Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
ABBV AbbVie Inc. | Healthcare | 5% |
AXON Axon Enterprise, Inc. | Industrials | 5% |
CSGP CoStar Group, Inc. | Real Estate | 5% |
DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | Basic Materials | 5% |
ECL Ecolab Inc. | Basic Materials | 5% |
ETR Entergy Corporation | Utilities | 10% |
EXPO Exponent, Inc. | Industrials | 5% |
HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | Healthcare | 5% |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | Technology | 5% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Technology | 15% |
OGE OGE Energy Corp. | Utilities | 10% |
PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. | Technology | 5% |
SLB Schlumberger Limited | Energy | 5% |
SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. | Communication Services | 5% |
TREX Trex Company, Inc. | Industrials | 10% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Guessing Very Best, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is never rebalanced.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Sep 30, 2020, corresponding to the inception date of PLTR
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -3.43% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 16.08% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio Guessing Very Best | 0.59% | -3.45% | -6.25% | -11.29% | 30.79% | 42.81% | 27.54% | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.93% | -1.47% | -4.88% | -6.08% | 60.69% | 85.17% | 66.71% | 70.07% |
OGE OGE Energy Corp. | 1.04% | -0.12% | 15.34% | 9.37% | 9.25% | 14.26% | 13.26% | 9.94% |
TREX Trex Company, Inc. | -2.76% | -11.45% | 1.37% | -32.22% | -40.72% | -10.36% | -17.81% | 11.46% |
ETR Entergy Corporation | 1.16% | 8.59% | 25.13% | 24.43% | 36.30% | 33.64% | 22.55% | 15.66% |
DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | -1.58% | -5.78% | 13.59% | -43.33% | -38.32% | -12.43% | -8.52% | — |
HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | 1.23% | -7.82% | -2.17% | 11.98% | 6.77% | -3.32% | 1.49% | 0.91% |
SLB Schlumberger Limited | -1.18% | 1.77% | 29.58% | 46.95% | 20.77% | 0.65% | 14.42% | -0.96% |
ECL Ecolab Inc. | -1.95% | -11.21% | 0.94% | -3.02% | 5.27% | 17.99% | 5.19% | 10.14% |
CSGP CoStar Group, Inc. | 0.81% | -14.60% | -40.59% | -52.38% | -50.01% | -16.56% | -14.24% | 8.01% |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | 1.11% | -7.54% | -22.60% | -27.29% | -1.52% | 10.00% | 9.94% | 22.58% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Oct 1, 2020, Guessing Very Best's average daily return is +0.12%, while the average monthly return is +2.43%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 2.4 years.
Historically, 66% of months were positive and 34% were negative. The best month was Nov 2020 with a return of +21.1%, while the worst month was Apr 2022 at -13.8%. The longest winning streak lasted 7 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.
On a daily basis, Guessing Very Best closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +13.2%, while the worst single day was Jan 27, 2025 at -8.1%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.72% | -2.19% | -2.28% | 0.83% | -6.25% | ||||||||
| 2025 | -0.48% | 1.32% | -6.65% | 5.88% | 13.49% | 9.32% | 7.56% | -0.55% | 5.95% | 5.27% | -11.91% | 3.23% | 34.14% |
| 2024 | 5.54% | 16.46% | 8.00% | -4.39% | 10.99% | 6.54% | 0.29% | 2.40% | 3.82% | 5.43% | 12.14% | -3.16% | 83.21% |
| 2023 | 9.31% | 0.49% | 5.75% | -0.28% | 5.95% | 8.03% | 7.04% | 0.14% | -5.78% | -3.50% | 9.66% | 4.61% | 48.24% |
| 2022 | -10.64% | -1.36% | 3.90% | -13.77% | 2.42% | -10.20% | 9.48% | -7.42% | -8.96% | 12.75% | 9.51% | -4.48% | -20.94% |
| 2021 | 7.09% | -3.63% | 0.71% | 5.59% | 0.68% | 5.92% | -1.26% | 6.70% | -5.77% | 9.04% | 3.63% | 0.52% | 31.96% |
Benchmark Metrics
Guessing Very Best has an annualized alpha of 13.31%, beta of 1.27, and R² of 0.69 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since October 01, 2020.
