Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio
The permanent portfolio is an investment strategy developed by Harry Browne in the 1970s. It is designed to be a diversified, all-weather portfolio that can provide steady returns in any market environment.
The permanent portfolio is based on the idea that the financial markets are driven by four main factors: inflation, deflation, economic growth, and economic decline. Therefore, to achieve consistent returns in any market environment, Browne believed that it was necessary to diversify across asset classes that would perform well under each of these conditions.
The permanent portfolio consists of four main asset classes: stocks, bonds, gold, and cash. These asset classes are typically invested in through a combination of low-cost index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The portfolio is intended to provide a combination of growth and income while minimizing risk through diversification. It is typically rebalanced annually to maintain the desired asset allocation.
One of the key features of the permanent portfolio is that it is designed to be a long-term investment strategy. Browne believed that investors should hold their portfolio long-term rather than trying to time the market or constantly make changes to their investments. The goal of the permanent portfolio is to provide a consistent stream of returns over time rather than trying to achieve short-term gains.
Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | Precious Metals, Gold | 25% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 25% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 25% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Growth Equities | 25% |
Performance
Performance Chart
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The earliest data available for this chart is Nov 18, 2004, corresponding to the inception date of GLD
Returns By Period
As of May 28, 2025, the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio returned 6.95% Year-To-Date and 6.19% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | 0.68% | 7.17% | -1.66% | 11.63% | 14.34% | 10.88% |
| Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio | 6.95% | 1.01% | 4.98% | 13.80% | 5.13% | 6.19% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 25.76% | -0.08% | 25.33% | 41.02% | 13.49% | 10.31% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.45% | -3.20% | -5.19% | -2.25% | -9.57% | -1.00% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.73% | 7.49% | -2.07% | 12.58% | 15.39% | 12.19% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 1.97% | -0.07% | 2.41% | 5.51% | 1.06% | 1.39% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.68% | 1.57% | 0.83% | 1.04% | 0.65% | 6.95% | |||||||
| 2024 | -0.56% | 0.81% | 3.27% | -2.04% | 2.46% | 1.29% | 3.02% | 1.81% | 2.52% | -0.64% | 1.41% | -2.62% | 11.03% |
| 2023 | 5.27% | -3.39% | 4.28% | 0.63% | -1.08% | 1.11% | 0.93% | -1.48% | -4.35% | -0.12% | 5.59% | 4.09% | 11.45% |
| 2022 | -3.08% | 0.45% | -0.57% | -5.27% | -1.29% | -2.84% | 2.39% | -3.03% | -5.46% | 0.05% | 5.33% | -1.44% | -14.26% |
| 2021 | -1.79% | -2.16% | -0.55% | 2.80% | 2.09% | -0.27% | 2.04% | 0.60% | -2.69% | 2.56% | 0.13% | 1.21% | 3.83% |
| 2020 | 3.16% | -0.18% | -1.11% | 5.44% | 1.65% | 1.36% | 5.27% | 0.47% | -1.88% | -1.47% | 2.01% | 2.63% | 18.43% |
| 2019 | 3.02% | 0.48% | 1.46% | 0.37% | 0.60% | 4.07% | 0.40% | 4.39% | -1.18% | 0.96% | 0.05% | 0.86% | 16.46% |
| 2018 | 1.23% | -2.26% | 0.41% | -0.70% | 0.98% | -0.52% | -0.11% | 0.77% | -0.84% | -2.01% | 1.10% | 0.77% | -1.24% |
| 2017 | 2.04% | 2.14% | -0.24% | 1.14% | 0.71% | -0.12% | 0.93% | 1.99% | -0.89% | 0.33% | 0.99% | 1.27% | 10.74% |
| 2016 | 1.50% | 3.68% | 1.34% | 1.27% | -1.00% | 4.17% | 2.01% | -1.07% | -0.13% | -2.39% | -3.05% | 0.01% | 6.23% |
| 2015 | 4.10% | -1.89% | -0.49% | -0.74% | -0.10% | -1.78% | -0.08% | -0.89% | -0.53% | 2.44% | -1.78% | -0.77% | -2.65% |
| 2014 | 1.68% | 2.91% | -0.53% | 0.69% | 0.56% | 2.09% | -1.27% | 2.37% | -2.59% | 0.69% | 1.30% | 1.06% | 9.20% |
Expense Ratio
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.18%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
