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Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


NVDA 7.14%MSFT 7.14%ZYME 7.14%NTRA 7.14%MRCY 7.14%TTAN 7.14%PVLA 7.14%TSEM 7.14%JPM 7.14%BRO 7.14%QLYS 7.14%LCID 7.14%VST 7.14%VRNA 7.14%EquityEquity

S&P 500 Index

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Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.


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Returns By Period


Position1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
-1.44%-1.45%7.60%6.59%22.24%19.20%11.54%13.71%
Portfolio
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights
-0.76%2.13%2.00%0.26%42.94%
BRO
Brown & Brown, Inc.
3.71%4.46%-23.82%-24.07%-45.06%-2.44%3.28%13.98%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
0.80%9.06%4.70%3.51%22.41%37.10%19.98%22.02%
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
0.58%-11.13%-50.90%-55.37%-75.97%-54.39%-53.87%
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
-0.80%12.50%51.86%47.69%113.91%47.05%10.77%16.46%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
1.80%-10.66%-22.33%-22.85%-22.44%4.54%7.88%23.85%
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
2.60%15.54%2.48%-0.27%37.79%65.95%14.42%33.08%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
-4.13%-6.99%7.39%5.85%38.94%68.08%59.90%67.94%
PVLA
Palvella Therapeutics, Inc
-0.13%4.11%13.38%18.36%426.53%
QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
3.52%9.73%-15.48%-19.23%-19.98%-3.38%2.00%14.09%
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
-10.79%-0.28%140.72%133.42%604.69%94.28%57.62%37.14%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Dec 16, 2024, Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights's average daily return is +0.16%, while the average monthly return is +3.11%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 1.9 years.

Historically, 74% of months were positive and 26% were negative. The best month was Aug 2025 with a return of +9.2%, while the worst month was Jan 2026 at -3.3%. The longest winning streak lasted 9 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.

On a daily basis, Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +9.5%, while the worst single day was Apr 3, 2025 at -6.0%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
2026-3.28%-1.15%-2.94%2.90%7.82%-0.94%2.00%
20253.78%0.62%-0.37%4.49%5.80%7.63%6.24%9.18%7.67%2.27%6.77%0.27%69.28%
20242.31%2.31%

Benchmark Metrics

Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights has an annualized alpha of 27.75%, beta of 1.13, and R2 of 0.61 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since December 16, 2024.

  • This portfolio captured 151.11% of S&P 500 Index gains and tended to rise during its downturns (downside capture of -12.45%) - a profile typical of hedging or uncorrelated assets.
  • This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 27.75% versus S&P 500 Index - delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
  • With beta of 1.13 and R2 of 0.61, this portfolio moves broadly in line with S&P 500 Index - much of its variation is explained by market exposure rather than independent behavior.

Alpha
27.75%
Beta
1.13
0.61
Upside Capture
151.11%
Downside Capture
-12.45%

Expense Ratio

Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights has an expense ratio of 0.00%, meaning no management fees are charged. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


The portfolio doesn't include any funds that charge management fees.

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights ranks 45 for risk / return — on par with similar Portfolios. You're getting a typical balance of risk and reward. Not a standout, but not a red flag either — a reasonable choice if other factors align with your goals.


Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Risk / Return Rank: 4545
Overall Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Sharpe Ratio Rank: 4545
Sharpe Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Sortino Ratio Rank: 4747
Sortino Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Omega Ratio Rank: 3636
Omega Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Calmar Ratio Rank: 6262
Calmar Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Martin Ratio Rank: 3535
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics

The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights and compares them with S&P 500 Index.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility

1.95

1.78

+0.17

Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk

2.73

2.44

+0.30

Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability

1.32

1.32

0.00

Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown

3.23

2.46

+0.77

Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown

9.16

10.92

-1.76


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

PositionRisk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
BRO
Brown & Brown, Inc.
4
-1.58-2.340.70-0.89-1.46
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
68
1.021.451.191.463.43
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
6
-0.98-2.190.77-0.90-1.31
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
87
2.012.621.373.568.87
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
12
-0.87-1.100.86-0.66-1.32
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
66
0.881.371.171.352.80
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
72
1.101.651.201.944.51
PVLA
Palvella Therapeutics, Inc
97
5.324.471.5413.8231.14
QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
25
-0.44-0.390.95-0.40-0.81
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
99
8.605.741.7524.3784.04

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk. Learn how to interpret the Sharpe ratio.

