Asset Allocation
Find the right asset allocation for Path Forward 2025
Add portfolio to the optimizer to find optimal allocations for your target — whether that's maximizing returns, minimizing drawdowns, or balancing risk across holdings.
Open Portfolio OptimizerPerformance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Path Forward 2025, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is never rebalanced.
Loading charts...
Returns By Period
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.41% | 4.48% | 10.79% | 10.60% | 27.02% | 21.07% | 12.39% | 13.65% |
Portfolio Path Forward 2025 | 0.12% | 2.62% | 8.76% | 8.87% | 20.24% | 14.70% | 7.48% | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.08% | 0.09% | 0.37% | 0.68% | 3.51% | 4.41% | 1.63% | 1.96% |
SWPPX Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund | -0.77% | 4.12% | 10.83% | 10.73% | 27.97% | 22.42% | 13.88% | 15.55% |
VASGX Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund | -0.68% | 3.18% | 10.11% | 10.76% | 24.24% | 17.63% | 8.85% | 10.71% |
VBTLX Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares | -0.21% | 0.13% | 0.21% | 0.34% | 4.47% | 3.97% | 0.10% | 1.56% |
VGSLX Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares | -0.16% | -1.43% | 7.80% | 6.96% | 9.66% | 9.13% | 2.17% | 5.18% |
VMFXX Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund | 0.00% | 0.30% | 1.50% | 1.82% | 3.95% | 3.35% | 2.39% | — |
VSIAX Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares | -0.37% | 1.33% | 11.64% | 11.86% | 26.38% | 16.45% | 7.96% | 10.52% |
VTRIX Vanguard International Value Fund | -0.80% | 4.45% | 14.00% | 16.39% | 31.22% | 16.50% | 7.68% | 9.39% |
VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares | -0.75% | 4.07% | 11.13% | 10.86% | 28.10% | 22.03% | 12.68% | 15.03% |
VWINX Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Investor Shares | -0.31% | 0.62% | 3.24% | 3.37% | 10.63% | 8.75% | 3.99% | 5.77% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since May 26, 2021, Path Forward 2025's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.65%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 8.9 years.
Historically, 63% of months were positive and 37% were negative. The best month was Apr 2026 with a return of +6.7%, while the worst month was Sep 2022 at -6.7%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.
On a daily basis, Path Forward 2025 closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +5.7%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -3.8%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.99% | 1.18% | -4.18% | 6.71% | 3.10% | -0.02% | 8.76% | ||||||
| 2025 | 2.40% | -0.69% | -3.23% | -0.19% | 3.86% | 3.33% | 1.11% | 2.41% | 2.13% | 1.09% | 0.55% | 0.27% | 13.62% |
| 2024 | -0.53% | 2.90% | 2.37% | -3.33% | 3.23% | 1.06% | 2.52% | 1.59% | 1.73% | -1.32% | 4.22% | -2.97% | 11.73% |
| 2023 | 5.50% | -2.11% | 1.08% | 0.60% | -0.73% | 4.31% | 2.65% | -1.84% | -3.25% | -2.22% | 6.58% | 4.77% | 15.73% |
| 2022 | -4.01% | -1.56% | 1.23% | -5.65% | 0.01% | -5.70% | 5.45% | -2.74% | -6.70% | 4.41% | 4.62% | -3.35% | -14.01% |
| 2021 | 0.68% | 1.12% | 0.68% | 1.53% | -2.87% | 3.69% | -1.72% | 2.70% | 5.79% |
Benchmark Metrics
Path Forward 2025 has an annualized alpha of -0.40%, beta of 0.64, and R2 of 0.94 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since May 26, 2021.
- This portfolio participated in 73.76% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 61.52% of its upside - more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
- Beta of 0.64 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index - a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.
- Alpha
- -0.40%
- Beta
- 0.64
- R²
- 0.94
- Upside Capture
- 61.52%
- Downside Capture
- 73.76%
Expense Ratio
Path Forward 2025 has an expense ratio of 0.09%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Top 10 holdings
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Path Forward 2025 ranks 49 for risk / return — on par with similar Portfolios. You're getting a typical balance of risk and reward. Not a standout, but not a red flag either — a reasonable choice if other factors align with your goals.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for Path Forward 2025 and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 2.29 | 2.28 | +0.01 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 3.27 | 3.12 | +0.14 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.42 | 1.41 | +0.01 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 3.14 | 2.98 | +0.16 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 14.06 | 13.78 | +0.28 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares | 61 | 1.97 | 3.14 | 1.37 | 2.74 | 9.60 |
SWPPX Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund | 65 | 2.36 | 3.22 | 1.43 | 3.16 | 14.75 |
VASGX Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund | 69 | 2.38 | 3.33 | 1.44 | 3.02 | 13.35 |
VBTLX Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares | 21 | 1.30 | 1.96 | 1.23 | 1.78 | 5.33 |
VGSLX Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares | 11 | 0.76 | 1.11 | 1.14 | 1.20 | 3.78 |
VMFXX Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund | — | 3.67 | — | — | — | — |
VSIAX Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares | 42 | 1.71 | 2.52 | 1.30 | 2.92 | 10.34 |
VTRIX Vanguard International Value Fund | 56 | 2.31 | 3.17 | 1.42 | 2.81 | 10.45 |
VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares | 64 | 2.31 | 3.17 | 1.42 | 3.17 | 14.61 |
VWINX Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Investor Shares | 51 | 2.16 | 3.12 | 1.40 | 2.65 | 9.98 |
Loading charts...
