Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
IAU iShares Gold Trust | Gold, Precious Metals | 10% |
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | Cryptocurrency | 20% |
IDEF iShares Defense Industrials Active ETF | Aerospace & Defense | 5% |
USD=X USD Cash | 20% | |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | Foreign Large Cap Equities | 5% |
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | S&P 500 | 40% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Portfolio 2026, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is May 21, 2025, corresponding to the inception date of IDEF
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.44% | -1.90% | -3.41% | -1.91% | 30.31% | 17.22% | 10.14% | 12.44% |
Portfolio Portfolio 2026 | 0.00% | -1.66% | -3.68% | -8.42% | — | — | — | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 0.44% | -1.75% | -3.12% | -1.31% | 31.67% | 18.81% | 11.72% | 14.33% |
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | 4.08% | 2.38% | -20.40% | -44.56% | -17.17% | — | — | — |
USD=X USD Cash | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | -0.38% | -9.66% | 7.93% | 17.41% | 53.00% | 32.05% | 21.49% | 13.86% |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 0.74% | -0.08% | 4.42% | 8.43% | 43.21% | 16.56% | 8.74% | 9.55% |
IDEF iShares Defense Industrials Active ETF | 1.09% | -3.97% | 11.23% | 5.14% | — | — | — | — |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since May 22, 2025, Portfolio 2026's average daily return is +0.01%, while the average monthly return is +0.35%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 16.5 years.
Historically, 67% of months were positive and 33% were negative. The best month was Sep 2025 with a return of +4.4%, while the worst month was Mar 2026 at -3.9%. The longest winning streak lasted 5 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 2 months.
On a daily basis, Portfolio 2026 closed higher 38% of trading days. The best single day was Feb 6, 2026 with a return of +3.0%, while the worst single day was Feb 5, 2026 at -3.2%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.85% | -2.93% | -3.90% | 1.38% | -3.68% | ||||||||
| 2025 | -0.13% | 3.31% | 2.57% | 0.02% | 4.36% | 0.66% | -3.01% | 0.07% | 7.92% |
Benchmark Metrics
Portfolio 2026 has an annualized alpha of -7.65%, beta of 0.89, and R² of 0.62 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since May 22, 2025.
- This portfolio participated in 110.40% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 55.19% of its upside — more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
- This portfolio had an annualized alpha of -7.65% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering less than market exposure alone would predict.
- With beta of 0.89 and R² of 0.62, this portfolio moves broadly in line with S&P 500 Index — much of its variation is explained by market exposure rather than independent behavior.
- Alpha
- -7.65%
- Beta
- 0.89
- R²
- 0.62
- Upside Capture
- 55.19%
- Downside Capture
- 110.40%
Expense Ratio
Portfolio 2026 has an expense ratio of 0.12%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | — | 1.84 | — |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | — | 2.97 | — |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | — | 1.40 | — |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.28 | 1.82 | -2.10 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.69 | 7.76 | -8.44 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 81 | 1.94 | 3.10 | 1.42 | 2.04 | 8.70 |
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | 5 | -0.38 | -0.27 | 0.97 | -0.41 | -0.85 |
USD=X USD Cash | — | — | — | — | — | — |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 80 | 1.94 | 2.36 | 1.35 | 2.53 | 9.06 |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 89 | 2.67 | 3.79 | 1.51 | 2.70 | 10.59 |
IDEF iShares Defense Industrials Active ETF | — | — | — | — | — | — |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Portfolio 2026 provided a 0.62% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.67% | 0.74% | 0.82% | 0.66% | 0.72% | 0.91% | 0.99% | 0.85% | 0.96% | 0.99% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 1.18% | 1.13% | 1.24% | 1.46% | 1.69% | 1.25% | 1.54% | 1.88% | 2.06% | 1.78% | 2.02% | 2.10% |
IBIT iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
USD=X USD Cash | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VEA Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF | 2.88% | 3.22% | 3.35% | 3.15% | 2.91% | 3.16% | 2.04% | 3.04% | 3.35% | 2.77% | 3.05% | 2.92% |
IDEF iShares Defense Industrials Active ETF | 0.15% | 0.17% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Portfolio 2026. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Portfolio 2026 was 11.69%, occurring on Mar 30, 2026. The portfolio has not yet recovered.
The current Portfolio 2026 drawdown is 8.42%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -11.69% | Oct 7, 2025 | 175 | Mar 30, 2026 | — | — | — |
| -2.71% | Aug 14, 2025 | 8 | Aug 21, 2025 | 21 | Sep 11, 2025 | 29 |
| -2.16% | Jul 25, 2025 | 8 | Aug 1, 2025 | 11 | Aug 12, 2025 | 19 |
| -1.63% | Jun 17, 2025 | 4 | Jun 20, 2025 | 5 | Jun 25, 2025 | 9 |
| -1.33% | Sep 19, 2025 | 7 | Sep 25, 2025 | 4 | Sep 29, 2025 | 11 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 6 assets, with an effective number of assets of 3.92, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | USD=X | IAU | IBIT | IDEF | VEA | VOO | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.48 | 0.63 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| USD=X | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| IAU | 0.12 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.12 | 0.31 |
| IBIT | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.84 |
| IDEF | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| VEA | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| VOO | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.43 | 0.59 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| Portfolio | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.84 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.71 | 1.00 |