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Path Forward 2025
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


S&P 500 Index

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Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Path Forward 2025, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is never rebalanced.


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Returns By Period


Position1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
0.41%4.48%10.79%10.60%27.02%21.07%12.39%13.65%
Portfolio
Path Forward 2025
0.12%2.62%8.76%8.87%20.24%14.70%7.48%
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares
0.08%0.09%0.37%0.68%3.51%4.41%1.63%1.96%
SWPPX
Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund
-0.77%4.12%10.83%10.73%27.97%22.42%13.88%15.55%
VASGX
Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund
-0.68%3.18%10.11%10.76%24.24%17.63%8.85%10.71%
VBTLX
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares
-0.21%0.13%0.21%0.34%4.47%3.97%0.10%1.56%
VGSLX
Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares
-0.16%-1.43%7.80%6.96%9.66%9.13%2.17%5.18%
VMFXX
Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund
0.00%0.30%1.50%1.82%3.95%3.35%2.39%
VSIAX
Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares
-0.37%1.33%11.64%11.86%26.38%16.45%7.96%10.52%
VTRIX
Vanguard International Value Fund
-0.80%4.45%14.00%16.39%31.22%16.50%7.68%9.39%
VTSAX
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares
-0.75%4.07%11.13%10.86%28.10%22.03%12.68%15.03%
VWINX
Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Investor Shares
-0.31%0.62%3.24%3.37%10.63%8.75%3.99%5.77%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since May 26, 2021, Path Forward 2025's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.65%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 8.9 years.

Historically, 63% of months were positive and 37% were negative. The best month was Apr 2026 with a return of +6.7%, while the worst month was Sep 2022 at -6.7%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.

On a daily basis, Path Forward 2025 closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +5.7%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -3.8%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20261.99%1.18%-4.18%6.71%3.10%-0.02%8.76%
20252.40%-0.69%-3.23%-0.19%3.86%3.33%1.11%2.41%2.13%1.09%0.55%0.27%13.62%
2024-0.53%2.90%2.37%-3.33%3.23%1.06%2.52%1.59%1.73%-1.32%4.22%-2.97%11.73%
20235.50%-2.11%1.08%0.60%-0.73%4.31%2.65%-1.84%-3.25%-2.22%6.58%4.77%15.73%
2022-4.01%-1.56%1.23%-5.65%0.01%-5.70%5.45%-2.74%-6.70%4.41%4.62%-3.35%-14.01%
20210.68%1.12%0.68%1.53%-2.87%3.69%-1.72%2.70%5.79%

Benchmark Metrics

Path Forward 2025 has an annualized alpha of -0.40%, beta of 0.64, and R2 of 0.94 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since May 26, 2021.

  • This portfolio participated in 73.76% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 61.52% of its upside - more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
  • Beta of 0.64 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index - a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.

Alpha
-0.40%
Beta
0.64
0.94
Upside Capture
61.52%
Downside Capture
73.76%

Expense Ratio

Path Forward 2025 has an expense ratio of 0.09%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


Top 10 holdings

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Path Forward 2025 ranks 49 for risk / return — on par with similar Portfolios. You're getting a typical balance of risk and reward. Not a standout, but not a red flag either — a reasonable choice if other factors align with your goals.


Path Forward 2025 Risk / Return Rank: 4949
Overall Rank
Path Forward 2025 Sharpe Ratio Rank: 4545
Sharpe Ratio Rank
Path Forward 2025 Sortino Ratio Rank: 4949
Sortino Ratio Rank
Path Forward 2025 Omega Ratio Rank: 4848
Omega Ratio Rank
Path Forward 2025 Calmar Ratio Rank: 4848
Calmar Ratio Rank
Path Forward 2025 Martin Ratio Rank: 5757
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics

The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for Path Forward 2025 and compares them with S&P 500 Index.