- This portfolio captured 148.59% of S&P 500 Index gains but only 79.99% of its losses — a favorable profile for investors.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 13.31% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- Alpha
- 13.31%
- Beta
- 1.27
- R²
- 0.69
- Upside Capture
- 148.59%
- Downside Capture
- 79.99%
Expense Ratio
Guessing Very Best has an expense ratio of 0.00%, meaning no management fees are charged. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Guessing Very Best ranks 30 for risk / return — below 30% of portfolios on our site. The returns aren't fully compensating for the risk involved. This isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, but factor it into your decision — especially if you're risk-averse.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.04 | 0.88 | +0.16 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 1.60 | 1.37 | +0.24 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.21 | 1.21 | 0.00 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 1.61 | 1.39 | +0.22 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 3.85 | 6.43 | -2.59 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 81 | 1.47 | 2.17 | 1.27 | 3.02 | 7.54 |
OGE OGE Energy Corp. | 56 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 2.18 |
TREX Trex Company, Inc. | 12 | -0.79 | -0.92 | 0.86 | -0.70 | -1.27 |
ETR Entergy Corporation | 86 | 1.76 | 2.35 | 1.32 | 4.31 | 11.30 |
DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | 18 | -0.56 | -0.21 | 0.94 | -0.66 | -1.23 |
HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | 46 | 0.24 | 0.56 | 1.07 | 0.42 | 0.96 |
SLB Schlumberger Limited | 55 | 0.52 | 0.98 | 1.13 | 0.85 | 1.45 |
ECL Ecolab Inc. | 45 | 0.25 | 0.48 | 1.06 | 0.30 | 0.86 |
CSGP CoStar Group, Inc. | 4 | -1.26 | -1.82 | 0.74 | -0.84 | -1.77 |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | 35 | -0.06 | 0.11 | 1.01 | -0.05 | -0.12 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Guessing Very Best provided a 1.17% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 1.17% | 1.31% | 1.28% | 1.44% | 1.30% | 1.25% | 1.52% | 1.37% | 1.50% | 1.34% | 1.41% | 1.61% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.46% | 0.29% | 0.45% | 1.20% |
OGE OGE Energy Corp. | 3.47% | 3.95% | 4.06% | 4.75% | 4.16% | 4.21% | 4.91% | 3.33% | 3.48% | 3.77% | 3.37% | 3.90% |
TREX Trex Company, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
ETR Entergy Corporation | 2.16% | 2.64% | 3.03% | 4.29% | 3.64% | 3.43% | 3.75% | 3.06% | 4.16% | 4.30% | 4.65% | 4.89% |
DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | 2.68% | 3.56% | 1.99% | 1.87% | 1.92% | 1.49% | 1.69% | 0.93% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SLB Schlumberger Limited | 2.33% | 2.97% | 2.87% | 1.92% | 1.22% | 2.09% | 4.01% | 4.98% | 5.54% | 2.97% | 2.38% | 2.87% |
ECL Ecolab Inc. | 1.04% | 1.02% | 1.01% | 1.09% | 1.42% | 0.83% | 0.87% | 0.96% | 1.15% | 1.13% | 1.21% | 1.17% |
CSGP CoStar Group, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | 0.93% | 0.70% | 0.73% | 0.74% | 1.06% | 0.68% | 0.94% | 1.20% | 1.69% | 1.86% | 2.37% | 2.33% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Guessing Very Best. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Guessing Very Best was 35.04%, occurring on Sep 30, 2022. Recovery took 175 trading sessions.
The current Guessing Very Best drawdown is 16.40%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -35.04% | Nov 22, 2021 | 216 | Sep 30, 2022 | 175 | Jun 13, 2023 | 391 |
| -26.66% | Feb 19, 2025 | 33 | Apr 4, 2025 | 40 | Jun 3, 2025 | 73 |
| -19.99% | Oct 30, 2025 | 67 | Feb 5, 2026 | — | — | — |
| -13.36% | Jun 20, 2024 | 32 | Aug 5, 2024 | 10 | Aug 19, 2024 | 42 |
| -12.67% | Feb 10, 2021 | 18 | Mar 8, 2021 | 67 | Jun 11, 2021 | 85 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 15 assets, with an effective number of assets of 12.50, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests that the portfolio's investments are spread across a variety of assets, indicating a well-diversified allocation. However, true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | ABBV | SLB | ETR | OGE | SPOT | HSIC | AXON | PLTR | EXPO | CSGP | NVDA | MSFT | DD | TREX | ECL | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 0.68 | 0.74 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.82 |
| ABBV | 0.28 | 1.00 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| SLB | 0.34 | 0.16 | 1.00 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.46 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| ETR | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.02 | 0.27 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.17 | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| OGE | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.31 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 0.23 | -0.00 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.39 | 0.18 |
| SPOT | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 1.00 | 0.11 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.16 | 0.34 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.49 |
| HSIC | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.43 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| AXON | 0.48 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.42 | 0.13 | 1.00 | 0.52 | 0.29 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.41 | 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.28 | 0.60 |
| PLTR | 0.53 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.46 | 0.12 | 0.52 | 1.00 | 0.26 | 0.35 | 0.49 | 0.43 | 0.27 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 0.67 |
| EXPO | 0.51 | 0.21 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.16 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| CSGP | 0.54 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| NVDA | 0.68 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.02 | -0.00 | 0.45 | 0.12 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.32 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.84 |
| MSFT | 0.74 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.42 | 0.18 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.32 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.63 |
| DD | 0.61 | 0.26 | 0.46 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.20 | 0.43 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.49 |
| TREX | 0.60 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 0.55 |
| ECL | 0.62 | 0.26 | 0.19 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.41 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 0.29 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 1.00 | 0.45 |
| Portfolio | 0.82 | 0.16 | 0.31 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.49 | 0.28 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.84 | 0.63 | 0.49 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 1.00 |