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Guessing Portfolio Weighted
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


NVDA 20.00%TSEM 15.00%LCID 15.00%MSFT 10.00%JPM 10.00%VST 10.00%NTRA 5.00%QLYS 5.00%VRNA 5.00%MRCY 5.00%EquityEquity

S&P 500 Index

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Guessing Portfolio Weighted, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is never rebalanced.


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The earliest data available for this chart is Sep 18, 2020, corresponding to the inception date of LCID

Returns By Period


1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
0.11%-3.43%-3.84%-1.98%16.08%16.86%10.37%12.29%
Portfolio
Guessing Portfolio Weighted
0.24%5.29%3.26%4.39%70.95%61.58%36.91%
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
6.60%34.98%59.32%150.13%412.94%63.92%45.27%31.54%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
0.93%-1.47%-4.88%-6.08%60.69%85.17%66.71%70.07%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
1.11%-7.54%-22.60%-27.29%-1.52%10.00%9.94%22.58%
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
4.18%-1.48%-5.77%-58.67%-58.50%-49.86%-46.98%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
-0.26%-1.89%-8.16%-3.31%22.30%34.44%16.83%20.51%
VST
Vistra Corp.
-1.81%-6.38%-6.16%-25.19%19.47%87.75%56.62%
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
2.35%0.45%-9.21%29.82%45.24%56.49%15.11%35.97%
QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
2.50%-9.27%-33.51%-32.44%-31.54%-11.43%-3.18%13.01%
VRNA
Verona Pharma plc
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
2.52%-17.87%2.38%-7.92%71.88%13.50%0.64%13.56%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Sep 21, 2020, Guessing Portfolio Weighted's average daily return is +0.16%, while the average monthly return is +3.25%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 1.8 years.

Historically, 66% of months were positive and 34% were negative. The best month was Oct 2021 with a return of +20.5%, while the worst month was Apr 2022 at -16.1%. The longest winning streak lasted 7 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.

On a daily basis, Guessing Portfolio Weighted closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +14.8%, while the worst single day was Feb 23, 2021 at -17.0%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20262.48%-4.08%2.67%2.32%3.26%
20251.15%-2.81%-11.47%4.36%18.80%15.67%8.97%-0.71%6.27%5.07%-3.94%1.74%47.37%
20249.01%18.77%10.76%-2.26%19.54%5.61%-1.60%4.52%6.39%5.35%11.65%-2.68%121.67%
20239.24%0.87%6.00%1.71%7.65%4.15%6.41%-1.86%-9.26%-5.50%12.91%8.69%46.37%
2022-14.83%4.38%-0.28%-16.10%3.63%-10.65%8.78%-4.86%-10.24%6.14%2.03%-1.96%-32.08%
202119.50%9.79%-8.49%0.07%-2.08%18.23%-5.58%1.14%1.83%20.50%18.56%-8.86%76.13%

Benchmark Metrics

Guessing Portfolio Weighted has an annualized alpha of 23.52%, beta of 1.47, and R² of 0.50 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since September 21, 2020.

  • This portfolio captured 175.80% of S&P 500 Index gains but only 61.71% of its losses — a favorable profile for investors.
  • R² of 0.50 means the benchmark explains less than half of this portfolio's behavior — treat beta with caution or consider switching to a more representative benchmark.

Alpha
23.52%
Beta
1.47
0.50
Upside Capture
175.80%
Downside Capture
61.71%

Expense Ratio

Guessing Portfolio Weighted has an expense ratio of 0.00%, meaning no management fees are charged. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


The portfolio doesn't include any funds that charge management fees.

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Guessing Portfolio Weighted ranks 92 for risk / return — in the top 92% of portfolios on our site. This means strong returns relative to risk — exactly what professional investors look for. Well-suited for investors who want to maximize return per unit of risk.


