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 31, 2022 | 0.72 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. SPY has the highest benchmark correlation at 1.00, while GC=F has the lowest at -0.05.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what 40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold is missing
See which holdings overlap, where 40 Stocks 40 Long bonds 20 Gold is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
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