Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | Total Bond Market | 7.41% |
BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond ETF | Global Bonds | 6.60% |
EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | Emerging Markets Bonds | 11.65% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | Gold, Precious Metals | 6.08% |
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | High Yield Bonds | 9.95% |
SLV iShares Silver Trust | Precious Metals | 10.41% |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF | Foreign Large Cap Equities | 7.40% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Blend Equities | 40.50% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every year.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Jun 4, 2013, corresponding to the inception date of BNDX
Returns By Period
As of Apr 4, 2026, the Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test returned -0.43% Year-To-Date and 10.63% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -2.33% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 29.73% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test | -0.43% | -3.21% | -0.43% | 9.25% | 37.50% | 18.69% | 10.31% | 10.63% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.16% | -2.00% | -3.13% | -1.30% | 31.84% | 18.10% | 10.66% | 13.75% |
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 0.22% | -0.55% | 0.31% | 0.97% | 3.65% | 3.53% | 0.30% | 1.70% |
BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond ETF | -0.10% | -0.76% | -0.08% | 0.10% | 2.08% | 3.79% | 0.18% | 1.74% |
EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | 0.12% | -1.38% | -1.09% | 1.24% | 11.66% | 8.40% | 1.88% | 3.24% |
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | 0.24% | 0.32% | 0.13% | 1.32% | 9.86% | 8.10% | 3.71% | 5.21% |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF | -0.67% | -0.64% | 2.90% | 6.03% | 38.94% | 15.65% | 7.59% | 9.14% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | -1.92% | -9.31% | 8.35% | 20.07% | 53.51% | 32.51% | 21.53% | 13.97% |
SLV iShares Silver Trust | -3.45% | -13.37% | 2.13% | 51.17% | 142.95% | 43.94% | 23.23% | 16.57% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jun 5, 2013, Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test's average daily return is +0.04%, while the average monthly return is +0.76%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 7.6 years.
Historically, 64% of months were positive and 36% were negative. The best month was Apr 2020 with a return of +8.0%, while the worst month was Mar 2020 at -11.3%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 4 months.
On a daily basis, Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 24, 2020 with a return of +5.9%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -7.5%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.65% | 2.57% | -6.50% | 0.17% | -0.43% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 3.15% | -0.02% | -0.97% | -0.09% | 3.12% | 4.00% | 1.02% | 3.02% | 4.95% | 2.11% | 3.02% | 5.19% | 32.26% |
| 2024 | -0.35% | 2.34% | 3.55% | -1.90% | 4.64% | 0.81% | 2.03% | 1.72% | 2.78% | -0.35% | 2.29% | -2.68% | 15.62% |
| 2023 | 4.93% | -3.62% | 3.95% | 1.14% | -1.11% | 3.13% | 3.08% | -1.59% | -4.30% | -1.01% | 7.45% | 3.39% | 15.75% |
| 2022 | -3.97% | -0.81% | 0.84% | -6.80% | -0.59% | -6.20% | 5.16% | -4.38% | -5.69% | 3.58% | 7.10% | -1.97% | -13.93% |
| 2021 | -0.48% | 0.32% | 0.72% | 3.48% | 1.74% | 0.26% | 0.80% | 0.91% | -3.53% | 3.89% | -1.66% | 2.79% | 9.38% |
Benchmark Metrics
Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test has an annualized alpha of 2.22%, beta of 0.57, and R² of 0.77 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since June 05, 2013.
- This portfolio participated in 64.44% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 63.78% of its upside — more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 2.22% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- Beta of 0.57 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index — a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.
