Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds, Long-Term Bond | 40% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Blend Equities | 30% |
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 15% |
DBC Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund | Commodities | 7.50% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | Gold, Precious Metals | 7.50% |
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Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Ray Dailio All Weather, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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Returns By Period
As of Jun 13, 2026, the Ray Dailio All Weather returned 5.29% Year-To-Date and 6.10% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.50% | -0.93% | 8.56% | 8.85% | 24.33% | 19.37% | 11.84% | 13.61% |
Portfolio Ray Dailio All Weather | 0.01% | -0.89% | 5.29% | 5.52% | 14.25% | 9.53% | 3.43% | 6.10% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
DBC Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund | -1.04% | -8.35% | 27.68% | 28.76% | 30.29% | 12.92% | 11.29% | 8.27% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.06% | -9.52% | -2.47% | -2.25% | 22.21% | 28.89% | 17.08% | 12.15% |
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.12% | 0.10% | -0.30% | -0.00% | 3.16% | 3.77% | 0.21% | 1.24% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.24% | 1.40% | 0.27% | 0.45% | 3.88% | -1.38% | -6.53% | -1.75% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 0.57% | -0.28% | 9.62% | 9.69% | 26.27% | 20.60% | 12.20% | 15.02% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jan 11, 2007, Ray Dailio All Weather's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.57%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 10.2 years.
Historically, 67% of months were positive and 33% were negative. The best month was Dec 2008 with a return of +7.9%, while the worst month was Oct 2008 at -8.7%. The longest winning streak lasted 11 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 6 months.
On a daily basis, Ray Dailio All Weather closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Nov 10, 2022 with a return of +3.8%, while the worst single day was Mar 18, 2020 at -4.5%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.07% | 2.81% | -3.01% | 3.27% | 1.37% | -1.18% | 5.29% | ||||||
| 2025 | 1.90% | 2.08% | -1.21% | -0.80% | 0.58% | 3.17% | 0.35% | 1.23% | 3.49% | 1.67% | 0.77% | -0.89% | 12.91% |
| 2024 | -0.52% | 0.44% | 2.38% | -3.79% | 2.85% | 1.75% | 2.53% | 1.67% | 2.02% | -2.29% | 2.51% | -3.53% | 5.84% |
| 2023 | 5.94% | -3.74% | 3.78% | 0.56% | -1.79% | 2.03% | 0.92% | -1.94% | -4.94% | -2.65% | 7.13% | 5.32% | 10.17% |
| 2022 | -3.13% | -0.43% | -0.73% | -6.54% | -0.71% | -3.75% | 3.69% | -3.69% | -7.30% | 0.21% | 5.43% | -2.96% | -18.85% |
| 2021 | -1.59% | -1.12% | -1.11% | 3.44% | 1.08% | 2.15% | 2.44% | 0.54% | -2.50% | 3.40% | -0.04% | 0.99% | 7.76% |
Benchmark Metrics
Ray Dailio All Weather has an annualized alpha of 4.84%, beta of 0.21, and R2 of 0.26 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since January 11, 2007.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (36.38%) than losses (27.61%) - typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- Beta of 0.21 may look defensive, but with R2 of 0.26 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index - low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R2 of 0.26 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index - capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 4.84%
- Beta
- 0.21
- R²
- 0.26
- Upside Capture
- 36.38%
- Downside Capture
- 27.61%
Expense Ratio
Ray Dailio All Weather has an expense ratio of 0.19%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Ray Dailio All Weather ranks 56 for risk / return — on par with similar Portfolios. You're getting a typical balance of risk and reward. Not a standout, but not a red flag either — a reasonable choice if other factors align with your goals.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for Ray Dailio All Weather and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.99 | 1.86 | +0.13 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.77 | 2.53 | +0.24 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.37 | 1.34 | +0.03 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 3.05 | 2.53 | +0.52 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 12.34 | 11.37 | +0.97 |
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DBC Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund | 62 | 1.82 | 2.42 | 1.32 | 3.48 | 9.64 |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 26 | 0.87 | 1.24 | 1.18 | 0.98 | 2.81 |
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 29 | 1.00 | 1.52 | 1.17 | 1.19 | 3.35 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 13 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 1.06 | 0.38 | 0.92 |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 67 | 1.97 | 2.67 | 1.35 | 2.79 | 12.52 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Ray Dailio All Weather provided a 2.88% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.88% | 2.88% | 2.97% | 2.51% | 1.82% | 1.07% | 1.19% | 1.86% | 2.05% | 1.71% | 1.82% | 1.85% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
DBC Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund | 2.61% | 3.33% | 5.22% | 4.94% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.59% | 1.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
IEI iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.64% | 3.48% | 3.18% | 2.36% | 1.37% | 0.73% | 1.12% | 2.01% | 1.95% | 1.51% | 1.33% | 1.39% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.56% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.03% | 1.12% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.66% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Ray Dailio All Weather. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Ray Dailio All Weather was 23.43%, occurring on Oct 20, 2022. Recovery took 693 trading sessions.
The current Ray Dailio All Weather drawdown is 1.49%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bear market2022 | -23.43%Oct 2022 | 11mo 14d | 2y 9mo | 3y 8moNov 2021 - Jul 2025 |
Financial crisis2007–2009 | -15.27%Nov 2008 | 5mo 25d | 10mo 29d | 1y 4moMay 2008 - Oct 2009 |
COVID crash2020 | -13.69%Mar 2020 | 9d | 2mo 3d | 2mo 12dMar 2020 - May 2020 |
2016 pullback2016 | -8.00%Jan 2016 | 11mo 12d | 4mo 1d | 1y 3moFeb 2015 - May 2016 |
2013 pullback2013 | -6.86%Jun 2013 | 1mo 23d | 8mo 5d | 9mo 28dMay 2013 - Feb 2014 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 5 assets, with an effective number of assets of 3.52, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is well-distributed across most of your holdings, with only mild concentration in a few names. True diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.67 | 1.54 | 1.56 | 1.70 | 1.90 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.90, placing it in the top 5% across portfolios — assets in this portfolio move largely independently, providing strong diversification benefit.
Ray Dailio All Weather correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.67 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.62 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.58 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.53 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 11, 2007 | 0.46 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. VTI has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.99, while TLT has the lowest at -0.26.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what Ray Dailio All Weather is missing
See which holdings overlap, where Ray Dailio All Weather is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
Analyze Diversification