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Guessing Portfolio Weighted
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


NVDA 20.00%TSEM 15.00%LCID 15.00%MSFT 10.00%JPM 10.00%VST 10.00%NTRA 5.00%QLYS 5.00%VRNA 5.00%MRCY 5.00%EquityEquity

S&P 500 Index

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Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Guessing Portfolio Weighted, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is never rebalanced.


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Returns By Period


Position1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
-1.44%-1.45%7.60%6.59%22.24%19.20%11.54%13.71%
Portfolio
Guessing Portfolio Weighted
-5.00%-1.93%23.13%21.44%53.63%64.90%39.66%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
0.80%9.06%4.70%3.51%22.41%37.10%19.98%22.02%
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
0.58%-11.13%-50.90%-55.37%-75.97%-54.39%-53.87%
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
-0.80%12.50%51.86%47.69%113.91%47.05%10.77%16.46%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
1.80%-10.66%-22.33%-22.85%-22.44%4.54%7.88%23.85%
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
2.60%15.54%2.48%-0.27%37.79%65.95%14.42%33.08%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
-4.13%-6.99%7.39%5.85%38.94%68.08%59.90%67.94%
QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
3.52%9.73%-15.48%-19.23%-19.98%-3.38%2.00%14.09%
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
-10.79%-0.28%140.72%133.42%604.69%94.28%57.62%37.14%
VRNA
Verona Pharma plc
VST
Vistra Corp.
-2.91%4.06%0.94%0.72%-12.49%88.21%57.72%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Sep 18, 2020, Guessing Portfolio Weighted's average daily return is +0.17%, while the average monthly return is +3.40%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 1.7 years.

Historically, 67% of months were positive and 33% were negative. The best month was Oct 2021 with a return of +20.3%, while the worst month was Apr 2022 at -15.9%. The longest winning streak lasted 7 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.

On a daily basis, Guessing Portfolio Weighted closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +14.8%, while the worst single day was Feb 23, 2021 at -16.8%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20262.51%-4.08%2.79%12.87%6.99%0.88%23.13%
20251.20%-2.89%-11.47%4.37%18.77%15.66%8.93%-0.66%6.29%5.07%-3.83%1.74%47.50%
20248.92%18.72%10.74%-2.24%19.49%5.56%-1.58%4.53%6.41%5.31%11.71%-2.68%121.30%
20239.05%0.89%5.99%1.73%7.48%4.12%6.37%-1.91%-9.25%-5.47%12.94%8.70%45.87%
2022-14.75%4.51%-0.22%-15.92%3.58%-10.57%8.72%-4.79%-10.21%6.11%2.11%-1.94%-31.62%
202119.08%9.59%-8.34%0.12%-2.08%18.00%-5.49%1.21%1.72%20.28%18.30%-8.62%75.08%

Benchmark Metrics

Guessing Portfolio Weighted has an annualized alpha of 22.84%, beta of 1.48, and R2 of 0.50 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since September 18, 2020.

  • This portfolio captured 172.81% of S&P 500 Index gains but only 58.98% of its losses - a favorable profile for investors.
  • This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 22.84% versus S&P 500 Index - delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.

Alpha
22.84%
Beta
1.48
0.50
Upside Capture
172.81%
Downside Capture
58.98%

Expense Ratio

Guessing Portfolio Weighted has an expense ratio of 0.00%, meaning no management fees are charged. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


The portfolio doesn't include any funds that charge management fees.

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Guessing Portfolio Weighted ranks 55 for risk / return — on par with similar Portfolios. You're getting a typical balance of risk and reward. Not a standout, but not a red flag either — a reasonable choice if other factors align with your goals.


Guessing Portfolio Weighted Risk / Return Rank: 5555
Overall Rank
Guessing Portfolio Weighted Sharpe Ratio Rank: 4040
Sharpe Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Weighted Sortino Ratio Rank: 3636
Sortino Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Weighted Omega Ratio Rank: 3333
Omega Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Weighted Calmar Ratio Rank: 8888
Calmar Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Weighted Martin Ratio Rank: 7777
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics

The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for Guessing Portfolio Weighted and compares them with S&P 500 Index.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility

1.85

1.78

+0.07

Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk

2.45

2.44

+0.01

Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability

1.31

1.32

-0.02

Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown

4.98

2.46

+2.52

Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown

15.17

10.92

+4.25


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

PositionRisk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
68
1.021.451.191.463.43
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
6
-0.98-2.190.77-0.90-1.31
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
87
2.012.621.373.568.87
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
12
-0.87-1.100.86-0.66-1.32
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
66
0.881.371.171.352.80
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
72
1.101.651.201.944.51
QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
25
-0.44-0.390.95-0.40-0.81
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
99
8.605.741.7524.3784.04
VRNA
Verona Pharma plc
VST
Vistra Corp.
31
-0.26-0.041.00-0.33-0.59

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk. Learn how to interpret the Sharpe ratio.

