PortfoliosLab logoPortfoliosLab logo
Test for next year
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


KMLM 10.00%ANGL 15.00%GLD 15.00%BRK-B 50.00%COPX 10.00%AlternativesAlternativesBondBondCommodityCommodityEquityEquity

S&P 500 Index

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Test for next year, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced when any position deviates by more than 40.0% from its target allocation.


Loading graphics...

The earliest data available for this chart is Dec 2, 2020, corresponding to the inception date of KMLM

Returns By Period


1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
0.11%-3.43%-3.84%-1.98%16.08%16.86%10.37%12.29%
Portfolio
Test for next year
-0.62%-3.73%0.32%5.79%9.34%17.28%13.33%
BRK-B
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
-0.24%-0.83%-5.03%-3.74%-11.23%15.44%13.08%12.79%
KMLM
KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF
1.25%4.87%9.21%11.72%9.50%0.87%5.74%
GLD
SPDR Gold Shares
-1.92%-8.27%8.35%21.03%49.02%32.51%21.53%13.97%
COPX
Global X Copper Miners ETF
-1.65%-11.68%7.06%29.42%102.29%27.96%18.88%21.18%
ANGL
VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF
0.28%-1.14%-0.28%0.34%6.53%7.48%3.37%6.74%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Dec 3, 2020, Test for next year's average daily return is +0.06%, while the average monthly return is +1.19%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 4.9 years.

Historically, 62% of months were positive and 38% were negative. The best month was Mar 2022 with a return of +7.0%, while the worst month was Jun 2022 at -10.9%. The longest winning streak lasted 5 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.

On a daily basis, Test for next year closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +5.4%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -5.7%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20262.41%6.60%-8.09%-0.02%0.32%
20252.84%5.98%3.67%0.16%-2.49%-0.98%-2.25%6.40%4.06%-1.91%5.61%1.14%23.92%
20243.71%4.03%4.65%-1.95%2.98%-1.95%5.20%5.11%-0.32%-1.91%3.50%-4.66%19.26%
20233.04%-2.79%1.87%4.18%-2.76%4.08%3.41%0.21%-2.21%-1.79%3.76%0.38%11.52%
20222.37%3.88%7.00%-6.09%-1.25%-10.87%5.27%-3.39%-3.44%5.35%6.78%-1.34%2.52%
2021-1.52%5.06%2.20%6.44%4.29%-3.88%0.45%1.18%-3.43%4.31%-3.30%5.46%17.79%

Benchmark Metrics

Test for next year has an annualized alpha of 8.27%, beta of 0.52, and R² of 0.46 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since December 03, 2020.

  • This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (69.12%) than losses (45.58%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
  • Beta of 0.52 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.46 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
  • R² of 0.46 means the benchmark explains less than half of this portfolio's behavior — treat beta with caution or consider switching to a more representative benchmark.

Alpha
8.27%
Beta
0.52
0.46
Upside Capture
69.12%
Downside Capture
45.58%

Expense Ratio

Test for next year has an expense ratio of 0.27%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Test for next year ranks 12 for risk / return — in the bottom 12% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.


Test for next year Risk / Return Rank: 1212
Overall Rank
Test for next year Sharpe Ratio Rank: 1212
Sharpe Ratio Rank
Test for next year Sortino Ratio Rank: 1010
Sortino Ratio Rank
Test for next year Omega Ratio Rank: 1111
Omega Ratio Rank
Test for next year Calmar Ratio Rank: 1414
Calmar Ratio Rank
Test for next year Martin Ratio Rank: 1313
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference

Sharpe ratio

Return per unit of total volatility

0.62

0.88

-0.26

Sortino ratio

Return per unit of downside risk

0.91

1.37

-0.46

Omega ratio

Gain probability vs. loss probability

1.13

1.21

-0.08

Calmar ratio

Return relative to maximum drawdown

0.92

1.39

-0.47

Martin ratio

Return relative to average drawdown

2.77

6.43

-3.66


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

Risk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
BRK-B
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
15-0.62-0.730.90-0.70-1.19
KMLM
KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF
440.961.391.181.424.22
GLD
SPDR Gold Shares
801.772.191.322.579.28
COPX
Global X Copper Miners ETF
912.442.771.383.6313.75
ANGL
VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF
501.001.401.241.295.29

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Test for next year Sharpe ratios as of Apr 3, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: 0.62
  • 5-Year: 1.06
  • All Time: 1.14

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 0.97 to 1.66, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio places it in the bottom 25%. This suggests weaker risk-adjusted returns than most portfolios, possibly due to lower returns, higher volatility, or both. It may be worth reviewing the allocation. You can use the Portfolio Optimization tool to explore options for improving the Sharpe ratio.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Test for next year compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


Loading graphics...

Dividends

Dividend yield

Test for next year provided a 1.67% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio1.67%1.70%1.21%1.03%2.34%1.43%0.83%0.92%1.16%0.94%0.86%0.99%
BRK-B
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
KMLM
KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF
4.60%5.02%0.82%0.00%13.22%6.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
GLD
SPDR Gold Shares
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
COPX
Global X Copper Miners ETF
2.50%2.68%1.80%2.39%3.14%1.48%1.30%1.37%2.59%1.57%0.60%1.20%
ANGL
VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF
6.41%6.20%6.29%5.27%4.72%3.90%4.67%5.19%5.99%5.25%5.34%5.81%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


Loading graphics...

Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Test for next year. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Test for next year was 20.83%, occurring on Sep 26, 2022. Recovery took 241 trading sessions.

The current Test for next year drawdown is 8.11%.


Depth

Start

To Bottom

Bottom

To Recover

End

Total

-20.83%Mar 28, 2022126Sep 26, 2022241Sep 12, 2023367
-10.8%Mar 2, 202619Mar 26, 2026
-8.11%Apr 3, 20253Apr 7, 202515Apr 29, 202518
-7.35%May 5, 202563Aug 4, 202521Sep 3, 202584
-7.27%May 11, 202148Jul 19, 2021118Jan 4, 2022166

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


Loading graphics...

Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 5 assets, with an effective number of assets of 3.17, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

BenchmarkKMLMGLDBRK-BANGLCOPXPortfolio
Benchmark1.00-0.090.120.540.670.500.61
KMLM-0.091.00-0.01-0.05-0.230.060.10
GLD0.12-0.011.000.040.250.440.36
BRK-B0.54-0.050.041.000.380.330.86
ANGL0.67-0.230.250.381.000.410.47
COPX0.500.060.440.330.411.000.68
Portfolio0.610.100.360.860.470.681.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Dec 3, 2020