Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 Index | 1% | |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 95% | |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | Gold, Precious Metals | 1% |
MSTR MicroStrategy Incorporated | Technology | 1% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Technology | 1% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | Large Cap Growth Equities | 1% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Watch, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is never rebalanced.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Jul 24, 2012, corresponding to the inception date of BTC-USD
Returns By Period
As of Apr 8, 2026, the Watch returned -19.00% Year-To-Date and 66.85% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 2.51% | -0.19% | -0.92% | 0.43% | 36.13% | 18.22% | 10.44% | 12.72% |
Portfolio Watch | -1.45% | 3.55% | -19.00% | -42.53% | -7.03% | 35.75% | 4.07% | 66.85% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 2.97% | -0.15% | -1.21% | -0.62% | 46.38% | 24.71% | 13.13% | 19.58% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -1.46% | 3.55% | -19.01% | -42.55% | -7.07% | 35.73% | 4.05% | 66.87% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 2.23% | -0.31% | -2.36% | -3.71% | 89.12% | 88.90% | 66.19% | 70.58% |
MSTR MicroStrategy Incorporated | 3.70% | -7.66% | -15.56% | -61.22% | -46.08% | 64.14% | 12.53% | 21.78% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.63% | -8.04% | 9.64% | 16.72% | 57.90% | 32.57% | 21.62% | 13.88% |
^GSPC S&P 500 Index | 2.51% | -0.19% | -0.92% | 0.43% | 36.13% | 18.22% | 10.44% | 12.72% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jul 25, 2012, Watch's average daily return is +0.26%, while the average monthly return is +9.83%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 0.6 years.
Historically, 57% of months were positive and 43% were negative. The best month was Nov 2013 with a return of +469.9%, while the worst month was Dec 2013 at -38.7%. The longest winning streak lasted 7 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 6 months.
On a daily basis, Watch closed higher 53% of trading days. The best single day was Nov 18, 2013 with a return of +48.6%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -38.8%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.11% | -14.85% | 1.87% | 3.87% | -19.00% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 9.69% | -17.68% | -2.10% | 14.11% | 11.11% | 2.42% | 8.01% | -6.49% | 5.38% | -3.95% | -17.51% | -3.17% | -6.25% |
| 2024 | 0.62% | 43.78% | 16.52% | -14.96% | 11.31% | -7.11% | 3.09% | -8.73% | 7.34% | 10.89% | 37.40% | -3.23% | 120.78% |
| 2023 | 39.91% | 0.08% | 23.02% | 2.71% | -6.91% | 11.91% | -4.05% | -11.27% | 3.96% | 28.52% | 8.88% | 12.07% | 155.84% |
| 2022 | -16.70% | 12.21% | 5.41% | -17.32% | -15.56% | -37.12% | 16.62% | -13.98% | -3.11% | 5.48% | -16.21% | -3.71% | -64.23% |
| 2021 | 14.31% | 36.49% | 29.99% | -1.70% | -35.50% | -5.95% | 18.35% | 13.54% | -6.98% | 39.97% | -7.10% | -18.91% | 59.41% |
Benchmark Metrics
Watch has an annualized alpha of 98.67%, beta of 0.70, and R² of 0.03 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since July 25, 2012.
- This portfolio captured 360.05% of S&P 500 Index gains but only 93.61% of its losses — a favorable profile for investors.
- Beta of 0.70 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.03 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R² of 0.03 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 98.67%
- Beta
- 0.70
- R²
- 0.03
- Upside Capture
- 360.05%
- Downside Capture
- 93.61%
Expense Ratio
Watch has an expense ratio of 0.01%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Watch ranks 1 for risk / return — in the bottom 1% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.16 | 2.19 | -2.35 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 0.08 | 3.49 | -3.42 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.48 | -0.47 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -1.05 | 3.70 | -4.75 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.82 | 16.45 | -18.27 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 74 | 2.21 | 3.38 | 1.46 | 3.69 | 13.85 |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 49 | -0.16 | 0.07 | 1.01 | -1.05 | -1.82 |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 86 | 2.26 | 3.06 | 1.38 | 4.61 | 11.51 |
MSTR MicroStrategy Incorporated | 12 | -0.64 | -0.76 | 0.92 | -0.74 | -1.25 |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 57 | 2.11 | 2.52 | 1.38 | 2.88 | 10.09 |
^GSPC S&P 500 Index | 87 | 2.19 | 3.49 | 1.48 | 3.70 | 16.45 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Watch provided a 0.00% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.46% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.46% | 0.29% | 0.45% | 1.20% |
MSTR MicroStrategy Incorporated | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
^GSPC S&P 500 Index | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Watch. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Watch was 85.25%, occurring on Jan 14, 2015. Recovery took 778 trading sessions.
The current Watch drawdown is 42.47%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -85.25% | Dec 5, 2013 | 406 | Jan 14, 2015 | 778 | Mar 2, 2017 | 1184 |
| -83.79% | Dec 17, 2017 | 364 | Dec 15, 2018 | 716 | Nov 30, 2020 | 1080 |
| -76.67% | Nov 9, 2021 | 378 | Nov 21, 2022 | 469 | Mar 4, 2024 | 847 |
| -70.14% | Apr 10, 2013 | 7 | Apr 16, 2013 | 201 | Nov 4, 2013 | 208 |
| -53.14% | Apr 14, 2021 | 98 | Jul 20, 2021 | 91 | Oct 19, 2021 | 189 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 6 assets, with an effective number of assets of 1.11, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | GLD | BTC-USD | MSTR | NVDA | ^GSPC | QQQ | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.49 | 0.61 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.15 |
| GLD | 0.02 | 1.00 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| BTC-USD | 0.15 | 0.07 | 1.00 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1.00 |
| MSTR | 0.49 | 0.02 | 0.26 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.26 |
| NVDA | 0.61 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.35 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.65 | 0.11 |
| ^GSPC | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 0.13 |
| QQQ | 0.90 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.46 | 0.65 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.13 |
| Portfolio | 0.15 | 0.07 | 1.00 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1.00 |