The current Guessing Portfolio Weighted Sharpe ratio is 1.85 as of Jun 24, 2026 (the value is recalculated daily), calculated over the past 12 months.

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 1.49 to 2.37, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This indicates that its risk-adjusted performance is in line with the majority of portfolios, suggesting a balanced approach to risk and return—likely suitable for a wide range of investors.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Guessing Portfolio Weighted compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

Guessing Portfolio Weighted provided a 0.36% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


PositionTTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio0.36%0.30%0.33%0.53%0.74%0.58%0.68%0.63%0.51%0.44%2.04%0.73%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
1.77%1.72%1.92%2.38%2.98%2.34%2.83%2.37%2.54%1.91%2.13%2.54%
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
0.95%0.70%0.73%0.74%1.06%0.68%0.94%1.20%1.69%1.86%2.37%2.33%
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
0.14%0.02%0.03%0.03%0.11%0.05%0.12%0.27%0.46%0.29%0.45%1.20%
QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
VRNA
Verona Pharma plc
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
VST
Vistra Corp.
0.56%0.56%0.63%2.13%3.12%2.64%2.75%2.17%0.00%0.00%14.97%0.00%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Guessing Portfolio Weighted. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Guessing Portfolio Weighted was 45.29%, occurring on Oct 14, 2022. Recovery took 326 trading sessions.

The current Guessing Portfolio Weighted drawdown is 5.00%.


Related event

Drawdown

Fall

Recovery

Underwater

Bear market2022
-45.29%Oct 2022
10mo 26d1y 3mo
2y 2moNov 2021 - Feb 2024
2021 bear market2021
-36.80%May 2021
2mo 22d5mo 27d
8mo 19dFeb 2021 - Nov 2021
2025 selloff2025
-34.23%Apr 2025
2mo 10d2mo 9d
4mo 19dJan 2025 - Jun 2025
2024 correction2024
-19.89%Aug 2024
25d1mo 20d
2mo 15dJul 2024 - Sep 2024
2024 correction2024
-12.84%Apr 2024
24d17d
1mo 11dMar 2024 - May 2024

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 10 assets, with an effective number of assets of 8.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is well-distributed across most of your holdings, with only mild concentration in a few names. True diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.


Diversification Ratio
1Y
3Y
5Y
All Time
Diversification Ratio

1.74

1.69

1.66

1.69

The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.69, in line with the typical range across portfolios. There's room to improve by adding less correlated assets.

Guessing Portfolio Weighted correlation to the S&P 500 Index

Guessing Portfolio Weighted has a 0.67 correlation to S&P 500 Index over the trailing 12 months. This section compares each holding's correlation to the benchmark and to the portfolio.

Correlation
Correlation (1Y)
Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

0.67

Correlation (3Y)
Calculated over the trailing 3-year period

0.72

Correlation (5Y)
Calculated over the trailing 5-year period

0.76

Correlation (All Time)
Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 18, 2020

0.73


Benchmark Correlations

Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. MSFT has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.72, while VRNA has the lowest at 0.20.

VRNA
0.20
LCID
0.40
VST
0.42
MRCY
0.43
NTRA
0.45
QLYS
0.48
TSEM
0.51
JPM
0.57
NVDA
0.68
MSFT
0.72

Portfolio Correlations

Correlation vs. Guessing Portfolio Weighted. NVDA has the highest portfolio correlation at 0.82, while VRNA has the lowest at 0.30.

VRNA
0.30
MRCY
0.34
QLYS
0.38
JPM
0.39
NTRA
0.48
VST
0.51
LCID
0.52
TSEM
0.56
MSFT
0.57
NVDA
0.82

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Sep 18, 2020
Diversification Analysis

Find what Guessing Portfolio Weighted is missing

See which holdings overlap, where Guessing Portfolio Weighted is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.

Analyze Diversification