Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
ANGL VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF | High Yield Bonds | 15% |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | Financial Services | 50% |
COPX Global X Copper Miners ETF | Materials | 10% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | Gold, Precious Metals | 15% |
KMLM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF | Long-Short, Actively Managed | 10% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Test for next year, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced when any position deviates by more than 40.0% from its target allocation.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Dec 2, 2020, corresponding to the inception date of KMLM
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -3.43% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 16.08% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio Test for next year | -0.62% | -3.73% | 0.32% | 5.79% | 9.34% | 17.28% | 13.33% | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | -0.24% | -0.83% | -5.03% | -3.74% | -11.23% | 15.44% | 13.08% | 12.79% |
KMLM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF | 1.25% | 4.87% | 9.21% | 11.72% | 9.50% | 0.87% | 5.74% | — |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | -1.92% | -8.27% | 8.35% | 21.03% | 49.02% | 32.51% | 21.53% | 13.97% |
COPX Global X Copper Miners ETF | -1.65% | -11.68% | 7.06% | 29.42% | 102.29% | 27.96% | 18.88% | 21.18% |
ANGL VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF | 0.28% | -1.14% | -0.28% | 0.34% | 6.53% | 7.48% | 3.37% | 6.74% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Dec 3, 2020, Test for next year's average daily return is +0.06%, while the average monthly return is +1.19%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 4.9 years.
Historically, 62% of months were positive and 38% were negative. The best month was Mar 2022 with a return of +7.0%, while the worst month was Jun 2022 at -10.9%. The longest winning streak lasted 5 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.
On a daily basis, Test for next year closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +5.4%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -5.7%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.41% | 6.60% | -8.09% | -0.02% | 0.32% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 2.84% | 5.98% | 3.67% | 0.16% | -2.49% | -0.98% | -2.25% | 6.40% | 4.06% | -1.91% | 5.61% | 1.14% | 23.92% |
| 2024 | 3.71% | 4.03% | 4.65% | -1.95% | 2.98% | -1.95% | 5.20% | 5.11% | -0.32% | -1.91% | 3.50% | -4.66% | 19.26% |
| 2023 | 3.04% | -2.79% | 1.87% | 4.18% | -2.76% | 4.08% | 3.41% | 0.21% | -2.21% | -1.79% | 3.76% | 0.38% | 11.52% |
| 2022 | 2.37% | 3.88% | 7.00% | -6.09% | -1.25% | -10.87% | 5.27% | -3.39% | -3.44% | 5.35% | 6.78% | -1.34% | 2.52% |
| 2021 | -1.52% | 5.06% | 2.20% | 6.44% | 4.29% | -3.88% | 0.45% | 1.18% | -3.43% | 4.31% | -3.30% | 5.46% | 17.79% |
Benchmark Metrics
Test for next year has an annualized alpha of 8.27%, beta of 0.52, and R² of 0.46 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since December 03, 2020.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (69.12%) than losses (45.58%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- Beta of 0.52 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.46 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R² of 0.46 means the benchmark explains less than half of this portfolio's behavior — treat beta with caution or consider switching to a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 8.27%
- Beta
- 0.52
- R²
- 0.46
- Upside Capture
- 69.12%
- Downside Capture
- 45.58%
Expense Ratio
Test for next year has an expense ratio of 0.27%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Test for next year ranks 12 for risk / return — in the bottom 12% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 0.62 | 0.88 | -0.26 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 0.91 | 1.37 | -0.46 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.13 | 1.21 | -0.08 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.92 | 1.39 | -0.47 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 2.77 | 6.43 | -3.66 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 15 | -0.62 | -0.73 | 0.90 | -0.70 | -1.19 |
KMLM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF | 44 | 0.96 | 1.39 | 1.18 | 1.42 | 4.22 |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 80 | 1.77 | 2.19 | 1.32 | 2.57 | 9.28 |
COPX Global X Copper Miners ETF | 91 | 2.44 | 2.77 | 1.38 | 3.63 | 13.75 |
ANGL VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF | 50 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 1.24 | 1.29 | 5.29 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Test for next year provided a 1.67% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 1.67% | 1.70% | 1.21% | 1.03% | 2.34% | 1.43% | 0.83% | 0.92% | 1.16% | 0.94% | 0.86% | 0.99% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
KMLM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF | 4.60% | 5.02% | 0.82% | 0.00% | 13.22% | 6.94% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
COPX Global X Copper Miners ETF | 2.50% | 2.68% | 1.80% | 2.39% | 3.14% | 1.48% | 1.30% | 1.37% | 2.59% | 1.57% | 0.60% | 1.20% |
ANGL VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF | 6.41% | 6.20% | 6.29% | 5.27% | 4.72% | 3.90% | 4.67% | 5.19% | 5.99% | 5.25% | 5.34% | 5.81% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Test for next year. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Test for next year was 20.83%, occurring on Sep 26, 2022. Recovery took 241 trading sessions.
The current Test for next year drawdown is 8.11%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -20.83% | Mar 28, 2022 | 126 | Sep 26, 2022 | 241 | Sep 12, 2023 | 367 |
| -10.8% | Mar 2, 2026 | 19 | Mar 26, 2026 | — | — | — |
| -8.11% | Apr 3, 2025 | 3 | Apr 7, 2025 | 15 | Apr 29, 2025 | 18 |
| -7.35% | May 5, 2025 | 63 | Aug 4, 2025 | 21 | Sep 3, 2025 | 84 |
| -7.27% | May 11, 2021 | 48 | Jul 19, 2021 | 118 | Jan 4, 2022 | 166 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 5 assets, with an effective number of assets of 3.17, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | KMLM | GLD | BRK-B | ANGL | COPX | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | -0.09 | 0.12 | 0.54 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| KMLM | -0.09 | 1.00 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.23 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| GLD | 0.12 | -0.01 | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| BRK-B | 0.54 | -0.05 | 0.04 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.86 |
| ANGL | 0.67 | -0.23 | 0.25 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| COPX | 0.50 | 0.06 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.41 | 1.00 | 0.68 |
| Portfolio | 0.61 | 0.10 | 0.36 | 0.86 | 0.47 | 0.68 | 1.00 |