Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 38% | |
EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | Emerging Markets Bonds | 20% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | Large Cap Growth Equities | 38% |
USDT-USD Tether | 4% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 40 40 20, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Mar 28, 2017, corresponding to the inception date of USDT-USD
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.44% | -1.90% | -3.41% | -1.91% | 30.31% | 17.22% | 10.14% | 12.44% |
Portfolio 40 40 20 | 0.04% | -0.34% | -9.91% | -19.81% | 12.62% | 26.73% | 11.03% | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | -0.03% | -1.41% | -1.12% | 1.34% | 11.63% | 8.45% | 1.90% | 3.25% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.60% | -1.75% | -4.08% | -2.91% | 39.91% | 23.49% | 12.83% | 19.23% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -0.48% | 2.10% | -21.51% | -44.94% | -12.37% | 34.97% | 4.18% | 66.50% |
USDT-USD Tether | 0.03% | -0.01% | 0.13% | -0.05% | 0.06% | -0.02% | -0.04% | — |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Mar 29, 2017, 40 40 20's average daily return is +0.11%, while the average monthly return is +3.32%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 1.8 years.
Historically, 59% of months were positive and 41% were negative. The best month was May 2017 with a return of +31.4%, while the worst month was Jun 2022 at -16.9%. The longest winning streak lasted 7 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 5 months.
On a daily basis, 40 40 20 closed higher 53% of trading days. The best single day was Dec 7, 2017 with a return of +15.7%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -20.4%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.30% | -5.82% | -2.16% | 1.11% | -9.91% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 4.88% | -7.67% | -3.93% | 5.85% | 8.11% | 3.90% | 4.08% | -1.82% | 4.39% | 0.72% | -6.85% | -1.26% | 9.29% |
| 2024 | 0.68% | 18.85% | 8.09% | -7.90% | 6.97% | -0.06% | 1.10% | -2.59% | 4.17% | 3.21% | 17.26% | -1.83% | 55.25% |
| 2023 | 19.97% | -0.56% | 13.80% | 1.28% | 0.07% | 7.31% | 0.29% | -5.04% | -1.44% | 9.84% | 8.74% | 8.08% | 78.92% |
| 2022 | -10.30% | 1.33% | 3.63% | -13.03% | -5.96% | -16.85% | 11.79% | -8.01% | -6.58% | 3.56% | -2.23% | -5.24% | -40.96% |
| 2021 | 5.19% | 14.47% | 15.39% | 2.10% | -13.20% | 1.14% | 8.08% | 7.26% | -5.69% | 18.68% | -2.93% | -7.60% | 44.94% |
Benchmark Metrics
40 40 20 has an annualized alpha of 24.71%, beta of 0.85, and R² of 0.28 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since March 29, 2017.
- This portfolio captured 157.13% of S&P 500 Index gains but only 74.13% of its losses — a favorable profile for investors.
- R² of 0.28 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 24.71%
- Beta
- 0.85
- R²
- 0.28
- Upside Capture
- 157.13%
- Downside Capture
- 74.13%
Expense Ratio
40 40 20 has an expense ratio of 0.15%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
40 40 20 ranks 4 for risk / return — in the bottom 4% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 0.59 | 1.84 | -1.26 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 0.99 | 2.97 | -1.98 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.11 | 1.40 | -0.29 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.95 | 1.82 | -2.77 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.86 | 7.76 | -9.62 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | 75 | 1.73 | 2.47 | 1.37 | 2.07 | 8.62 |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 79 | 1.91 | 2.97 | 1.40 | 2.02 | 7.51 |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 48 | -0.28 | -0.12 | 0.99 | -1.10 | -1.92 |
USDT-USD Tether | 81 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 1.02 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
40 40 20 provided a 1.21% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 1.21% | 1.17% | 1.30% | 1.18% | 1.31% | 0.94% | 0.99% | 1.19% | 1.47% | 1.23% | 1.37% | 1.34% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF | 5.15% | 4.98% | 5.46% | 4.74% | 5.04% | 3.89% | 3.88% | 4.51% | 5.64% | 4.54% | 4.83% | 4.84% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.48% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
USDT-USD Tether | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 40 40 20. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the 40 40 20 was 51.80%, occurring on Dec 25, 2018. Recovery took 183 trading sessions.
The current 40 40 20 drawdown is 19.81%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -51.8% | Dec 17, 2017 | 374 | Dec 25, 2018 | 183 | Jun 26, 2019 | 557 |
| -51.64% | Nov 9, 2021 | 366 | Nov 9, 2022 | 474 | Feb 26, 2024 | 840 |
| -35.87% | Feb 15, 2020 | 31 | Mar 16, 2020 | 128 | Jul 22, 2020 | 159 |
| -22.57% | Oct 7, 2025 | 174 | Mar 29, 2026 | — | — | — |
| -21.04% | Dec 17, 2024 | 113 | Apr 8, 2025 | 44 | May 22, 2025 | 157 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 4 assets, with an effective number of assets of 3.03, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | USDT-USD | EMB | BTC-USD | QQQ | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.09 | 0.49 | 0.24 | 0.91 | 0.51 |
| USDT-USD | 0.09 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| EMB | 0.49 | 0.05 | 1.00 | 0.11 | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| BTC-USD | 0.24 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.93 |
| QQQ | 0.91 | 0.09 | 0.42 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.45 |
| Portfolio | 0.51 | 0.12 | 0.26 | 0.93 | 0.45 | 1.00 |