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Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


NVDA 7.14%MSFT 7.14%ZYME 7.14%NTRA 7.14%MRCY 7.14%TTAN 7.14%PVLA 7.14%TSEM 7.14%JPM 7.14%BRO 7.14%QLYS 7.14%LCID 7.14%VST 7.14%VRNA 7.14%EquityEquity

S&P 500 Index

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.


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The earliest data available for this chart is Dec 16, 2024, corresponding to the inception date of PVLA

Returns By Period


1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
0.11%-3.43%-3.84%-1.98%16.08%16.86%10.37%12.29%
Portfolio
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights
1.22%-1.50%-5.39%2.48%51.88%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
0.93%-1.47%-4.88%-6.08%60.69%85.17%66.71%70.07%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
1.11%-7.54%-22.60%-27.29%-1.52%10.00%9.94%22.58%
ZYME
Zymeworks Inc.
-0.54%5.52%-2.01%52.66%116.44%40.16%-3.89%
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
2.35%0.45%-9.21%29.82%45.24%56.49%15.11%35.97%
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
-0.71%-17.01%1.66%-10.10%64.49%13.48%0.49%13.85%
TTAN
ServiceTitan, Inc
0.80%-16.96%-40.91%-39.34%-35.87%
PVLA
Palvella Therapeutics, Inc
-3.43%-9.22%15.01%90.38%410.30%
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
5.74%57.57%68.46%159.61%429.73%66.65%46.89%32.28%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
-0.26%-1.89%-8.16%-3.31%22.30%34.44%16.83%20.51%
BRO
Brown & Brown, Inc.
2.41%-8.61%-17.06%-29.12%-46.52%5.28%7.96%15.06%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Dec 17, 2024, Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights's average daily return is +0.16%, while the average monthly return is +2.88%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 2.0 years.

Historically, 71% of months were positive and 29% were negative. The best month was Aug 2025 with a return of +9.2%, while the worst month was Jan 2026 at -3.3%. The longest winning streak lasted 9 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.

On a daily basis, Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +9.5%, while the worst single day was Apr 3, 2025 at -6.0%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
2026-3.28%-1.15%-2.94%1.95%-5.39%
20253.78%0.62%-0.37%4.49%5.80%7.63%6.24%9.18%7.67%2.27%6.77%0.27%69.28%
2024-0.03%-0.03%

Benchmark Metrics

Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights has an annualized alpha of 36.41%, beta of 1.14, and R² of 0.63 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since December 17, 2024.

  • This portfolio captured 207.28% of S&P 500 Index gains and tended to rise during its downturns (downside capture of -4.95%) — a profile typical of hedging or uncorrelated assets.
  • This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 36.41% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
  • With beta of 1.14 and R² of 0.63, this portfolio moves broadly in line with S&P 500 Index — much of its variation is explained by market exposure rather than independent behavior.

Alpha
36.41%
Beta
1.14
0.63
Upside Capture
207.28%
Downside Capture
-4.95%

Expense Ratio

Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights has an expense ratio of 0.00%, meaning no management fees are charged. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


The portfolio doesn't include any funds that charge management fees.

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights ranks 88 for risk / return — in the top 88% of portfolios on our site. This means strong returns relative to risk — exactly what professional investors look for. Well-suited for investors who want to maximize return per unit of risk.


Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Risk / Return Rank: 8888
Overall Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Sharpe Ratio Rank: 9191
Sharpe Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Sortino Ratio Rank: 9292
Sortino Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Omega Ratio Rank: 8585
Omega Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Calmar Ratio Rank: 9090
Calmar Ratio Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Martin Ratio Rank: 8181
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference

Sharpe ratio

Return per unit of total volatility

2.07

0.88

+1.19

Sortino ratio

Return per unit of downside risk

2.85

1.37

+1.49

Omega ratio

Gain probability vs. loss probability

1.37

1.21

+0.16

Calmar ratio

Return relative to maximum drawdown

4.12

1.39

+2.73

Martin ratio

Return relative to average drawdown

12.89

6.43

+6.45


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

Risk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
811.472.171.273.027.54
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
35-0.060.111.01-0.05-0.12
ZYME
Zymeworks Inc.
912.103.041.375.8713.34
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
711.101.681.211.704.53
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
761.211.811.262.206.38
TTAN
ServiceTitan, Inc
14-0.71-0.890.90-0.63-1.28
PVLA
Palvella Therapeutics, Inc
974.784.111.4811.0326.80
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
996.855.191.7117.6764.52
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
670.891.281.181.514.05
BRO
Brown & Brown, Inc.
2-1.65-2.390.68-0.96-1.58

