Asset Allocation
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in LONG TERM RISK, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Aug 22, 2017, corresponding to the inception date of COMM.L
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -3.43% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 16.08% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio LONG TERM RISK | -0.12% | -2.38% | -1.92% | -1.22% | 21.43% | 20.54% | 11.78% | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.11% | -2.64% | -4.65% | -3.18% | 23.45% | 22.97% | 13.18% | 19.05% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 0.09% | -3.34% | -3.56% | -1.44% | 17.51% | 18.37% | 11.88% | 14.11% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.61% | -2.56% | 0.69% | -0.91% | -0.77% | -2.76% | -5.75% | -1.34% |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | -0.72% | -2.55% | 0.11% | 0.38% | 21.72% | 13.41% | 3.75% | 7.73% |
DGRO iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF | 0.16% | -3.33% | 1.76% | 4.21% | 15.91% | 14.42% | 10.17% | 12.88% |
SGLP.L Invesco Physical Gold A | -2.08% | -8.98% | 8.43% | 21.69% | 48.98% | 32.68% | 21.85% | 14.18% |
ISTB iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF | 0.10% | -0.46% | 0.23% | 1.24% | 4.53% | 4.74% | 1.90% | 2.33% |
COMM.L iShares Diversified Commodity Swap UCITS ETF | 1.91% | 8.76% | 24.87% | 32.31% | 32.67% | 13.54% | 13.88% | — |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -1.99% | -2.31% | -23.70% | -44.66% | -19.07% | 33.89% | 3.18% | 66.03% |
RBTX.L iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF | -1.12% | -4.01% | -4.63% | -3.61% | 19.18% | 12.17% | 4.76% | — |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Aug 23, 2017, LONG TERM RISK's average daily return is +0.05%, while the average monthly return is +1.47%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 4.0 years.
Historically, 65% of months were positive and 35% were negative. The best month was Apr 2020 with a return of +12.6%, while the worst month was Apr 2022 at -10.1%. The longest winning streak lasted 7 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 4 months.
On a daily basis, LONG TERM RISK closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +8.3%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -9.9%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.49% | -0.68% | -4.46% | 0.85% | -1.92% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 2.80% | -2.03% | -4.18% | 0.96% | 6.36% | 5.36% | 1.98% | 1.56% | 4.88% | 3.17% | -1.29% | -0.08% | 20.70% |
| 2024 | 0.62% | 6.28% | 3.16% | -3.76% | 4.77% | 3.36% | 0.13% | 0.81% | 3.57% | -0.56% | 5.50% | -1.32% | 24.44% |
| 2023 | 9.88% | -1.88% | 7.30% | 0.31% | 2.69% | 5.22% | 3.19% | -2.63% | -4.06% | -0.60% | 8.68% | 5.39% | 37.61% |
| 2022 | -6.50% | -1.82% | 2.56% | -10.06% | -1.09% | -8.24% | 8.53% | -4.81% | -9.02% | 3.19% | 5.98% | -5.74% | -25.53% |
| 2021 | 0.98% | 2.61% | 3.59% | 4.27% | -1.11% | 2.95% | 2.57% | 3.41% | -4.37% | 7.50% | 0.25% | 0.83% | 25.56% |
Benchmark Metrics
LONG TERM RISK has an annualized alpha of 6.03%, beta of 0.87, and R² of 0.88 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since August 23, 2017.
- This portfolio captured 104.02% of S&P 500 Index gains but only 84.15% of its losses — a favorable profile for investors.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 6.03% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- With beta of 0.87 and R² of 0.88, this portfolio moves broadly in line with S&P 500 Index — much of its variation is explained by market exposure rather than independent behavior.
