Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | Financial Services | 7.14% |
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Financial Services | 7.14% |
LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | 7.14% |
MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | Industrials | 7.14% |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | Technology | 7.14% |
NTRA Natera, Inc. | Healthcare | 7.14% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Technology | 7.14% |
PVLA Palvella Therapeutics, Inc | Healthcare | 7.14% |
QLYS Qualys, Inc. | Technology | 7.14% |
TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | Technology | 7.14% |
TTAN ServiceTitan, Inc | Technology | 7.14% |
VRNA Verona Pharma plc | Healthcare | 7.14% |
VST Vistra Corp. | Utilities | 7.14% |
ZYME Zymeworks Inc. | Healthcare | 7.14% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Dec 16, 2024, corresponding to the inception date of PVLA
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -3.43% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 16.08% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights | 1.22% | -1.50% | -5.39% | 2.48% | 51.88% | — | — | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.93% | -1.47% | -4.88% | -6.08% | 60.69% | 85.17% | 66.71% | 70.07% |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | 1.11% | -7.54% | -22.60% | -27.29% | -1.52% | 10.00% | 9.94% | 22.58% |
ZYME Zymeworks Inc. | -0.54% | 5.52% | -2.01% | 52.66% | 116.44% | 40.16% | -3.89% | — |
NTRA Natera, Inc. | 2.35% | 0.45% | -9.21% | 29.82% | 45.24% | 56.49% | 15.11% | 35.97% |
MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | -0.71% | -17.01% | 1.66% | -10.10% | 64.49% | 13.48% | 0.49% | 13.85% |
TTAN ServiceTitan, Inc | 0.80% | -16.96% | -40.91% | -39.34% | -35.87% | — | — | — |
PVLA Palvella Therapeutics, Inc | -3.43% | -9.22% | 15.01% | 90.38% | 410.30% | — | — | — |
TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | 5.74% | 57.57% | 68.46% | 159.61% | 429.73% | 66.65% | 46.89% | 32.28% |
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | -0.26% | -1.89% | -8.16% | -3.31% | 22.30% | 34.44% | 16.83% | 20.51% |
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | 2.41% | -8.61% | -17.06% | -29.12% | -46.52% | 5.28% | 7.96% | 15.06% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Dec 17, 2024, Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights's average daily return is +0.16%, while the average monthly return is +2.88%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 2.0 years.
Historically, 71% of months were positive and 29% were negative. The best month was Aug 2025 with a return of +9.2%, while the worst month was Jan 2026 at -3.3%. The longest winning streak lasted 9 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.
On a daily basis, Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +9.5%, while the worst single day was Apr 3, 2025 at -6.0%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.28% | -1.15% | -2.94% | 1.95% | -5.39% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 3.78% | 0.62% | -0.37% | 4.49% | 5.80% | 7.63% | 6.24% | 9.18% | 7.67% | 2.27% | 6.77% | 0.27% | 69.28% |
| 2024 | -0.03% | -0.03% |
Benchmark Metrics
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights has an annualized alpha of 36.41%, beta of 1.14, and R² of 0.63 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since December 17, 2024.
- This portfolio captured 207.28% of S&P 500 Index gains and tended to rise during its downturns (downside capture of -4.95%) — a profile typical of hedging or uncorrelated assets.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 36.41% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- With beta of 1.14 and R² of 0.63, this portfolio moves broadly in line with S&P 500 Index — much of its variation is explained by market exposure rather than independent behavior.