Dividends
Dividend yield
Path Forward 2025 provided a 3.29% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 3.29% | 3.56% | 2.78% | 2.78% | 1.91% | 1.78% | 1.73% | 1.84% | 2.56% | 1.68% | 1.93% | 2.25% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
BSV Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares | 3.99% | 3.83% | 3.38% | 2.46% | 1.50% | 1.45% | 1.79% | 2.29% | 1.99% | 1.65% | 1.48% | 1.40% |
SWPPX Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund | 1.00% | 1.11% | 1.23% | 1.43% | 1.67% | 1.27% | 1.81% | 1.95% | 2.67% | 1.79% | 2.55% | 3.17% |
VASGX Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund | 3.72% | 4.09% | 6.15% | 3.00% | 2.10% | 3.54% | 3.54% | 2.34% | 4.36% | 2.13% | 2.23% | 4.54% |
VBTLX Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares | 3.99% | 3.87% | 3.69% | 3.10% | 2.59% | 1.96% | 2.39% | 2.74% | 2.57% | 2.56% | 2.53% | 2.82% |
VGSLX Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares | 3.69% | 3.92% | 3.85% | 3.91% | 3.91% | 2.56% | 3.92% | 3.39% | 4.73% | 4.23% | 4.82% | 3.92% |
VMFXX Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund | 3.87% | 4.14% | 1.63% | 4.53% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VSIAX Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares | 1.76% | 1.95% | 1.98% | 2.10% | 2.03% | 1.75% | 1.68% | 2.06% | 2.35% | 1.79% | 1.77% | 1.99% |
VTRIX Vanguard International Value Fund | 15.87% | 18.10% | 8.53% | 2.78% | 2.75% | 4.35% | 1.58% | 2.96% | 6.24% | 1.86% | 2.29% | 2.13% |
VTSAX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares | 1.01% | 1.11% | 1.26% | 1.42% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 1.41% | 1.76% | 2.03% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% |
VWINX Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Investor Shares | 7.71% | 7.86% | 6.61% | 4.73% | 7.67% | 6.03% | 4.30% | 3.94% | 7.56% | 3.20% | 4.00% | 5.60% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
Loading charts...
Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Path Forward 2025. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Path Forward 2025 was 19.42%, occurring on Oct 14, 2022. Recovery took 332 trading sessions.
The current Path Forward 2025 drawdown is 0.45%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bear market2022 | -19.42%Oct 2022 | 11mo 9d | 1y 4mo | 2y 3moNov 2021 - Feb 2024 |
2025 selloff2025 | -12.45%Apr 2025 | 1mo 18d | 2mo 3d | 3mo 21dFeb 2025 - Jun 2025 |
2026 pullback2026 | -6.46%Mar 2026 | 1mo 2d | 15d | 1mo 17dFeb 2026 - Apr 2026 |
2024 pullback2024 | -5.08%Aug 2024 | 19d | 18d | 1mo 7dJul 2024 - Aug 2024 |
2025 pullback2025 | -4.20%Jan 2025 | 1mo 6d | 1mo 9d | 2mo 15dDec 2024 - Feb 2025 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
Loading charts...
Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 12 assets, with an effective number of assets of 9.01, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is well-distributed across most of your holdings, with only mild concentration in a few names. True diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.15 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.12 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.12, placing it in the bottom quartile across portfolios — positions are highly correlated. Consider adding assets from different classes or sectors to reduce risk.
Path Forward 2025 correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.94 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.94 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.95 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since May 26, 2021 | 0.95 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. SWPPX has the highest benchmark correlation at 1.00, while VMFXX has the lowest at 0.04.
Asset Correlations Table
| VMFXX | BSV | VBTLX | VGSLX | VTRIX | VWINX | VXUS | VSIAX | VXF | SWPPX | VTSAX | VASGX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMFXX | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.08 | -0.01 | 0.06 | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| BSV | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 0.53 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| VBTLX | 0.18 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.16 | 0.60 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| VGSLX | 0.08 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| VTRIX | -0.01 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.65 | 0.97 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.88 |
| VWINX | 0.06 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 1.00 | 0.65 | 0.71 | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| VXUS | -0.02 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.57 | 0.97 | 0.65 | 1.00 | 0.74 | 0.76 | 0.77 | 0.78 | 0.90 |
| VSIAX | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| VXF | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.65 | 0.76 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.91 | 0.89 |
| SWPPX | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.60 | 0.74 | 0.66 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.95 |
| VTSAX | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.63 | 0.76 | 0.67 | 0.78 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.96 |
| VASGX | 0.03 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.64 | 0.88 | 0.73 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 0.96 | 1.00 |
Find what Path Forward 2025 is missing
See which holdings overlap, where Path Forward 2025 is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
Analyze Diversification