- Alpha
- 6.03%
- Beta
- 0.87
- R²
- 0.88
- Upside Capture
- 104.02%
- Downside Capture
- 84.15%
Expense Ratio
LONG TERM RISK has an expense ratio of 0.17%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Top 10 holdings
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
LONG TERM RISK ranks 40 for risk / return — below 40% of portfolios on our site. The returns aren't fully compensating for the risk involved. This isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, but factor it into your decision — especially if you're risk-averse.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.28 | 0.88 | +0.40 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 1.91 | 1.37 | +0.55 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.26 | 1.21 | +0.05 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.86 | 1.39 | -0.53 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 2.81 | 6.43 | -3.62 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 59 | 1.04 | 1.62 | 1.23 | 1.93 | 7.00 |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 53 | 0.92 | 1.45 | 1.22 | 1.51 | 7.11 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 10 | -0.07 | -0.01 | 1.00 | -0.09 | -0.19 |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | 62 | 1.22 | 1.74 | 1.25 | 1.78 | 6.68 |
DGRO iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF | 58 | 1.11 | 1.61 | 1.24 | 1.52 | 6.97 |
SGLP.L Invesco Physical Gold A | 84 | 1.86 | 2.34 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 10.96 |
ISTB iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF | 93 | 2.35 | 3.59 | 1.47 | 3.57 | 14.03 |
COMM.L iShares Diversified Commodity Swap UCITS ETF | 88 | 1.94 | 2.52 | 1.35 | 4.96 | 12.27 |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 39 | -0.43 | -0.36 | 0.96 | -1.14 | -2.03 |
RBTX.L iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF | 46 | 0.81 | 1.27 | 1.16 | 1.73 | 6.09 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
LONG TERM RISK provided a 1.09% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 1.09% | 1.07% | 1.19% | 1.27% | 1.31% | 0.84% | 0.93% | 1.20% | 1.40% | 1.13% | 1.29% | 1.33% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.48% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 1.13% | 1.07% | 1.21% | 1.40% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 1.52% | 1.75% | 2.04% | 1.80% | 2.03% | 2.06% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.51% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
VWO Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF | 2.70% | 2.79% | 3.20% | 3.52% | 4.11% | 2.63% | 1.91% | 3.23% | 2.88% | 2.30% | 2.52% | 3.26% |
DGRO iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF | 2.09% | 2.09% | 2.26% | 2.45% | 2.34% | 1.93% | 2.30% | 2.21% | 2.44% | 2.03% | 2.27% | 2.52% |
SGLP.L Invesco Physical Gold A | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
ISTB iShares Core 1-5 Year USD Bond ETF | 4.21% | 4.12% | 3.83% | 2.97% | 2.01% | 1.69% | 2.20% | 2.75% | 2.57% | 2.06% | 1.90% | 1.58% |
COMM.L iShares Diversified Commodity Swap UCITS ETF | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
RBTX.L iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the LONG TERM RISK. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the LONG TERM RISK was 30.50%, occurring on Oct 15, 2022. Recovery took 433 trading sessions.
The current LONG TERM RISK drawdown is 6.20%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -30.5% | Nov 9, 2021 | 341 | Oct 15, 2022 | 433 | Dec 22, 2023 | 774 |
| -26.22% | Feb 20, 2020 | 32 | Mar 22, 2020 | 78 | Jun 8, 2020 | 110 |
| -18.52% | Jan 29, 2018 | 331 | Dec 25, 2018 | 100 | Apr 4, 2019 | 431 |
| -17.45% | Feb 20, 2025 | 48 | Apr 8, 2025 | 59 | Jun 6, 2025 | 107 |
| -9.45% | Jan 29, 2026 | 61 | Mar 30, 2026 | — | — | — |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 12 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.52, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | TLT | ISTB | SGLP.L | BTC-USD | COMM.L | CNYA | RBTX.L | DGRO | SMH | VWO | QQQ | SPY | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | -0.08 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.39 | 0.59 | 0.89 | 0.79 | 0.67 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| TLT | -0.08 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.19 | -0.01 | -0.08 | -0.07 | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.08 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.07 | -0.01 |
| ISTB | 0.10 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| SGLP.L | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.28 | 1.00 | 0.09 | 0.39 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.19 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| BTC-USD | 0.25 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 1.00 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.51 |
| COMM.L | 0.20 | -0.08 | 0.05 | 0.39 | 0.08 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| CNYA | 0.39 | -0.07 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.63 | 0.33 | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| RBTX.L | 0.59 | -0.05 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| DGRO | 0.89 | -0.07 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.30 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.66 |
| SMH | 0.79 | -0.08 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.35 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.59 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| VWO | 0.67 | -0.06 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.63 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| QQQ | 0.92 | -0.03 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 0.81 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.87 | 0.87 |
| SPY | 1.00 | -0.07 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 0.53 | 0.84 | 0.73 | 0.62 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 0.84 |
| Portfolio | 0.91 | -0.01 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.51 | 0.23 | 0.41 | 0.58 | 0.66 | 0.76 | 0.66 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 1.00 |