Golden Butterfly Portfolio
The Golden Butterfly Portfolio is a variation of the Permanent Portfolio designed to provide a steady stream of returns in any market environment. Its assets are similar to the ones of the permanent portfolio but with the inclusion of small-cap value stocks.
Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | Precious Metals, Gold | 20% |
IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF | Small Cap Value Equities | 20% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 20% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 20% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Growth Equities | 20% |
Performance
Performance Chart
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The earliest data available for this chart is Nov 18, 2004, corresponding to the inception date of GLD
Returns By Period
As of May 18, 2025, the Golden Butterfly Portfolio returned 3.34% Year-To-Date and 6.78% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | 1.30% | 12.79% | 1.49% | 12.35% | 15.12% | 10.89% |
| Golden Butterfly Portfolio | 3.34% | 3.76% | 2.95% | 9.53% | 7.23% | 6.78% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 1.82% | -0.11% | 2.45% | 5.30% | 1.05% | 1.38% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.21% | -1.04% | -2.13% | -1.62% | -9.55% | -0.61% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.31% | 13.07% | 1.46% | 13.04% | 16.29% | 12.19% |
IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF | -8.44% | 12.57% | -10.83% | -0.94% | 14.13% | 6.87% |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 21.52% | -3.88% | 24.37% | 31.56% | 12.62% | 9.78% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of Golden Butterfly Portfolio, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.49% | 0.18% | -0.53% | -0.32% | 1.52% | 3.34% | |||||||
| 2024 | -1.53% | 1.11% | 3.29% | -2.94% | 2.86% | 0.53% | 4.79% | 1.12% | 2.18% | -0.86% | 3.28% | -3.53% | 10.39% |
| 2023 | 6.60% | -3.04% | 2.00% | 0.02% | -1.58% | 2.54% | 1.94% | -2.21% | -4.74% | -1.36% | 6.25% | 5.91% | 12.16% |
| 2022 | -3.34% | 0.81% | -0.36% | -5.49% | -0.58% | -4.08% | 3.62% | -3.27% | -6.49% | 2.92% | 4.99% | -2.54% | -13.64% |
| 2021 | -0.18% | 0.59% | 0.92% | 2.57% | 2.44% | -0.36% | 0.75% | 0.83% | -2.45% | 2.62% | -0.41% | 1.77% | 9.36% |
| 2020 | 1.26% | -2.03% | -5.20% | 7.15% | 1.84% | 1.82% | 4.73% | 1.38% | -2.56% | -0.44% | 5.61% | 3.78% | 17.96% |
| 2019 | 4.87% | 1.26% | 0.28% | 1.16% | -1.58% | 4.76% | 0.59% | 2.45% | 0.09% | 1.17% | 0.59% | 1.27% | 18.06% |
| 2018 | 1.25% | -2.61% | 0.60% | -0.21% | 1.98% | -0.23% | 0.44% | 1.25% | -1.30% | -3.60% | 1.00% | -1.68% | -3.23% |
| 2017 | 1.39% | 1.99% | -0.32% | 1.01% | 0.12% | 0.48% | 0.89% | 1.05% | 0.93% | 0.38% | 1.55% | 0.94% | 10.90% |
| 2016 | 0.04% | 3.38% | 2.82% | 1.44% | -0.71% | 3.50% | 2.63% | -0.61% | 0.06% | -2.66% | 0.22% | 0.74% | 11.19% |
| 2015 | 2.22% | -0.46% | -0.19% | -0.96% | 0.07% | -1.35% | -0.60% | -1.62% | -1.13% | 3.27% | -0.89% | -1.69% | -3.40% |
| 2014 | 0.64% | 3.24% | -0.16% | 0.08% | 0.57% | 2.44% | -2.03% | 2.78% | -3.25% | 1.97% | 1.13% | 1.37% | 8.93% |
Expense Ratio
Golden Butterfly Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.20%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
The current rank of Golden Butterfly Portfolio is 72, indicating average performance compared to other portfolios on our website. Here’s a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.16 | 5.38 | 1.69 | 5.52 | 15.13 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.16 | -0.00 | 1.00 | -0.02 | -0.13 |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.66 | 1.12 | 1.17 | 0.74 | 2.80 |
IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF | -0.04 | 0.11 | 1.01 | -0.04 | -0.11 |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 1.90 | 2.66 | 1.34 | 4.30 | 11.04 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Golden Butterfly Portfolio provided a 2.31% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.31% | 2.25% | 1.85% | 1.42% | 0.89% | 0.97% | 1.56% | 1.63% | 1.31% | 1.29% | 1.34% | 1.24% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.96% | 3.92% | 2.99% | 1.30% | 0.24% | 0.94% | 2.12% | 1.72% | 0.98% | 0.71% | 0.54% | 0.36% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.39% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% | 2.67% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.28% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.67% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% | 1.76% |
IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF | 1.95% | 1.78% | 1.42% | 1.47% | 1.52% | 1.00% | 1.66% | 1.75% | 1.41% | 1.22% | 1.59% | 1.41% |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Golden Butterfly Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Golden Butterfly Portfolio was 20.32%, occurring on Nov 20, 2008. Recovery took 205 trading sessions.