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility

2.29

2.28

+0.01

Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk

3.27

3.12

+0.14

Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability

1.42

1.41

+0.01

Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown

3.14

2.98

+0.16

Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown

14.06

13.78

+0.28


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Path Forward 2025 Sharpe ratios as of Jun 5, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: 2.29
  • 5-Year: 0.67
  • All Time: 0.70

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 1.84 to 2.82, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This indicates that its risk-adjusted performance is in line with the majority of portfolios, suggesting a balanced approach to risk and return—likely suitable for a wide range of investors.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Path Forward 2025 compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

Path Forward 2025 provided a 3.29% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


PositionTTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio3.29%3.56%2.78%2.78%1.91%1.78%1.73%1.84%2.56%1.68%1.93%2.25%
BSV
Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF Shares
3.99%3.83%3.38%2.46%1.50%1.45%1.79%2.29%1.99%1.65%1.48%1.40%
SWPPX
Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund
1.00%1.11%1.23%1.43%1.67%1.27%1.81%1.95%2.67%1.79%2.55%3.17%
VASGX
Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth Fund
3.72%4.09%6.15%3.00%2.10%3.54%3.54%2.34%4.36%2.13%2.23%4.54%
VBTLX
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares
3.99%3.87%3.69%3.10%2.59%1.96%2.39%2.74%2.57%2.56%2.53%2.82%
VGSLX
Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares
3.69%3.92%3.85%3.91%3.91%2.56%3.92%3.39%4.73%4.23%4.82%3.92%
VMFXX
Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund
3.87%4.14%1.63%4.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
VSIAX
Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares
1.76%1.95%1.98%2.10%2.03%1.75%1.68%2.06%2.35%1.79%1.77%1.99%
VTRIX
Vanguard International Value Fund
15.87%18.10%8.53%2.78%2.75%4.35%1.58%2.96%6.24%1.86%2.29%2.13%
VTSAX
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares
1.01%1.11%1.26%1.42%1.65%1.20%1.41%1.76%2.03%1.71%1.92%1.98%
VWINX
Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Investor Shares
7.71%7.86%6.61%4.73%7.67%6.03%4.30%3.94%7.56%3.20%4.00%5.60%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Path Forward 2025. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Path Forward 2025 was 19.42%, occurring on Oct 14, 2022. Recovery took 332 trading sessions.

The current Path Forward 2025 drawdown is 0.45%.


Related event

Drawdown

Fall

Recovery

Underwater

Bear market2022
-19.42%Oct 2022
11mo 9d1y 4mo
2y 3moNov 2021 - Feb 2024
2025 selloff2025
-12.45%Apr 2025
1mo 18d2mo 3d
3mo 21dFeb 2025 - Jun 2025
2026 pullback2026
-6.46%Mar 2026
1mo 2d15d
1mo 17dFeb 2026 - Apr 2026
2024 pullback2024
-5.08%Aug 2024
19d18d
1mo 7dJul 2024 - Aug 2024
2025 pullback2025
-4.20%Jan 2025
1mo 6d1mo 9d
2mo 15dDec 2024 - Feb 2025

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 12 assets, with an effective number of assets of 9.01, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is well-distributed across most of your holdings, with only mild concentration in a few names. True diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.


Diversification Ratio
1Y
3Y
5Y
All Time
Diversification Ratio

1.15

1.14

1.12

1.12

The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.12, placing it in the bottom quartile across portfolios — positions are highly correlated. Consider adding assets from different classes or sectors to reduce risk.

Path Forward 2025 correlation to the S&P 500 Index

Path Forward 2025 has a 0.94 correlation to S&P 500 Index over the trailing 12 months. This section compares each holding's correlation to the benchmark and to the portfolio.

Correlation
Correlation (1Y)
Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

0.94

Correlation (3Y)
Calculated over the trailing 3-year period

0.94

Correlation (5Y)
Calculated over the trailing 5-year period

0.95

Correlation (All Time)
Calculated using the full available price history since May 26, 2021

0.95


Benchmark Correlations

Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. SWPPX has the highest benchmark correlation at 1.00, while VMFXX has the lowest at 0.04.

VMFXX
0.04
VBTLX
0.13
BSV
0.14
VGSLX
0.61
VWINX
0.66
VTRIX
0.74
VXUS
0.77
VSIAX
0.79
VXF
0.86
VASGX
0.95
VTSAX
0.99
SWPPX
1.00

Portfolio Correlations

Correlation vs. Path Forward 2025. VASGX has the highest portfolio correlation at 0.98, while VMFXX has the lowest at 0.06.

VMFXX
0.06
BSV
0.22
VBTLX
0.22
VGSLX
0.71
VWINX
0.75
VTRIX
0.84
VXUS
0.85
VSIAX
0.90
VXF
0.94
SWPPX
0.95
VTSAX
0.97
VASGX
0.98

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from May 26, 2021
Diversification Analysis

Find what Path Forward 2025 is missing

See which holdings overlap, where Path Forward 2025 is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.

Analyze Diversification