- Alpha
- 36.41%
- Beta
- 1.14
- R²
- 0.63
- Upside Capture
- 207.28%
- Downside Capture
- -4.95%
Expense Ratio
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights has an expense ratio of 0.00%, meaning no management fees are charged. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights ranks 88 for risk / return — in the top 88% of portfolios on our site. This means strong returns relative to risk — exactly what professional investors look for. Well-suited for investors who want to maximize return per unit of risk.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 2.07 | 0.88 | +1.19 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.85 | 1.37 | +1.49 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.37 | 1.21 | +0.16 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 4.12 | 1.39 | +2.73 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 12.89 | 6.43 | +6.45 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 81 | 1.47 | 2.17 | 1.27 | 3.02 | 7.54 |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | 35 | -0.06 | 0.11 | 1.01 | -0.05 | -0.12 |
ZYME Zymeworks Inc. | 91 | 2.10 | 3.04 | 1.37 | 5.87 | 13.34 |
NTRA Natera, Inc. | 71 | 1.10 | 1.68 | 1.21 | 1.70 | 4.53 |
MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | 76 | 1.21 | 1.81 | 1.26 | 2.20 | 6.38 |
TTAN ServiceTitan, Inc | 14 | -0.71 | -0.89 | 0.90 | -0.63 | -1.28 |
PVLA Palvella Therapeutics, Inc | 97 | 4.78 | 4.11 | 1.48 | 11.03 | 26.80 |
TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | 99 | 6.85 | 5.19 | 1.71 | 17.67 | 64.52 |
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 67 | 0.89 | 1.28 | 1.18 | 1.51 | 4.05 |
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | 2 | -1.65 | -2.39 | 0.68 | -0.96 | -1.58 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights provided a 0.32% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 0.32% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.43% | 0.57% | 0.45% | 0.53% | 0.49% | 0.41% | 0.37% | 1.50% | 0.53% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.46% | 0.29% | 0.45% | 1.20% |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | 0.93% | 0.70% | 0.73% | 0.74% | 1.06% | 0.68% | 0.94% | 1.20% | 1.69% | 1.86% | 2.37% | 2.33% |
ZYME Zymeworks Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
NTRA Natera, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TTAN ServiceTitan, Inc | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
PVLA Palvella Therapeutics, Inc | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 1.97% | 1.72% | 1.92% | 2.38% | 2.98% | 2.34% | 2.83% | 2.37% | 2.54% | 1.91% | 2.13% | 2.54% |
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | 0.96% | 0.77% | 0.53% | 0.67% | 0.74% | 0.54% | 0.73% | 0.82% | 1.11% | 1.08% | 1.12% | 1.41% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights was 18.00%, occurring on Apr 8, 2025. Recovery took 24 trading sessions.
The current Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights drawdown is 8.93%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -18% | Feb 19, 2025 | 35 | Apr 8, 2025 | 24 | May 13, 2025 | 59 |
| -13.35% | Dec 23, 2025 | 66 | Mar 30, 2026 | — | — | — |
| -5.74% | Jan 24, 2025 | 2 | Jan 27, 2025 | 7 | Feb 5, 2025 | 9 |
| -5.03% | Jul 24, 2025 | 7 | Aug 1, 2025 | 8 | Aug 13, 2025 | 15 |
| -4.79% | Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | Dec 18, 2024 | 3 | Dec 23, 2024 | 5 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 14 assets, with an effective number of assets of 14.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests that the portfolio's investments are spread across a variety of assets, indicating a well-diversified allocation. However, true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | BRO | PVLA | VRNA | TTAN | QLYS | ZYME | MRCY | LCID | NTRA | VST | TSEM | MSFT | JPM | NVDA | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.12 | 0.23 | 0.18 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.51 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| BRO | 0.12 | 1.00 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.23 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.01 | -0.07 | -0.16 | 0.10 | 0.17 | -0.12 | 0.07 |
| PVLA | 0.23 | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.48 |
| VRNA | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.26 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 0.34 |
| TTAN | 0.32 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.36 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.43 |
| QLYS | 0.36 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| ZYME | 0.35 | 0.05 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 0.52 |
| MRCY | 0.47 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.51 |
| LCID | 0.44 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.35 | 0.24 | 0.40 | 0.25 | 0.59 |
| NTRA | 0.44 | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.55 |
| VST | 0.45 | -0.07 | 0.10 | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| TSEM | 0.51 | -0.16 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| MSFT | 0.62 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| JPM | 0.62 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.53 |
| NVDA | 0.67 | -0.12 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 0.15 | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.25 | 0.37 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.55 | 0.35 | 1.00 | 0.59 |
| Portfolio | 0.75 | 0.07 | 0.48 | 0.34 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.59 | 1.00 |