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Rick's 4-3-2-1
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


IAU 20.00%UUP 40.00%VTI 30.00%QQQ 10.00%CommodityCommodityCurrencyCurrencyEquityEquity

S&P 500 Index

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Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Rick's 4-3-2-1, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.


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Returns By Period

As of Jun 6, 2026, the Rick's 4-3-2-1 returned 6.17% Year-To-Date and 11.13% of annualized return in the last 10 years.


Position1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
-2.64%-0.21%7.86%7.47%23.05%19.90%11.79%13.33%
Portfolio
Rick's 4-3-2-1
-1.89%-0.83%6.17%6.26%19.61%16.92%12.02%11.13%
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
-3.63%-8.61%0.06%2.63%30.01%29.73%17.65%12.97%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ ETF
-4.80%-0.87%14.92%13.01%33.69%26.46%16.70%21.27%
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
0.65%2.49%3.66%3.19%5.60%4.04%6.04%3.28%
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
-2.68%0.14%8.72%8.29%24.59%21.08%12.19%14.71%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Mar 2, 2007, Rick's 4-3-2-1's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.68%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 8.5 years.

Historically, 67% of months were positive and 33% were negative. The best month was Apr 2020 with a return of +6.7%, while the worst month was Oct 2008 at -6.6%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 4 months.

On a daily basis, Rick's 4-3-2-1 closed higher 56% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +4.8%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -5.7%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20262.79%1.83%-3.41%3.86%2.97%-1.81%6.17%
20252.61%-0.60%-1.62%-0.56%2.86%1.53%2.33%1.02%4.16%2.88%1.00%0.04%16.63%
20241.34%2.57%3.19%-0.26%1.85%2.16%0.97%0.53%1.87%1.99%2.77%0.06%20.71%
20233.87%-0.62%2.62%0.37%1.88%1.93%1.72%-0.07%-1.77%0.88%3.32%1.88%17.08%
2022-2.65%0.12%2.28%-2.54%-1.43%-2.24%4.02%-1.15%-3.01%2.30%1.97%-2.96%-5.49%
2021-0.42%-0.13%2.13%1.99%1.01%0.81%1.21%1.46%-1.93%2.99%0.30%1.83%11.75%

Benchmark Metrics

Rick's 4-3-2-1 has an annualized alpha of 4.58%, beta of 0.36, and R2 of 0.77 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since March 02, 2007.

  • This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (41.59%) than losses (27.71%) - typical of diversified or defensive assets.
  • This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 4.58% versus S&P 500 Index - delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
  • Beta of 0.36 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index - a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.

Alpha
4.58%
Beta
0.36
0.77
Upside Capture
41.59%
Downside Capture
27.71%

Expense Ratio

Rick's 4-3-2-1 has an expense ratio of 0.38%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Rick's 4-3-2-1 ranks 63 for risk / return — better than 63% of Portfolios on our site. You're getting solid returns for the risk taken. A good sign, especially for investors who want growth without excessive volatility.


Rick's 4-3-2-1 Risk / Return Rank: 6363
Overall Rank
Rick's 4-3-2-1 Sharpe Ratio Rank: 5959
Sharpe Ratio Rank
Rick's 4-3-2-1 Sortino Ratio Rank: 5151
Sortino Ratio Rank
Rick's 4-3-2-1 Omega Ratio Rank: 8080
Omega Ratio Rank
Rick's 4-3-2-1 Calmar Ratio Rank: 6161
Calmar Ratio Rank
Rick's 4-3-2-1 Martin Ratio Rank: 6262
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics

The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for Rick's 4-3-2-1 and compares them with S&P 500 Index.


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility

2.49

2.01

+0.48

Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk

3.27

2.71

+0.56

Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability

1.52

1.36

+0.16

Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown

3.50

2.69

+0.81

Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown

14.56

12.34

+2.22


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

PositionRisk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
311.071.451.221.423.60
QQQ
Invesco QQQ ETF
682.112.721.372.9411.22
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
321.011.461.181.694.49
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
702.102.831.382.9313.45

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Rick's 4-3-2-1 Sharpe ratios as of Jun 6, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: 2.49
  • 5-Year: 1.53
  • 10-Year: 1.39
  • All Time: 1.01

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 1.64 to 2.53, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This indicates that its risk-adjusted performance is in line with the majority of portfolios, suggesting a balanced approach to risk and return—likely suitable for a wide range of investors.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Rick's 4-3-2-1 compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

Rick's 4-3-2-1 provided a 1.67% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


PositionTTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio1.67%1.75%2.23%3.07%0.93%0.41%0.48%1.42%1.14%0.63%0.68%0.69%
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
QQQ
Invesco QQQ ETF
0.40%0.45%0.56%0.62%0.80%0.43%0.55%0.74%0.91%0.84%1.06%0.99%
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
3.31%3.43%4.48%6.44%0.89%0.00%0.00%2.03%1.08%0.10%0.00%0.00%
VTI
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
1.04%1.12%1.27%1.44%1.66%1.21%1.42%1.78%2.04%1.71%1.92%1.98%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Rick's 4-3-2-1. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Rick's 4-3-2-1 was 18.67%, occurring on Nov 20, 2008. Recovery took 280 trading sessions.

The current Rick's 4-3-2-1 drawdown is 2.00%.


Related event

Drawdown

Fall

Recovery

Underwater

Financial crisis2007–2009
-18.67%Nov 2008
1y 20d1y 1mo
2y 2moNov 2007 - Jan 2010
COVID crash2020
-13.89%Mar 2020
24d2mo 24d
3mo 18dFeb 2020 - Jun 2020
2025 selloff2025
-9.17%Apr 2025
1mo 17d2mo 19d
4mo 6dFeb 2025 - Jun 2025
Bear market2022
-7.82%Jun 2022
2mo 18d10mo 1d
1y 14dMar 2022 - Apr 2023
2015 pullback2015
-7.65%Aug 2015
4mo 14d10mo 10d
1y 2moApr 2015 - Jun 2016

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 4 assets, with an effective number of assets of 3.33, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is well-distributed across most of your holdings, with only mild concentration in a few names. True diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.


Diversification Ratio
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
All Time
Diversification Ratio

1.70

1.69

1.77

1.67

1.76

The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.76, in line with the typical range across portfolios. There's room to improve by adding less correlated assets.

Rick's 4-3-2-1 correlation to the S&P 500 Index

Rick's 4-3-2-1 has a 0.75 correlation to S&P 500 Index over the trailing 12 months. This section compares each holding's correlation to the benchmark and to the portfolio.

Correlation
Correlation (1Y)
Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

0.75

Correlation (3Y)
Calculated over the trailing 3-year period

0.82

Correlation (5Y)
Calculated over the trailing 5-year period

0.86

Correlation (10Y)
Calculated over the trailing 10-year period

0.86

Correlation (All Time)
Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 2, 2007

0.85


Benchmark Correlations

Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. VTI has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.99, while UUP has the lowest at -0.20.

UUP
-0.20
IAU
0.06
QQQ
0.90
VTI
0.99

Portfolio Correlations

Correlation vs. Rick's 4-3-2-1. VTI has the highest portfolio correlation at 0.85, while UUP has the lowest at 0.01.

UUP
0.01
IAU
0.30
QQQ
0.82
VTI
0.85

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

IAUUUPQQQVTI
IAU1.00-0.450.050.07
UUP-0.451.00-0.17-0.20
QQQ0.05-0.171.000.89
VTI0.07-0.200.891.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Mar 2, 2007
Diversification Analysis

Find what Rick's 4-3-2-1 is missing

See which holdings overlap, where Rick's 4-3-2-1 is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.

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