Guessing Portfolio Weighted Risk / Return Rank: 9292
Overall Rank
Guessing Portfolio Weighted Sharpe Ratio Rank: 9292
Sharpe Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Weighted Sortino Ratio Rank: 9191
Sortino Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Weighted Omega Ratio Rank: 8888
Omega Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Weighted Calmar Ratio Rank: 9494
Calmar Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Weighted Martin Ratio Rank: 9595
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference

Sharpe ratio

Return per unit of total volatility

2.12

0.88

+1.24

Sortino ratio

Return per unit of downside risk

2.78

1.37

+1.41

Omega ratio

Gain probability vs. loss probability

1.38

1.21

+0.18

Calmar ratio

Return relative to maximum drawdown

4.83

1.39

+3.44

Martin ratio

Return relative to average drawdown

19.84

6.43

+13.40


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

Risk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
996.605.101.7016.9661.93
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
811.472.171.273.027.54
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
35-0.060.111.01-0.05-0.12
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
9-0.77-1.270.87-0.86-1.34
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
670.891.281.181.514.05
VST
Vistra Corp.
520.350.851.110.701.47
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
711.101.681.211.704.53
QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
9-0.77-1.040.86-0.71-1.82
VRNA
Verona Pharma plc
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
791.341.931.282.286.72

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Guessing Portfolio Weighted Sharpe ratios as of Apr 2, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: 2.12
  • 5-Year: 1.09
  • All Time: 1.20

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 1.00 to 1.70, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio is in the top 25%. This signifies superior risk-adjusted performance, meaning the portfolio is delivering strong returns for the level of risk taken compared to most others.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Guessing Portfolio Weighted compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

Guessing Portfolio Weighted provided a 0.35% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio0.35%0.30%0.33%0.53%0.74%0.58%0.68%0.63%0.51%0.44%2.04%0.73%
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
0.02%0.02%0.03%0.03%0.11%0.05%0.12%0.27%0.46%0.29%0.45%1.20%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
0.93%0.70%0.73%0.74%1.06%0.68%0.94%1.20%1.69%1.86%2.37%2.33%
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
1.97%1.72%1.92%2.38%2.98%2.34%2.83%2.37%2.54%1.91%2.13%2.54%
VST
Vistra Corp.
0.60%0.56%0.63%2.13%3.12%2.64%2.75%2.17%0.00%0.00%14.97%0.00%
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
VRNA
Verona Pharma plc
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Guessing Portfolio Weighted. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Guessing Portfolio Weighted was 45.80%, occurring on Oct 14, 2022. Recovery took 326 trading sessions.

The current Guessing Portfolio Weighted drawdown is 1.18%.


Depth

Start

To Bottom

Bottom

To Recover

End

Total

-45.8%Nov 22, 2021226Oct 14, 2022326Feb 2, 2024552
-37.2%Feb 19, 202158May 12, 2021124Nov 5, 2021182
-34.2%Jan 24, 202550Apr 4, 202547Jun 12, 202597
-19.94%Jul 11, 202418Aug 5, 202436Sep 25, 202454
-12.9%Mar 26, 202418Apr 19, 202411May 6, 202429

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 10 assets, with an effective number of assets of 8.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets indicates a moderate level of diversification, where some assets may have a more significant influence on overall performance.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

BenchmarkVRNAMRCYVSTJPMLCIDQLYSTSEMNTRAMSFTNVDAPortfolio
Benchmark1.000.210.430.420.580.400.500.510.460.740.680.73
VRNA0.211.000.150.160.140.150.170.170.230.130.160.30
MRCY0.430.151.000.250.270.280.290.260.260.230.220.34
VST0.420.160.251.000.290.190.190.220.260.260.310.50
JPM0.580.140.270.291.000.280.220.300.220.280.290.40
LCID0.400.150.280.190.281.000.310.270.310.250.290.53
QLYS0.500.170.290.190.220.311.000.250.350.440.340.40
TSEM0.510.170.260.220.300.270.251.000.330.340.440.54
NTRA0.460.230.260.260.220.310.350.331.000.360.410.50
MSFT0.740.130.230.260.280.250.440.340.361.000.620.59
NVDA0.680.160.220.310.290.290.340.440.410.621.000.82
Portfolio0.730.300.340.500.400.530.400.540.500.590.821.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Sep 21, 2020