TRRDX vs. VFORX
TRRDX (T. Rowe Price Retirement 2040 Fund) and VFORX (Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund) are both Target Retirement Date funds. Over the past 10 years, TRRDX returned 10.30%/yr vs 10.23%/yr for VFORX. Their 0.98 correlation means they have historically moved very closely together. TRRDX charges 0.60%/yr vs 0.08%/yr for VFORX.
Performance
TRRDX vs. VFORX - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TRRDX achieves a 10.87% return, which is significantly higher than VFORX's 9.49% return. Both investments have delivered pretty close results over the past 10 years, with TRRDX having a 10.30% annualized return and VFORX not far behind at 10.23%.
TRRDX
- 1D
- 0.93%
- 1M
- 1.03%
- 6M
- 7.10%
- YTD
- 10.87%
- 1Y
- 14.71%
- 3Y*
- 14.32%
- 5Y*
- 7.14%
- 10Y*
- 10.30%
- ALL TIME*
- 9.64%
VFORX
- 1D
- 0.94%
- 1M
- 0.63%
- 6M
- 6.65%
- YTD
- 9.49%
- 1Y
- 18.15%
- 3Y*
- 15.91%
- 5Y*
- 8.24%
- 10Y*
- 10.23%
- ALL TIME*
- 8.18%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | |
| $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
TRRDX vs. VFORX - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TRRDX T. Rowe Price Retirement 2040 Fund | 10.87% | 12.53% | 13.15% | 19.60% | -18.77% | 16.52% | 18.10% | 24.71% | -7.41% | 22.03% |
VFORX Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund | 9.49% | 18.77% | 12.90% | 18.56% | -17.00% | 14.55% | 15.48% | 23.86% | -7.32% | 18.45% |
Correlation
The correlation between TRRDX and VFORX is 0.95 - they have historically moved very closely together. At this level, their price movements offset little of one another.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | 0.95 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | 0.95 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | 0.96 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | 0.97 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jun 7, 2006 | 0.98 |
The correlation between TRRDX and VFORX has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.95 to 0.98 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TRRDX vs. VFORX — Risk / Return Rank
TRRDX
VFORX
TRRDX vs. VFORX - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for T. Rowe Price Retirement 2040 Fund (TRRDX) and Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund (VFORX). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TRRDX | VFORX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.47 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.66 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.26 | 1.33 | -0.08 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 1.87 | 2.54 | -0.67 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 7.36 | 10.52 | -3.15 |
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Drawdowns
TRRDX vs. VFORX - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TRRDX drawdown since its inception was -53.50%, roughly equal to the maximum VFORX drawdown of -51.63%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TRRDX and VFORX.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TRRDX | VFORX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -53.50% | -51.63% | -1.87% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -8.88% | -7.70% | -1.18% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -14.03% | -12.12% | -1.91% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -27.26% | -24.32% | -2.94% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -31.46% | -29.35% | -2.11% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | 0.00% | -0.56% | +0.56% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -6.50% | -6.73% | +0.23% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 2.24% | 1.86% | +0.38% |
Volatility
TRRDX vs. VFORX - Volatility Comparison
T. Rowe Price Retirement 2040 Fund (TRRDX) and Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund (VFORX) have volatilities of 3.20% and 3.28%, respectively, indicating that both stocks experience similar levels of price fluctuations. This suggests that the risk associated with both stocks, as measured by volatility, is nearly the same. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TRRDX | VFORX | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 3.20% | 3.28% | -0.08% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 9.86% | 8.98% | +0.88% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 12.27% | 10.71% | +1.56% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 14.26% | 12.57% | +1.69% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 14.57% | 13.62% | +0.95% |
TRRDX vs. VFORX - Expense Ratio Comparison
TRRDX has a 0.60% expense ratio, which is higher than VFORX's 0.08% expense ratio.
Dividends
TRRDX vs. VFORX - Dividend Comparison
TRRDX has not paid dividends to shareholders, while VFORX's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.53%.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TRRDX T. Rowe Price Retirement 2040 Fund | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.26% | 5.60% | 8.92% | 7.92% | 4.96% | 6.10% | 9.51% | 3.96% | 3.36% | 4.61% |
VFORX Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund | 2.53% | 2.77% | 2.86% | 2.38% | 2.60% | 20.68% | 2.06% | 2.28% | 2.58% | 0.04% | 2.40% | 2.99% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.95, TRRDX and VFORX move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
VFORX has higher volatility (3.28%) compared to TRRDX (3.20%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TRRDX dropped -53.50% vs VFORX's -51.63%.
VFORX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.83 vs 1.36), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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