Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
The permanent portfolio is an investment strategy developed by Harry Browne in the 1970s. It is designed to be a diversified, all-weather portfolio that can provide steady returns in any market environment.
The permanent portfolio is based on the idea that the financial markets are driven by four main factors: inflation, deflation, economic growth, and economic decline. Therefore, to achieve consistent returns in any market environment, Browne believed that it was necessary to diversify across asset classes that would perform well under each of these conditions.
The permanent portfolio consists of four main asset classes: stocks, bonds, gold, and cash. These asset classes are typically invested in through a combination of low-cost index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The portfolio is intended to provide a combination of growth and income while minimizing risk through diversification. It is typically rebalanced annually to maintain the desired asset allocation.
One of the key features of the permanent portfolio is that it is designed to be a long-term investment strategy. Browne believed that investors should hold their portfolio long-term rather than trying to time the market or constantly make changes to their investments. The goal of the permanent portfolio is to provide a consistent stream of returns over time rather than trying to achieve short-term gains.
Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | Precious Metals, Gold | 25% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 25% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 25% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Growth Equities | 25% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
The earliest data available for this chart is Nov 18, 2004, corresponding to the inception date of GLD
Returns By Period
As of May 7, 2025, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio returned 6.99% Year-To-Date and 6.22% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | -4.67% | 10.50% | -3.04% | 8.23% | 14.30% | 10.26% |
| Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | 6.99% | 4.30% | 5.10% | 14.95% | 5.38% | 6.22% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 30.29% | 12.78% | 24.50% | 46.60% | 14.41% | 10.75% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 1.64% | -5.38% | -3.59% | 1.11% | -9.64% | -0.78% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | -4.79% | 10.67% | -2.97% | 8.75% | 15.47% | 11.57% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 2.05% | 0.20% | 2.60% | 5.71% | 1.08% | 1.41% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.68% | 1.57% | 0.83% | 1.04% | 0.68% | 6.99% | |||||||
| 2024 | -0.56% | 0.81% | 3.27% | -2.04% | 2.46% | 1.29% | 3.02% | 1.81% | 2.52% | -0.64% | 1.41% | -2.62% | 11.03% |
| 2023 | 5.27% | -3.39% | 4.28% | 0.63% | -1.08% | 1.11% | 0.93% | -1.48% | -4.35% | -0.12% | 5.59% | 4.09% | 11.45% |
| 2022 | -3.08% | 0.45% | -0.57% | -5.27% | -1.29% | -2.84% | 2.39% | -3.03% | -5.46% | 0.05% | 5.33% | -1.44% | -14.26% |
| 2021 | -1.79% | -2.16% | -0.55% | 2.80% | 2.09% | -0.27% | 2.04% | 0.60% | -2.69% | 2.56% | 0.13% | 1.21% | 3.83% |
| 2020 | 3.16% | -0.18% | -1.11% | 5.44% | 1.65% | 1.36% | 5.27% | 0.47% | -1.88% | -1.47% | 2.01% | 2.63% | 18.43% |
| 2019 | 3.02% | 0.48% | 1.46% | 0.37% | 0.60% | 4.07% | 0.40% | 4.39% | -1.18% | 0.96% | 0.05% | 0.86% | 16.46% |
| 2018 | 1.23% | -2.26% | 0.41% | -0.70% | 0.98% | -0.52% | -0.11% | 0.77% | -0.84% | -2.01% | 1.10% | 0.77% | -1.24% |
| 2017 | 2.04% | 2.14% | -0.24% | 1.14% | 0.71% | -0.12% | 0.93% | 1.99% | -0.89% | 0.33% | 0.99% | 1.27% | 10.74% |
| 2016 | 1.50% | 3.68% | 1.34% | 1.27% | -1.00% | 4.17% | 2.01% | -1.07% | -0.13% | -2.39% | -3.05% | 0.01% | 6.23% |
| 2015 | 4.10% | -1.89% | -0.49% | -0.74% | -0.10% | -1.78% | -0.08% | -0.89% | -0.53% | 2.44% | -1.78% | -0.77% | -2.65% |
| 2014 | 1.68% | 2.91% | -0.53% | 0.69% | 0.56% | 2.09% | -1.27% | 2.37% | -2.59% | 0.69% | 1.30% | 1.06% | 9.20% |
Expense Ratio
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.18%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
