MUD vs. AIS

Last updated Jul 15, 2026

MUD (Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares) and AIS (VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - MUD is a Inverse Equities fund actively managed by Direxion, while AIS is a Technology Equities fund actively managed by VistaShares. Both are actively managed. Over the past year, MUD returned -92.87% vs 165.10% for AIS. At a correlation of -0.77, they often move in opposite directions. MUD charges 0.97%/yr vs 0.75%/yr for AIS.

Performance

MUD vs. AIS - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares (MUD) and VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (AIS). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, MUD achieves a -80.49% return, which is significantly lower than AIS's 96.03% return.

MUD

• 1D: -4.98%
• 1M: -8.95%
• 6M: -76.32%
• YTD: -80.49%
• 1Y: -92.87%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

AIS

• 1D: 2.92%
• 1M: -3.62%
• 6M: 81.47%
• YTD: 96.03%
• 1Y: 165.10%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

MUD vs. AIS - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024
MUD Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares	-80.49%	-78.75%	12.49%
AIS VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF	96.03%	58.35%	-4.74%

Correlation

The correlation between MUD and AIS is -0.77, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.77
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 3, 2024	-0.77

The correlation between MUD and AIS has been stable across timeframes, ranging from -0.77 to -0.77 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

MUD vs. AIS — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

MUD

MUD Risk / Return Rank: 1
MUD Sharpe Ratio Rank: 0
MUD Sortino Ratio Rank: 0
MUD Omega Ratio Rank: 0
MUD Calmar Ratio Rank: 0
MUD Martin Ratio Rank: 2

AIS

AIS Risk / Return Rank: 95
AIS Sharpe Ratio Rank: 97
AIS Sortino Ratio Rank: 92
AIS Omega Ratio Rank: 93
AIS Calmar Ratio Rank: 97
AIS Martin Ratio Rank: 96

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

MUD vs. AIS - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares (MUD) and VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (AIS). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	MUD	AIS	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-1.23	3.72	-4.95
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-3.70	3.60	-7.30
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.60	1.51	-0.91
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.98	8.92	-9.90
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.36	27.68	-29.05

MUD vs. AIS - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current MUD Sharpe Ratio is -1.23, which is lower than the AIS Sharpe Ratio of 3.72. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of MUD and AIS, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

MUD vs. AIS - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum MUD drawdown since its inception was -97.03%, which is greater than AIS's maximum drawdown of -32.78%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for MUD and AIS.

Drawdown Indicators

	MUD	AIS	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-97.03%	-32.78%	-64.25%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-94.76%	-18.63%	-76.13%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-96.41%	-16.25%	-80.16%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-53.04%	-5.71%	-47.33%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	67.99%	5.99%	+62.00%

Volatility

MUD vs. AIS - Volatility Comparison

Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares (MUD) has a higher volatility of 32.91% compared to VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (AIS) at 22.61%. This indicates that MUD's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than AIS based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	MUD	AIS	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	32.91%	22.61%	+10.30%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	64.59%	39.83%	+24.76%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	76.00%	44.64%	+31.36%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	71.22%	42.54%	+28.68%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	71.22%	42.54%	+28.68%

MUD vs. AIS - Expense Ratio Comparison

MUD has a 0.97% expense ratio, which is higher than AIS's 0.75% expense ratio.

Dividends

MUD vs. AIS - Dividend Comparison

MUD's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 12.55%, while AIS has not paid dividends to shareholders.

Position	TTM	2025	2024
AIS VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
MUD Direxion Daily MU Bear 1X Shares	12.55%	9.21%	0.47%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both MUD and AIS in my portfolio?

MUD and AIS have a correlation of -0.77, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, MUD or AIS?

MUD has higher volatility (32.91%) compared to AIS (22.61%). In terms of maximum drawdown, MUD dropped -97.03% vs AIS's -32.78%.

Which ETF is better, MUD or AIS?

On 1-year performance, AIS leads with 165.10% vs -92.87% for MUD. On fees, AIS is cheaper at 0.75% per year. On volatility, AIS has been the lower-risk option at 22.61%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, MUD or AIS?

Over the 1-year period, AIS has performed better with a 165.10% return vs -92.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, MUD or AIS?

AIS is cheaper with a 0.75% expense ratio, compared with 0.97% for MUD.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, MUD or AIS?

MUD has the higher dividend yield at 12.55%, compared with 0.00% for AIS.

What is the main difference between MUD and AIS?

MUD is categorized as Inverse Equities, while AIS is Technology Equities. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and VistaShares. Their fees differ too: 0.97% for MUD and 0.75% for AIS.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

AIS currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (3.72 vs -1.23), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.