The current Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Sharpe ratio is 1.95 as of Jun 24, 2026 (the value is recalculated daily), calculated over the past 12 months.

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 1.49 to 2.37, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This indicates that its risk-adjusted performance is in line with the majority of portfolios, suggesting a balanced approach to risk and return—likely suitable for a wide range of investors.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights provided a 0.32% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


PositionTTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio0.32%0.27%0.27%0.43%0.57%0.45%0.53%0.49%0.41%0.37%1.50%0.53%
BRO
Brown & Brown, Inc.
1.07%0.77%0.53%0.67%0.74%0.54%0.73%0.82%1.11%1.08%1.12%1.41%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
1.77%1.72%1.92%2.38%2.98%2.34%2.83%2.37%2.54%1.91%2.13%2.54%
LCID
Lucid Group, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
0.95%0.70%0.73%0.74%1.06%0.68%0.94%1.20%1.69%1.86%2.37%2.33%
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
0.14%0.02%0.03%0.03%0.11%0.05%0.12%0.27%0.46%0.29%0.45%1.20%
PVLA
Palvella Therapeutics, Inc
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
QLYS
Qualys, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights was 18.00%, occurring on Apr 8, 2025. Recovery took 24 trading sessions.

The current Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights drawdown is 1.55%.


Related event

Drawdown

Fall

Recovery

Underwater

2025 selloff2025
-18.00%Apr 2025
1mo 18d1mo 5d
2mo 23dFeb 2025 - May 2025
2026 correction2026
-13.35%Mar 2026
3mo 7d2mo
5mo 7dDec 2025 - May 2026
2026 pullback2026
-6.48%Jun 2026
8d
22d 5hJun 2026 - now
2025 pullback2025
-5.74%Jan 2025
3d9d
12dJan 2025 - Feb 2025
2025 pullback2025
-5.03%Aug 2025
8d12d
20dJul 2025 - Aug 2025

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 14 assets, with an effective number of assets of 14.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is spread almost evenly across your holdings, indicating a well-balanced allocation. Note that true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.


Diversification Ratio
1Y
All Time
Diversification Ratio

2.22

1.99

The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.99, placing it in the top 5% across portfolios — assets in this portfolio move largely independently, providing strong diversification benefit.

Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights correlation to the S&P 500 Index

Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights has a 0.71 correlation to S&P 500 Index over the trailing 12 months. This section compares each holding's correlation to the benchmark and to the portfolio.

Correlation
Correlation (1Y)
Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

0.71

Correlation (All Time)
Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 16, 2024

0.74


Benchmark Correlations

Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. NVDA has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.67, while BRO has the lowest at 0.05.

BRO
0.05
VRNA
0.16
PVLA
0.24
TTAN
0.28
QLYS
0.30
ZYME
0.35
NTRA
0.41
LCID
0.41
VST
0.45
MRCY
0.48

Portfolio Correlations

Correlation vs. Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights. LCID has the highest portfolio correlation at 0.57, while BRO has the lowest at 0.05.

BRO
0.05
VRNA
0.31
QLYS
0.36
TTAN
0.40
PVLA
0.47
JPM
0.47
MSFT
0.48
MRCY
0.53
ZYME
0.53
NTRA
0.55

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Dec 16, 2024
Diversification Analysis

Find what Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights is missing

See which holdings overlap, where Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.

Analyze Diversification