Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | Government Bonds | 10% |
DBMF iM DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | Hedge Fund, Actively Managed | 10% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | Large Cap Growth Equities | 20% |
SGOL abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF | Precious Metals, Gold | 15% |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | Government Bonds, Long-Term Bond | 25% |
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | Small Cap Value Equities | 20% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Modified all weather, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every year.
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The earliest data available for this chart is May 8, 2019, corresponding to the inception date of DBMF
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -3.43% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 16.08% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio Modified all weather | -0.08% | -2.94% | 2.33% | 5.92% | 19.78% | 13.28% | 7.76% | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.11% | -2.64% | -4.65% | -3.18% | 23.45% | 22.97% | 13.18% | 19.05% |
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | 0.30% | -2.49% | 4.91% | 7.32% | 22.22% | 10.40% | 5.03% | 9.69% |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 0.49% | -2.51% | 0.35% | -0.58% | 0.18% | -1.61% | -4.79% | -0.82% |
SGOL abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF | -1.96% | -8.34% | 8.35% | 21.12% | 49.31% | 32.79% | 21.78% | 14.16% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 0.02% | 0.31% | 0.90% | 1.85% | 4.01% | 4.71% | 3.28% | 2.13% |
DBMF iM DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 0.33% | 0.36% | 8.44% | 15.46% | 27.06% | 10.31% | 8.74% | — |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since May 9, 2019, Modified all weather's average daily return is +0.04%, while the average monthly return is +0.84%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 6.9 years.
Historically, 68% of months were positive and 32% were negative. The best month was Jan 2023 with a return of +6.9%, while the worst month was Sep 2022 at -5.2%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.
On a daily basis, Modified all weather closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +4.4%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -4.9%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.87% | 2.95% | -4.75% | 0.46% | 2.33% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 2.12% | -0.28% | -1.49% | -0.05% | 1.66% | 2.98% | 0.43% | 2.88% | 4.83% | 2.34% | 1.48% | 0.16% | 18.26% |
| 2024 | -1.10% | 1.44% | 3.10% | -2.53% | 2.92% | 1.55% | 3.04% | 0.49% | 2.18% | -1.33% | 3.18% | -2.78% | 10.34% |
| 2023 | 6.92% | -2.28% | 2.22% | 0.05% | 0.26% | 3.11% | 1.93% | -2.09% | -4.41% | -1.74% | 6.26% | 5.80% | 16.43% |
| 2022 | -3.76% | 0.49% | 0.74% | -5.08% | -0.92% | -3.44% | 3.32% | -2.82% | -5.22% | 2.16% | 3.01% | -2.85% | -13.93% |
| 2021 | -0.04% | 0.42% | 0.69% | 2.82% | 2.02% | 0.82% | 0.70% | 1.04% | -2.68% | 3.41% | 0.08% | 1.30% | 10.97% |
Benchmark Metrics
Modified all weather has an annualized alpha of 4.89%, beta of 0.39, and R² of 0.61 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since May 09, 2019.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (52.65%) than losses (48.82%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 4.89% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- Beta of 0.39 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index — a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.
- Alpha
- 4.89%
- Beta
- 0.39
- R²
- 0.61
- Upside Capture
- 52.65%
- Downside Capture
- 48.82%
Expense Ratio
Modified all weather has an expense ratio of 0.19%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Modified all weather ranks 82 for risk / return — in the top 82% of portfolios on our site. This means strong returns relative to risk — exactly what professional investors look for. Well-suited for investors who want to maximize return per unit of risk.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.79 | 0.88 | +0.91 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.53 | 1.37 | +1.17 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.35 | 1.21 | +0.15 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.93 | 1.39 | +1.54 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 11.06 | 6.43 | +4.62 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 59 | 1.04 | 1.62 | 1.23 | 1.93 | 7.00 |
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | 50 | 0.95 | 1.46 | 1.19 | 1.55 | 5.76 |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 11 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 1.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
SGOL abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF | 81 | 1.80 | 2.23 | 1.33 | 2.59 | 9.38 |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 100 | 19.57 | 254.91 | 180.89 | 367.86 | 4,130.10 |
DBMF iM DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 94 | 2.25 | 3.05 | 1.48 | 4.38 | 18.76 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Modified all weather provided a 2.50% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.50% | 2.54% | 2.63% | 2.18% | 2.14% | 1.90% | 1.05% | 2.22% | 1.38% | 1.16% | 1.12% | 1.26% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.48% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% |
VIOV Vanguard S&P Small-Cap 600 Value ETF | 1.75% | 1.69% | 1.78% | 2.18% | 1.81% | 1.59% | 1.42% | 1.60% | 1.76% | 1.43% | 1.17% | 1.32% |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 4.52% | 4.44% | 4.33% | 3.33% | 2.84% | 1.82% | 2.15% | 2.46% | 2.71% | 2.55% | 2.69% | 3.21% |
SGOL abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 3.96% | 4.13% | 5.03% | 4.92% | 1.35% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 2.05% | 1.66% | 0.68% | 0.07% | 0.00% |
DBMF iM DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 5.28% | 5.91% | 5.75% | 2.91% | 7.72% | 10.38% | 0.86% | 9.35% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Modified all weather. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Modified all weather was 17.35%, occurring on Oct 14, 2022. Recovery took 348 trading sessions.
The current Modified all weather drawdown is 4.34%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -17.35% | Nov 10, 2021 | 234 | Oct 14, 2022 | 348 | Mar 6, 2024 | 582 |
| -15.17% | Feb 21, 2020 | 19 | Mar 18, 2020 | 56 | Jun 8, 2020 | 75 |
| -9.39% | Dec 12, 2024 | 79 | Apr 8, 2025 | 45 | Jun 12, 2025 | 124 |
| -6.48% | Mar 3, 2026 | 19 | Mar 27, 2026 | — | — | — |
| -5.93% | Sep 3, 2020 | 14 | Sep 23, 2020 | 46 | Nov 27, 2020 | 60 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 6 assets, with an effective number of assets of 5.41, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets indicates a moderate level of diversification, where some assets may have a more significant influence on overall performance.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | BIL | VGLT | SGOL | DBMF | VIOV | QQQ | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | -0.00 | -0.06 | 0.08 | 0.18 | 0.73 | 0.92 | 0.78 |
| BIL | -0.00 | 1.00 | -0.00 | 0.04 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 |
| VGLT | -0.06 | -0.00 | 1.00 | 0.27 | -0.20 | -0.10 | -0.02 | 0.31 |
| SGOL | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.27 | 1.00 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.45 |
| DBMF | 0.18 | -0.02 | -0.20 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| VIOV | 0.73 | -0.01 | -0.10 | 0.06 | 0.14 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| QQQ | 0.92 | -0.00 | -0.02 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.74 |
| Portfolio | 0.78 | 0.01 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 0.28 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 1.00 |