With an overall rank of 95, Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is among the top 5% of portfolios on our website when it comes to balancing risk and reward. Below is a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 2.78 | 3.68 | 1.47 | 5.91 | 15.84 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.18 | 0.34 | 1.04 | 0.06 | 0.33 |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.56 | 0.92 | 1.14 | 0.58 | 2.25 |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.57 | 6.13 | 1.80 | 6.06 | 17.27 |
Dividends
Dividend yield
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio provided a 2.41% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.41% | 2.37% | 1.95% | 1.41% | 0.74% | 0.97% | 1.54% | 1.60% | 1.28% | 1.31% | 1.28% | 1.20% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.32% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% | 2.67% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.36% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.67% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% | 1.76% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.95% | 3.92% | 2.99% | 1.30% | 0.24% | 0.94% | 2.12% | 1.72% | 0.98% | 0.71% | 0.54% | 0.36% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio was 19.44%, occurring on Oct 20, 2022. Recovery took 393 trading sessions.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19.44% | Nov 10, 2021 | 238 | Oct 20, 2022 | 393 | May 15, 2024 | 631 |
| -15.11% | Mar 18, 2008 | 168 | Nov 12, 2008 | 207 | Sep 10, 2009 | 375 |
| -11.14% | Mar 9, 2020 | 8 | Mar 18, 2020 | 20 | Apr 16, 2020 | 28 |
| -8.1% | Oct 5, 2012 | 180 | Jun 26, 2013 | 180 | Mar 14, 2014 | 360 |
| -7.38% | May 11, 2006 | 24 | Jun 14, 2006 | 98 | Nov 1, 2006 | 122 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The current Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio volatility is 4.42%, representing the average percentage change in the investments's value, either up or down over the past month. The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 4 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| ^GSPC | GLD | SHY | TLT | VTI | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | 1.00 | 0.06 | -0.19 | -0.26 | 0.99 | 0.44 |
| GLD | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.73 |
| SHY | -0.19 | 0.24 | 1.00 | 0.60 | -0.19 | 0.35 |
| TLT | -0.26 | 0.18 | 0.60 | 1.00 | -0.26 | 0.45 |
| VTI | 0.99 | 0.07 | -0.19 | -0.26 | 1.00 | 0.44 |
| Portfolio | 0.44 | 0.73 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 1.00 |
AI Insight on Diversification
The portfolio is moderately diversified, benefiting from a mix of asset classes with generally low to moderate correlations among individual positions. The correlation matrix shows that the equity component (VTI) has low positive correlations with gold (GLD) at 0.07 and negative correlations with short-term (SHY, -0.19) and long-term bonds (TLT, -0.26), which supports diversification by reducing overall portfolio volatility. Gold (GLD) and the bond positions (SHY and TLT) exhibit modest positive correlations, with GLD correlating 0.24 with SHY and 0.18 with TLT, indicating some shared sensitivity to macroeconomic factors but not enough to significantly impair diversification.
The bond components SHY and TLT have a relatively high correlation of 0.6, which is expected given their fixed income nature, but this does introduce some concentration risk within the bond allocation. Despite this, the bonds collectively provide a stabilizing effect against equity risk.
Looking at the portfolio’s correlation with individual positions, gold (GLD) shows the highest correlation at 0.73, suggesting it has a strong influence on the portfolio’s overall behavior. Equities (VTI) and bonds (SHY and TLT) have moderate correlations with the portfolio (0.44, 0.35, and 0.45 respectively), indicating a balanced contribution without any single asset dominating the portfolio’s risk-return profile.
Overall, the portfolio avoids heavy concentration in any one asset class, leveraging low or negative correlations between equities, gold, and bonds to achieve diversification. The moderate correlation between bonds is a minor concentration factor but does not substantially detract from the portfolio’s broad diversification across different economic environments.