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights Sharpe ratios as of Apr 2, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: 2.07
  • All Time: 1.72

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 1.01 to 1.70, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio is in the top 25%. This signifies superior risk-adjusted performance, meaning the portfolio is delivering strong returns for the level of risk taken compared to most others.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights provided a 0.32% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio0.32%0.27%0.27%0.43%0.57%0.45%0.53%0.49%0.41%0.37%1.50%0.53%
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
0.02%0.02%0.03%0.03%0.11%0.05%0.12%0.27%0.46%0.29%0.45%1.20%
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
0.93%0.70%0.73%0.74%1.06%0.68%0.94%1.20%1.69%1.86%2.37%2.33%
ZYME
Zymeworks Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
NTRA
Natera, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TTAN
ServiceTitan, Inc
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
PVLA
Palvella Therapeutics, Inc
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
TSEM
Tower Semiconductor Ltd
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
1.97%1.72%1.92%2.38%2.98%2.34%2.83%2.37%2.54%1.91%2.13%2.54%
BRO
Brown & Brown, Inc.
0.96%0.77%0.53%0.67%0.74%0.54%0.73%0.82%1.11%1.08%1.12%1.41%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights was 18.00%, occurring on Apr 8, 2025. Recovery took 24 trading sessions.

The current Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights drawdown is 8.93%.


Depth

Start

To Bottom

Bottom

To Recover

End

Total

-18%Feb 19, 202535Apr 8, 202524May 13, 202559
-13.35%Dec 23, 202566Mar 30, 2026
-5.74%Jan 24, 20252Jan 27, 20257Feb 5, 20259
-5.03%Jul 24, 20257Aug 1, 20258Aug 13, 202515
-4.79%Dec 17, 20242Dec 18, 20243Dec 23, 20245

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 14 assets, with an effective number of assets of 14.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests that the portfolio's investments are spread across a variety of assets, indicating a well-diversified allocation. However, true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

BenchmarkBROPVLAVRNATTANQLYSZYMEMRCYLCIDNTRAVSTTSEMMSFTJPMNVDAPortfolio
Benchmark1.000.120.230.180.320.360.350.470.440.440.450.510.620.620.670.75
BRO0.121.000.060.080.070.230.050.100.030.01-0.07-0.160.100.17-0.120.07
PVLA0.230.061.000.070.140.100.300.110.150.150.100.040.100.180.150.48
VRNA0.180.080.071.000.050.170.260.100.110.130.260.200.120.210.120.34
TTAN0.320.070.140.051.000.310.110.170.250.240.160.170.360.190.210.43
QLYS0.360.230.100.170.311.000.200.180.270.160.160.170.310.290.150.40
ZYME0.350.050.300.260.110.201.000.180.240.340.160.180.150.210.250.52
MRCY0.470.100.110.100.170.180.181.000.300.280.310.280.230.290.280.51
LCID0.440.030.150.110.250.270.240.301.000.260.240.350.240.400.250.59
NTRA0.440.010.150.130.240.160.340.280.261.000.340.280.310.310.370.55
VST0.45-0.070.100.260.160.160.160.310.240.341.000.370.320.310.510.57
TSEM0.51-0.160.040.200.170.170.180.280.350.280.371.000.310.330.490.56
MSFT0.620.100.100.120.360.310.150.230.240.310.320.311.000.380.550.49
JPM0.620.170.180.210.190.290.210.290.400.310.310.330.381.000.350.53
NVDA0.67-0.120.150.120.210.150.250.280.250.370.510.490.550.351.000.59
Portfolio0.750.070.480.340.430.400.520.510.590.550.570.560.490.530.591.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Dec 17, 2024