Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | Currency | 40% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | Large Cap Blend Equities | 30% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | Gold, Precious Metals | 20% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | Nasdaq-100 | 10% |
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Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Rick's 4-3-2-1, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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Returns By Period
As of Jun 6, 2026, the Rick's 4-3-2-1 returned 6.17% Year-To-Date and 11.13% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | -2.64% | -0.21% | 7.86% | 7.47% | 23.05% | 19.90% | 11.79% | 13.33% |
Portfolio Rick's 4-3-2-1 | -1.89% | -0.83% | 6.17% | 6.26% | 19.61% | 16.92% | 12.02% | 11.13% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
IAU iShares Gold Trust | -3.63% | -8.61% | 0.06% | 2.63% | 30.01% | 29.73% | 17.65% | 12.97% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | -4.80% | -0.87% | 14.92% | 13.01% | 33.69% | 26.46% | 16.70% | 21.27% |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 0.65% | 2.49% | 3.66% | 3.19% | 5.60% | 4.04% | 6.04% | 3.28% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | -2.68% | 0.14% | 8.72% | 8.29% | 24.59% | 21.08% | 12.19% | 14.71% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Mar 2, 2007, Rick's 4-3-2-1's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.68%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 8.5 years.
Historically, 67% of months were positive and 33% were negative. The best month was Apr 2020 with a return of +6.7%, while the worst month was Oct 2008 at -6.6%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 4 months.
On a daily basis, Rick's 4-3-2-1 closed higher 56% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +4.8%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -5.7%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.79% | 1.83% | -3.41% | 3.86% | 2.97% | -1.81% | 6.17% | ||||||
| 2025 | 2.61% | -0.60% | -1.62% | -0.56% | 2.86% | 1.53% | 2.33% | 1.02% | 4.16% | 2.88% | 1.00% | 0.04% | 16.63% |
| 2024 | 1.34% | 2.57% | 3.19% | -0.26% | 1.85% | 2.16% | 0.97% | 0.53% | 1.87% | 1.99% | 2.77% | 0.06% | 20.71% |
| 2023 | 3.87% | -0.62% | 2.62% | 0.37% | 1.88% | 1.93% | 1.72% | -0.07% | -1.77% | 0.88% | 3.32% | 1.88% | 17.08% |
| 2022 | -2.65% | 0.12% | 2.28% | -2.54% | -1.43% | -2.24% | 4.02% | -1.15% | -3.01% | 2.30% | 1.97% | -2.96% | -5.49% |
| 2021 | -0.42% | -0.13% | 2.13% | 1.99% | 1.01% | 0.81% | 1.21% | 1.46% | -1.93% | 2.99% | 0.30% | 1.83% | 11.75% |
Benchmark Metrics
Rick's 4-3-2-1 has an annualized alpha of 4.58%, beta of 0.36, and R2 of 0.77 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since March 02, 2007.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (41.59%) than losses (27.71%) - typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 4.58% versus S&P 500 Index - delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- Beta of 0.36 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index - a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.
- Alpha
- 4.58%
- Beta
- 0.36
- R²
- 0.77
- Upside Capture
- 41.59%
- Downside Capture
- 27.71%
Expense Ratio
Rick's 4-3-2-1 has an expense ratio of 0.38%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Rick's 4-3-2-1 ranks 63 for risk / return — better than 63% of Portfolios on our site. You're getting solid returns for the risk taken. A good sign, especially for investors who want growth without excessive volatility.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for Rick's 4-3-2-1 and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 2.49 | 2.01 | +0.48 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 3.27 | 2.71 | +0.56 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.52 | 1.36 | +0.16 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 3.50 | 2.69 | +0.81 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 14.56 | 12.34 | +2.22 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 31 | 1.07 | 1.45 | 1.22 | 1.42 | 3.60 |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 68 | 2.11 | 2.72 | 1.37 | 2.94 | 11.22 |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 32 | 1.01 | 1.46 | 1.18 | 1.69 | 4.49 |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 70 | 2.10 | 2.83 | 1.38 | 2.93 | 13.45 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Rick's 4-3-2-1 provided a 1.67% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 1.67% | 1.75% | 2.23% | 3.07% | 0.93% | 0.41% | 0.48% | 1.42% | 1.14% | 0.63% | 0.68% | 0.69% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.40% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 3.31% | 3.43% | 4.48% | 6.44% | 0.89% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.03% | 1.08% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF | 1.04% | 1.12% | 1.27% | 1.44% | 1.66% | 1.21% | 1.42% | 1.78% | 2.04% | 1.71% | 1.92% | 1.98% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Rick's 4-3-2-1. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Rick's 4-3-2-1 was 18.67%, occurring on Nov 20, 2008. Recovery took 280 trading sessions.
The current Rick's 4-3-2-1 drawdown is 2.00%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Financial crisis2007–2009 | -18.67%Nov 2008 | 1y 20d | 1y 1mo | 2y 2moNov 2007 - Jan 2010 |
COVID crash2020 | -13.89%Mar 2020 | 24d | 2mo 24d | 3mo 18dFeb 2020 - Jun 2020 |
2025 selloff2025 | -9.17%Apr 2025 | 1mo 17d | 2mo 19d | 4mo 6dFeb 2025 - Jun 2025 |
Bear market2022 | -7.82%Jun 2022 | 2mo 18d | 10mo 1d | 1y 14dMar 2022 - Apr 2023 |
2015 pullback2015 | -7.65%Aug 2015 | 4mo 14d | 10mo 10d | 1y 2moApr 2015 - Jun 2016 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 4 assets, with an effective number of assets of 3.33, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is well-distributed across most of your holdings, with only mild concentration in a few names. True diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.70 | 1.69 | 1.77 | 1.67 | 1.76 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.76, in line with the typical range across portfolios. There's room to improve by adding less correlated assets.
Rick's 4-3-2-1 correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.75 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.82 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.86 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.86 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 2, 2007 | 0.85 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. VTI has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.99, while UUP has the lowest at -0.20.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what Rick's 4-3-2-1 is missing
See which holdings overlap, where Rick's 4-3-2-1 is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
Analyze Diversification