The current Golden Butterfly Portfolio drawdown is 0.51%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -20.32% | May 21, 2008 | 129 | Nov 20, 2008 | 205 | Sep 16, 2009 | 334 |
| -19.59% | Nov 10, 2021 | 238 | Oct 20, 2022 | 431 | Jul 11, 2024 | 669 |
| -15.83% | Feb 24, 2020 | 18 | Mar 18, 2020 | 53 | Jun 3, 2020 | 71 |
| -8.35% | May 11, 2006 | 24 | Jun 14, 2006 | 102 | Nov 7, 2006 | 126 |
| -8.28% | Jan 23, 2015 | 249 | Jan 19, 2016 | 48 | Mar 29, 2016 | 297 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 5 assets, with an effective number of assets of 5.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets indicates a moderate level of diversification, where some assets may have a more significant influence on overall performance.
Asset Correlations Table
| ^GSPC | GLD | SHY | TLT | IJS | VTI | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | 1.00 | 0.06 | -0.20 | -0.26 | 0.82 | 0.99 | 0.73 |
| GLD | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.50 |
| SHY | -0.20 | 0.24 | 1.00 | 0.60 | -0.19 | -0.19 | 0.13 |
| TLT | -0.26 | 0.18 | 0.60 | 1.00 | -0.26 | -0.26 | 0.15 |
| IJS | 0.82 | 0.06 | -0.19 | -0.26 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| VTI | 0.99 | 0.07 | -0.19 | -0.26 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Portfolio | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.77 | 0.75 | 1.00 |
AI Insight on Diversification
The portfolio is moderately diversified, with a mix of assets that exhibit varying degrees of correlation. The correlation matrix reveals that the two equity positions, VTI (Total Stock Market ETF) and IJS (Small-Cap Value ETF), are highly correlated at 0.85, indicating they tend to move closely together. This high correlation between these equity components slightly reduces diversification within the equity portion of the portfolio.
On the other hand, the portfolio benefits from low correlations between asset classes, which enhances diversification. For example, GLD (Gold) has low correlations with VTI (0.07) and IJS (0.06), and SHY (Short-Term Treasuries) and TLT (Long-Term Treasuries) show modest correlations with equities, including some negative correlations (e.g., SHY with VTI and IJS at -0.19, and TLT with VTI and IJS at -0.26). These low or negative correlations between stocks, bonds, and gold help reduce overall portfolio volatility and provide a buffer during market downturns.
The portfolio’s correlation with individual positions ranges from moderate to high, with the strongest correlations seen with the equity positions: 0.75 with VTI and 0.77 with IJS. This suggests that equities have a dominant influence on the portfolio’s overall behavior. GLD also shows a relatively strong correlation with the portfolio at 0.5, indicating a meaningful contribution, while SHY and TLT have lower correlations (0.13 and 0.15 respectively), reflecting their role as diversifiers.
In summary, while the portfolio is well diversified across asset classes—gold, short- and long-term bonds, and equities—the high correlation between the two equity ETFs indicates some concentration risk within the equity sleeve. The portfolio is not overly concentrated in any single position but leans more heavily on equities, which dominate its correlation profile. The inclusion of gold and bonds with low or negative correlations to equities supports effective diversification and risk mitigation.