With an overall rank of 92, Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio is among the top 8% of portfolios on our website when it comes to balancing risk and reward. Below is a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 2.31 | 2.87 | 1.36 | 4.72 | 12.96 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.16 | -0.15 | 0.98 | -0.06 | -0.31 |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.62 | 1.00 | 1.15 | 0.64 | 2.41 |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.34 | 5.57 | 1.73 | 5.68 | 15.30 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio provided a 2.41% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.41% | 2.37% | 1.95% | 1.41% | 0.74% | 0.97% | 1.54% | 1.60% | 1.28% | 1.31% | 1.28% | 1.20% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.42% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% | 2.67% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.29% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.66% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% | 1.76% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.95% | 3.92% | 2.99% | 1.30% | 0.24% | 0.94% | 2.12% | 1.72% | 0.98% | 0.71% | 0.54% | 0.36% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio was 19.44%, occurring on Oct 20, 2022. Recovery took 393 trading sessions.
The current Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio drawdown is 0.03%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19.44% | Nov 10, 2021 | 238 | Oct 20, 2022 | 393 | May 15, 2024 | 631 |
| -15.11% | Mar 18, 2008 | 168 | Nov 12, 2008 | 207 | Sep 10, 2009 | 375 |
| -11.14% | Mar 9, 2020 | 8 | Mar 18, 2020 | 20 | Apr 16, 2020 | 28 |
| -8.1% | Oct 5, 2012 | 180 | Jun 26, 2013 | 180 | Mar 14, 2014 | 360 |
| -7.38% | May 11, 2006 | 24 | Jun 14, 2006 | 98 | Nov 1, 2006 | 122 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 4 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| ^GSPC | GLD | SHY | TLT | VTI | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | 1.00 | 0.06 | -0.19 | -0.26 | 0.99 | 0.43 |
| GLD | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.73 |
| SHY | -0.19 | 0.24 | 1.00 | 0.60 | -0.19 | 0.35 |
| TLT | -0.26 | 0.18 | 0.60 | 1.00 | -0.26 | 0.45 |
| VTI | 0.99 | 0.07 | -0.19 | -0.26 | 1.00 | 0.44 |
| Portfolio | 0.43 | 0.73 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 1.00 |
AI Insight on Diversification
The portfolio is moderately diversified, with a mix of assets showing generally low to moderate correlations that support risk reduction through diversification. Examining the correlation matrix, no pair of individual positions exhibits a very high correlation that would significantly undermine diversification. The highest correlation among individual assets is 0.60 between SHY (short-term Treasury bonds) and TLT (long-term Treasury bonds), which is expected given both are fixed income instruments but with different durations. This moderate correlation suggests some overlap but also distinct risk-return profiles within the bond allocation.
Other asset pairs show low correlations: VTI (U.S. equities) has near-zero correlation with GLD (gold) at 0.07, and negative correlations with SHY (-0.19) and TLT (-0.26), indicating that equities and bonds/gold behave differently, which enhances diversification. Gold (GLD) has a moderate positive correlation with the portfolio at 0.73, the highest among individual assets, implying that gold is a significant driver of portfolio returns and risk. However, this does not indicate dominance but rather that gold plays a key role in the portfolio's behavior.
VTI, SHY, and TLT have correlations with the portfolio ranging from 0.35 to 0.45, showing that each contributes meaningfully but none overwhelmingly dominates. The portfolio’s overall correlation with individual positions reflects a balanced exposure rather than concentration in any single asset class.
In summary, the portfolio benefits from a thoughtful combination of assets with low to moderate inter-correlations, supporting effective diversification. The presence of both equities, gold, and varying maturities of bonds provides a buffer against market volatility, making it a well-diversified portfolio rather than a concentrated one.