- Alpha
- 2.22%
- Beta
- 0.57
- R²
- 0.77
- Upside Capture
- 63.78%
- Downside Capture
- 64.44%
Expense Ratio
Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test has an expense ratio of 0.19%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test ranks 79 for risk / return — better than 79% of portfolios on our site. You're getting solid returns for the risk taken. A good sign, especially for investors who want growth without excessive volatility.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.95 | 0.88 | +1.07 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.49 | 1.37 | +1.12 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.41 | 1.21 | +0.20 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.51 | 1.39 | +1.12 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 9.09 | 6.43 | +2.66 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 52 | 0.94 | 1.47 | 1.22 | 1.53 | 7.16 |
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 47 | 1.00 | 1.42 | 1.18 | 1.71 | 4.64 |
BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond ETF | 33 | 0.82 | 1.15 | 1.15 | 0.89 | 3.55 |
EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | 69 | 1.35 | 1.91 | 1.28 | 2.07 | 8.24 |
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | 69 | 1.25 | 1.88 | 1.29 | 1.82 | 9.56 |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF | 78 | 1.62 | 2.23 | 1.33 | 2.46 | 9.28 |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 78 | 1.77 | 2.19 | 1.32 | 2.57 | 9.28 |
SLV iShares Silver Trust | 80 | 2.00 | 2.13 | 1.38 | 2.70 | 8.21 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test provided a 2.46% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.46% | 2.41% | 2.53% | 2.47% | 2.31% | 1.98% | 1.91% | 2.40% | 2.68% | 2.26% | 2.40% | 2.47% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.16% | 1.12% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.66% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% |
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | 3.92% | 3.86% | 3.67% | 3.09% | 2.60% | 2.12% | 2.38% | 2.72% | 2.81% | 2.54% | 2.51% | 2.57% |
BNDX Vanguard Total International Bond ETF | 4.47% | 4.39% | 4.18% | 4.42% | 1.51% | 3.74% | 1.11% | 3.40% | 3.01% | 2.23% | 1.89% | 1.63% |
EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | 5.15% | 4.98% | 5.46% | 4.74% | 5.04% | 3.89% | 3.88% | 4.51% | 5.64% | 4.54% | 4.83% | 4.84% |
HYG iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | 5.87% | 5.71% | 6.01% | 5.74% | 5.30% | 4.02% | 4.88% | 4.99% | 5.54% | 5.12% | 5.27% | 5.90% |
VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF | 2.90% | 3.09% | 3.24% | 3.32% | 3.12% | 3.08% | 2.00% | 3.10% | 3.27% | 2.66% | 2.96% | 2.95% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SLV iShares Silver Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test was 24.91%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 83 trading sessions.
The current Predicting Alpha 5 Million Test drawdown is 9.00%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -24.91% | Feb 20, 2020 | 23 | Mar 23, 2020 | 83 | Jul 21, 2020 | 106 |
| -22.15% | Nov 15, 2021 | 231 | Oct 14, 2022 | 335 | Feb 15, 2024 | 566 |
| -11.68% | Jan 29, 2018 | 229 | Dec 24, 2018 | 70 | Apr 5, 2019 | 299 |
| -11.48% | Jan 29, 2026 | 42 | Mar 30, 2026 | — | — | — |
| -11.43% | May 19, 2015 | 170 | Jan 20, 2016 | 97 | Jun 8, 2016 | 267 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 8 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.60, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | BNDX | GLD | BND | SLV | VTI | EMB | VEU | HYG | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.02 | 0.15 | 0.99 | 0.46 | 0.80 | 0.72 | 0.85 |
| BNDX | 0.01 | 1.00 | 0.26 | 0.72 | 0.16 | 0.01 | 0.42 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| GLD | 0.01 | 0.26 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.78 | 0.01 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.39 |
| BND | -0.02 | 0.72 | 0.35 | 1.00 | 0.23 | -0.01 | 0.53 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| SLV | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.78 | 0.23 | 1.00 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.19 | 0.55 |
| VTI | 0.99 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.16 | 1.00 | 0.46 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.85 |
| EMB | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.25 | 0.53 | 0.28 | 0.46 | 1.00 | 0.53 | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| VEU | 0.80 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.31 | 0.81 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.68 | 0.84 |
| HYG | 0.72 | 0.20 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 1.00 | 0.74 |
| Portfolio | 0.85 | 0.16 | 0.39 | 0.18 | 0.55 | 0.85 | 0.61 | 0.84 | 0.74 | 1.00 |