Golden Butterfly Portfolio
The Golden Butterfly Portfolio is a variation of the Permanent Portfolio designed to provide a steady stream of returns in any market environment. Its assets are similar to the ones of the permanent portfolio but with the inclusion of small-cap value stocks.
Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | Precious Metals, Gold | 20% |
IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF | Small Cap Value Equities | 20% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 20% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 20% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Growth Equities | 20% |
Performance
Performance Chart
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The earliest data available for this chart is Nov 18, 2004, corresponding to the inception date of GLD
Returns By Period
As of May 11, 2025, the Golden Butterfly Portfolio returned 2.40% Year-To-Date and 6.74% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | -3.77% | 7.44% | -5.60% | 8.37% | 14.12% | 10.46% |
| Golden Butterfly Portfolio | 2.40% | 4.67% | -0.50% | 10.03% | 7.20% | 6.74% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 1.93% | 0.20% | 2.50% | 5.59% | 1.07% | 1.40% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 1.08% | 1.10% | -3.86% | 0.64% | -9.36% | -0.54% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | -3.75% | 7.98% | -5.68% | 9.17% | 15.27% | 11.77% |
IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF | -12.66% | 9.73% | -17.33% | -4.23% | 13.26% | 6.55% |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 26.73% | 4.96% | 23.75% | 40.30% | 14.04% | 10.19% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.49% | 0.18% | -0.53% | -0.32% | 0.59% | 2.40% | |||||||
| 2024 | -1.53% | 1.11% | 3.29% | -2.94% | 2.86% | 0.53% | 4.79% | 1.12% | 2.18% | -0.86% | 3.28% | -3.53% | 10.39% |
| 2023 | 6.60% | -3.04% | 2.00% | 0.02% | -1.58% | 2.54% | 1.94% | -2.21% | -4.74% | -1.36% | 6.25% | 5.91% | 12.16% |
| 2022 | -3.34% | 0.81% | -0.36% | -5.49% | -0.58% | -4.08% | 3.62% | -3.27% | -6.49% | 2.92% | 4.99% | -2.54% | -13.64% |
| 2021 | -0.18% | 0.59% | 0.92% | 2.57% | 2.44% | -0.36% | 0.75% | 0.83% | -2.45% | 2.62% | -0.41% | 1.77% | 9.36% |
| 2020 | 1.26% | -2.03% | -5.20% | 7.15% | 1.84% | 1.82% | 4.73% | 1.38% | -2.56% | -0.44% | 5.61% | 3.78% | 17.96% |
| 2019 | 4.87% | 1.26% | 0.28% | 1.16% | -1.58% | 4.76% | 0.59% | 2.45% | 0.09% | 1.17% | 0.59% | 1.27% | 18.06% |
| 2018 | 1.25% | -2.61% | 0.60% | -0.21% | 1.98% | -0.23% | 0.44% | 1.25% | -1.30% | -3.60% | 1.00% | -1.68% | -3.23% |
| 2017 | 1.39% | 1.99% | -0.32% | 1.01% | 0.12% | 0.48% | 0.89% | 1.05% | 0.93% | 0.38% | 1.55% | 0.94% | 10.90% |
| 2016 | 0.04% | 3.38% | 2.82% | 1.44% | -0.71% | 3.50% | 2.63% | -0.61% | 0.06% | -2.66% | 0.22% | 0.74% | 11.19% |
| 2015 | 2.22% | -0.46% | -0.19% | -0.96% | 0.07% | -1.35% | -0.60% | -1.62% | -1.13% | 3.27% | -0.89% | -1.69% | -3.40% |
| 2014 | 0.64% | 3.24% | -0.16% | 0.08% | 0.57% | 2.44% | -2.03% | 2.78% | -3.25% | 1.97% | 1.13% | 1.37% | 8.93% |
Expense Ratio
Golden Butterfly Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.20%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
With an overall rank of 81, Golden Butterfly Portfolio is among the top 19% of portfolios on our website when it comes to balancing risk and reward. Below is a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.34 | 5.70 | 1.74 | 5.75 | 16.25 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.01 | 0.09 | 1.01 | -0.00 | -0.01 |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.47 | 0.83 | 1.12 | 0.51 | 1.94 |
IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF | -0.20 | -0.04 | 1.00 | -0.12 | -0.35 |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 2.39 | 3.30 | 1.42 | 5.33 | 14.20 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Golden Butterfly Portfolio provided a 2.34% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.34% | 2.25% | 1.85% | 1.42% | 0.89% | 0.97% | 1.56% | 1.63% | 1.31% | 1.29% | 1.34% | 1.24% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.95% | 3.92% | 2.99% | 1.30% | 0.24% | 0.94% | 2.12% | 1.72% | 0.98% | 0.71% | 0.54% | 0.36% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.35% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% | 2.67% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.35% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.67% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% | 1.76% |
IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF | 2.04% | 1.78% | 1.42% | 1.46% | 1.52% | 1.00% | 1.66% | 1.75% | 1.41% | 1.22% | 1.59% | 1.41% |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Golden Butterfly Portfolio was 20.32%, occurring on Nov 20, 2008. Recovery took 205 trading sessions.
