Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Technology | 7.14% |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | Technology | 7.14% |
ZYME Zymeworks Inc. | Healthcare | 7.14% |
NTRA Natera, Inc. | Healthcare | 7.14% |
MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | Industrials | 7.14% |
TTAN ServiceTitan, Inc | Technology | 7.14% |
PVLA Palvella Therapeutics, Inc | Healthcare | 7.14% |
TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | Technology | 7.14% |
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | Financial Services | 7.14% |
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | Financial Services | 7.14% |
QLYS Qualys, Inc. | Technology | 7.14% |
LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | 7.14% |
VST Vistra Corp. | Utilities | 7.14% |
VRNA Verona Pharma plc | Healthcare | 7.14% |
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Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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Returns By Period
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | -1.44% | -1.45% | 7.60% | 6.59% | 22.24% | 19.20% | 11.54% | 13.71% |
Portfolio Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights | -0.76% | 2.13% | 2.00% | 0.26% | 42.94% | — | — | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | 3.71% | 4.46% | -23.82% | -24.07% | -45.06% | -2.44% | 3.28% | 13.98% |
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 0.80% | 9.06% | 4.70% | 3.51% | 22.41% | 37.10% | 19.98% | 22.02% |
LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | 0.58% | -11.13% | -50.90% | -55.37% | -75.97% | -54.39% | -53.87% | — |
MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | -0.80% | 12.50% | 51.86% | 47.69% | 113.91% | 47.05% | 10.77% | 16.46% |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | 1.80% | -10.66% | -22.33% | -22.85% | -22.44% | 4.54% | 7.88% | 23.85% |
NTRA Natera, Inc. | 2.60% | 15.54% | 2.48% | -0.27% | 37.79% | 65.95% | 14.42% | 33.08% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | -4.13% | -6.99% | 7.39% | 5.85% | 38.94% | 68.08% | 59.90% | 67.94% |
PVLA Palvella Therapeutics, Inc | -0.13% | 4.11% | 13.38% | 18.36% | 426.53% | — | — | — |
QLYS Qualys, Inc. | 3.52% | 9.73% | -15.48% | -19.23% | -19.98% | -3.38% | 2.00% | 14.09% |
TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | -10.79% | -0.28% | 140.72% | 133.42% | 604.69% | 94.28% | 57.62% | 37.14% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Dec 16, 2024, Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights's average daily return is +0.16%, while the average monthly return is +3.11%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 1.9 years.
Historically, 74% of months were positive and 26% were negative. The best month was Aug 2025 with a return of +9.2%, while the worst month was Jan 2026 at -3.3%. The longest winning streak lasted 9 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.
On a daily basis, Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +9.5%, while the worst single day was Apr 3, 2025 at -6.0%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.28% | -1.15% | -2.94% | 2.90% | 7.82% | -0.94% | 2.00% | ||||||
| 2025 | 3.78% | 0.62% | -0.37% | 4.49% | 5.80% | 7.63% | 6.24% | 9.18% | 7.67% | 2.27% | 6.77% | 0.27% | 69.28% |
| 2024 | 2.31% | 2.31% |
Benchmark Metrics
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights has an annualized alpha of 27.75%, beta of 1.13, and R2 of 0.61 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since December 16, 2024.
- This portfolio captured 151.11% of S&P 500 Index gains and tended to rise during its downturns (downside capture of -12.45%) - a profile typical of hedging or uncorrelated assets.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 27.75% versus S&P 500 Index - delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- With beta of 1.13 and R2 of 0.61, this portfolio moves broadly in line with S&P 500 Index - much of its variation is explained by market exposure rather than independent behavior.
- Alpha
- 27.75%
- Beta
- 1.13
- R²
- 0.61
- Upside Capture
- 151.11%
- Downside Capture
- -12.45%
Expense Ratio
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights has an expense ratio of 0.00%, meaning no management fees are charged. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights ranks 45 for risk / return — on par with similar Portfolios. You're getting a typical balance of risk and reward. Not a standout, but not a red flag either — a reasonable choice if other factors align with your goals.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.95 | 1.78 | +0.17 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.73 | 2.44 | +0.30 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.32 | 1.32 | 0.00 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 3.23 | 2.46 | +0.77 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 9.16 | 10.92 | -1.76 |
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | 4 | -1.58 | -2.34 | 0.70 | -0.89 | -1.46 |
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 68 | 1.02 | 1.45 | 1.19 | 1.46 | 3.43 |
LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | 6 | -0.98 | -2.19 | 0.77 | -0.90 | -1.31 |
MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | 87 | 2.01 | 2.62 | 1.37 | 3.56 | 8.87 |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | 12 | -0.87 | -1.10 | 0.86 | -0.66 | -1.32 |
NTRA Natera, Inc. | 66 | 0.88 | 1.37 | 1.17 | 1.35 | 2.80 |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 72 | 1.10 | 1.65 | 1.20 | 1.94 | 4.51 |
PVLA Palvella Therapeutics, Inc | 97 | 5.32 | 4.47 | 1.54 | 13.82 | 31.14 |
QLYS Qualys, Inc. | 25 | -0.44 | -0.39 | 0.95 | -0.40 | -0.81 |
TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | 99 | 8.60 | 5.74 | 1.75 | 24.37 | 84.04 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights provided a 0.32% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 0.32% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.43% | 0.57% | 0.45% | 0.53% | 0.49% | 0.41% | 0.37% | 1.50% | 0.53% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
BRO Brown & Brown, Inc. | 1.07% | 0.77% | 0.53% | 0.67% | 0.74% | 0.54% | 0.73% | 0.82% | 1.11% | 1.08% | 1.12% | 1.41% |
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 1.77% | 1.72% | 1.92% | 2.38% | 2.98% | 2.34% | 2.83% | 2.37% | 2.54% | 1.91% | 2.13% | 2.54% |
LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
MRCY Mercury Systems, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
MSFT Microsoft Corporation | 0.95% | 0.70% | 0.73% | 0.74% | 1.06% | 0.68% | 0.94% | 1.20% | 1.69% | 1.86% | 2.37% | 2.33% |
NTRA Natera, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.46% | 0.29% | 0.45% | 1.20% |
PVLA Palvella Therapeutics, Inc | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
QLYS Qualys, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights was 18.00%, occurring on Apr 8, 2025. Recovery took 24 trading sessions.
The current Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights drawdown is 1.55%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 selloff2025 | -18.00%Apr 2025 | 1mo 18d | 1mo 5d | 2mo 23dFeb 2025 - May 2025 |
2026 correction2026 | -13.35%Mar 2026 | 3mo 7d | 2mo | 5mo 7dDec 2025 - May 2026 |
2026 pullback2026 | -6.48%Jun 2026 | 8d | — | 22d 5hJun 2026 - now |
2025 pullback2025 | -5.74%Jan 2025 | 3d | 9d | 12dJan 2025 - Feb 2025 |
2025 pullback2025 | -5.03%Aug 2025 | 8d | 12d | 20dJul 2025 - Aug 2025 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 14 assets, with an effective number of assets of 14.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is spread almost evenly across your holdings, indicating a well-balanced allocation. Note that true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 2.22 | 1.99 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.99, placing it in the top 5% across portfolios — assets in this portfolio move largely independently, providing strong diversification benefit.
Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.71 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 16, 2024 | 0.74 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. NVDA has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.67, while BRO has the lowest at 0.05.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights is missing
See which holdings overlap, where Guessing Portfolio Equal Weights is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
Analyze Diversification