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Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


S&P 500 Index

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every year.


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The earliest data available for this chart is Jun 4, 2013, corresponding to the inception date of BNDX

Returns By Period

As of Apr 4, 2026, the Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test returned -0.43% Year-To-Date and 10.63% of annualized return in the last 10 years.


1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
0.11%-2.33%-3.84%-1.98%29.73%16.86%10.37%12.29%
Portfolio
Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test
-0.43%-3.21%-0.43%9.25%37.50%18.69%10.31%10.63%
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
0.16%-2.00%-3.13%-1.30%31.84%18.10%10.66%13.75%
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
0.22%-0.55%0.31%0.97%3.65%3.53%0.30%1.70%
BNDX
Vanguard Total International Bond ETF
-0.10%-0.76%-0.08%0.10%2.08%3.79%0.18%1.74%
EMB
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF
0.12%-1.38%-1.09%1.24%11.66%8.40%1.88%3.24%
HYG
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
0.24%0.32%0.13%1.32%9.86%8.10%3.71%5.21%
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF
-0.67%-0.64%2.90%6.03%38.94%15.65%7.59%9.14%
GLD
SPDR Gold Shares
-1.92%-9.31%8.35%20.07%53.51%32.51%21.53%13.97%
SLV
iShares Silver Trust
-3.45%-13.37%2.13%51.17%142.95%43.94%23.23%16.57%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jun 5, 2013, Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test's average daily return is +0.04%, while the average monthly return is +0.76%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 7.6 years.

Historically, 64% of months were positive and 36% were negative. The best month was Apr 2020 with a return of +8.0%, while the worst month was Mar 2020 at -11.3%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 4 months.

On a daily basis, Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 24, 2020 with a return of +5.9%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -7.5%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20263.65%2.57%-6.50%0.17%-0.43%
20253.15%-0.02%-0.97%-0.09%3.12%4.00%1.02%3.02%4.95%2.11%3.02%5.19%32.26%
2024-0.35%2.34%3.55%-1.90%4.64%0.81%2.03%1.72%2.78%-0.35%2.29%-2.68%15.62%
20234.93%-3.62%3.95%1.14%-1.11%3.13%3.08%-1.59%-4.30%-1.01%7.45%3.39%15.75%
2022-3.97%-0.81%0.84%-6.80%-0.59%-6.20%5.16%-4.38%-5.69%3.58%7.10%-1.97%-13.93%
2021-0.48%0.32%0.72%3.48%1.74%0.26%0.80%0.91%-3.53%3.89%-1.66%2.79%9.38%

Benchmark Metrics

Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test has an annualized alpha of 2.22%, beta of 0.57, and R² of 0.77 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since June 05, 2013.

  • This portfolio participated in 64.44% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 63.78% of its upside — more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
  • This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 2.22% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
  • Beta of 0.57 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index — a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.

Alpha
2.22%
Beta
0.57
0.77
Upside Capture
63.78%
Downside Capture
64.44%

Expense Ratio

Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test has an expense ratio of 0.19%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test ranks 79 for risk / return — better than 79% of portfolios on our site. You're getting solid returns for the risk taken. A good sign, especially for investors who want growth without excessive volatility.


Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test Risk / Return Rank: 7979
Overall Rank
Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test Sharpe Ratio Rank: 8787
Sharpe Ratio Rank
Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test Sortino Ratio Rank: 8383
Sortino Ratio Rank
Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test Omega Ratio Rank: 8989
Omega Ratio Rank
Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test Calmar Ratio Rank: 7272
Calmar Ratio Rank
Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test Martin Ratio Rank: 6262
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference

Sharpe ratio

Return per unit of total volatility

1.95

0.88

+1.07

Sortino ratio

Return per unit of downside risk

2.49

1.37

+1.12

Omega ratio

Gain probability vs. loss probability

1.41

1.21

+0.20

Calmar ratio

Return relative to maximum drawdown

2.51

1.39

+1.12

Martin ratio

Return relative to average drawdown

9.09

6.43

+2.66


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

Risk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
520.941.471.221.537.16
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
471.001.421.181.714.64
BNDX
Vanguard Total International Bond ETF
330.821.151.150.893.55
EMB
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF
691.351.911.282.078.24
HYG
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
691.251.881.291.829.56
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF
781.622.231.332.469.28
GLD
SPDR Gold Shares
781.772.191.322.579.28
SLV
iShares Silver Trust
802.002.131.382.708.21

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test Sharpe ratios as of Apr 4, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: 1.95
  • 5-Year: 0.86
  • 10-Year: 0.90
  • All Time: 0.81

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 0.99 to 1.69, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio is in the top 25%. This signifies superior risk-adjusted performance, meaning the portfolio is delivering strong returns for the level of risk taken compared to most others.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test provided a 2.46% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio2.46%2.41%2.53%2.47%2.31%1.98%1.91%2.40%2.68%2.26%2.40%2.47%
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
1.16%1.12%1.27%1.44%1.66%1.21%1.42%1.78%2.04%1.71%1.92%1.98%
BND
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
3.92%3.86%3.67%3.09%2.60%2.12%2.38%2.72%2.81%2.54%2.51%2.57%
BNDX
Vanguard Total International Bond ETF
4.47%4.39%4.18%4.42%1.51%3.74%1.11%3.40%3.01%2.23%1.89%1.63%
EMB
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF
5.15%4.98%5.46%4.74%5.04%3.89%3.88%4.51%5.64%4.54%4.83%4.84%
HYG
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF
5.87%5.71%6.01%5.74%5.30%4.02%4.88%4.99%5.54%5.12%5.27%5.90%
VEU
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF
2.90%3.09%3.24%3.32%3.12%3.08%2.00%3.10%3.27%2.66%2.96%2.95%
GLD
SPDR Gold Shares
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
SLV
iShares Silver Trust
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test was 24.91%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 83 trading sessions.

The current Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test drawdown is 9.00%.


Depth

Start

To Bottom

Bottom

To Recover

End

Total

-24.91%Feb 20, 202023Mar 23, 202083Jul 21, 2020106
-22.15%Nov 15, 2021231Oct 14, 2022335Feb 15, 2024566
-11.68%Jan 29, 2018229Dec 24, 201870Apr 5, 2019299
-11.48%Jan 29, 202642Mar 30, 2026
-11.43%May 19, 2015170Jan 20, 201697Jun 8, 2016267

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 8 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.60, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

BenchmarkBNDXGLDBNDSLVVTIEMBVEUHYGPortfolio
Benchmark1.000.010.01-0.020.150.990.460.800.720.85
BNDX0.011.000.260.720.160.010.420.020.200.16
GLD0.010.261.000.350.780.010.250.170.110.39
BND-0.020.720.351.000.23-0.010.530.040.250.18
SLV0.150.160.780.231.000.160.280.310.190.55
VTI0.990.010.01-0.010.161.000.460.810.730.85
EMB0.460.420.250.530.280.461.000.530.630.61
VEU0.800.020.170.040.310.810.531.000.680.84
HYG0.720.200.110.250.190.730.630.681.000.74
Portfolio0.850.160.390.180.550.850.610.840.741.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Jun 5, 2013