The current Golden Butterfly Portfolio drawdown is 1.42%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -20.32% | May 21, 2008 | 129 | Nov 20, 2008 | 205 | Sep 16, 2009 | 334 |
| -19.59% | Nov 10, 2021 | 238 | Oct 20, 2022 | 431 | Jul 11, 2024 | 669 |
| -15.83% | Feb 24, 2020 | 18 | Mar 18, 2020 | 53 | Jun 3, 2020 | 71 |
| -8.35% | May 11, 2006 | 24 | Jun 14, 2006 | 102 | Nov 7, 2006 | 126 |
| -8.28% | Jan 23, 2015 | 249 | Jan 19, 2016 | 48 | Mar 29, 2016 | 297 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 5 assets, with an effective number of assets of 5.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets indicates a moderate level of diversification, where some assets may have a more significant influence on overall performance.
Asset Correlations Table
| ^GSPC | GLD | SHY | TLT | IJS | VTI | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | 1.00 | 0.06 | -0.20 | -0.26 | 0.82 | 0.99 | 0.73 |
| GLD | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.50 |
| SHY | -0.20 | 0.24 | 1.00 | 0.60 | -0.19 | -0.19 | 0.13 |
| TLT | -0.26 | 0.18 | 0.60 | 1.00 | -0.26 | -0.26 | 0.15 |
| IJS | 0.82 | 0.06 | -0.19 | -0.26 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| VTI | 0.99 | 0.07 | -0.19 | -0.26 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Portfolio | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
AI Insight on Diversification
The portfolio is moderately diversified, with a mix of assets that exhibit varying degrees of correlation. The correlation matrix reveals some notable relationships among the individual positions:
- The two equity positions, VTI (Total Stock Market) and IJS (Small Cap Value), are highly correlated at 0.85, indicating that these holdings move quite closely together. This high correlation suggests some concentration risk within the equity portion, as these assets may not provide strong diversification benefits relative to each other.
- The fixed income positions SHY (short-term Treasuries) and TLT (long-term Treasuries) have a moderate positive correlation of 0.6, which is expected given they are both Treasury bonds but with different maturities. This correlation level indicates some diversification benefit but also some overlap in interest rate sensitivity.
- The gold position (GLD) has low correlations with most other assets, ranging from 0.06 to 0.24, which supports its role as a diversifier within the portfolio. Its correlation with the portfolio overall is 0.5, showing it contributes to reducing overall portfolio risk by behaving differently than stocks and bonds.
- The equity positions (VTI and IJS) have the highest correlations with the portfolio at 0.75 and 0.77 respectively, indicating they are the dominant drivers of portfolio returns and risk. This dominance aligns with their likely larger weightings and the general market exposure they provide.
- The fixed income positions have lower correlations with the portfolio (0.13 for SHY and 0.15 for TLT), reflecting their role in dampening portfolio volatility and providing stability during equity market downturns.
Overall, while the portfolio benefits from including gold and bonds to reduce overall correlation and risk, the strong correlation between the two equity components suggests some concentration within the equity allocation. The portfolio is not overly concentrated but could improve diversification by incorporating additional equity segments or asset classes with lower correlations to the existing holdings.