Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 10% | |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | Gold, Precious Metals | 18% |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | S&P 500, Dividend | 18% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | Large Cap Growth Equities | 18% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 18% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds, Long-Term Bond | 18% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 40+40+20+BTC, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Oct 10, 2013, corresponding to the inception date of NOBL
Returns By Period
As of Apr 2, 2026, the 40+40+20+BTC returned -1.11% Year-To-Date and 18.52% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -3.43% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 16.08% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio 40+40+20+BTC | -0.43% | -3.97% | -1.11% | -1.46% | 12.59% | 16.05% | 8.93% | 18.52% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.11% | -2.64% | -4.65% | -3.18% | 23.45% | 22.97% | 13.18% | 19.05% |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | -0.04% | -5.88% | 2.28% | 3.74% | 5.84% | 7.28% | 6.29% | 9.59% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.61% | -2.56% | 0.69% | -0.91% | -0.77% | -2.76% | -5.75% | -1.34% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.05% | -0.23% | 0.31% | 1.24% | 3.70% | 3.85% | 1.71% | 1.65% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | -1.94% | -8.32% | 8.34% | 21.05% | 49.18% | 32.68% | 21.72% | 14.14% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -1.99% | -2.31% | -23.70% | -44.66% | -19.07% | 33.89% | 3.18% | 66.03% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Oct 11, 2013, 40+40+20+BTC's average daily return is +0.05%, while the average monthly return is +1.64%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 3.6 years.
Historically, 62% of months were positive and 38% were negative. The best month was Nov 2013 with a return of +65.3%, while the worst month was Dec 2013 at -18.8%. The longest winning streak lasted 8 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 4 months.
On a daily basis, 40+40+20+BTC closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Nov 18, 2013 with a return of +13.8%, while the worst single day was Dec 6, 2013 at -10.6%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.49% | 1.67% | -5.17% | 0.07% | -1.11% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 3.26% | -0.60% | -0.12% | 1.84% | 2.64% | 2.29% | 1.09% | 1.08% | 4.14% | 1.17% | -0.22% | -0.44% | 17.22% |
| 2024 | -0.29% | 5.50% | 4.85% | -3.84% | 3.32% | 0.68% | 2.77% | 0.90% | 3.05% | 0.02% | 5.66% | -2.99% | 20.84% |
| 2023 | 9.03% | -2.40% | 7.37% | 1.01% | -1.22% | 3.35% | 0.76% | -2.47% | -3.95% | 2.27% | 6.42% | 5.34% | 27.53% |
| 2022 | -5.08% | 0.58% | 1.01% | -6.92% | -2.46% | -6.24% | 5.14% | -4.47% | -6.16% | 1.70% | 3.51% | -2.71% | -20.77% |
| 2021 | -0.12% | 2.56% | 5.26% | 2.80% | -1.76% | -0.17% | 3.85% | 2.51% | -4.05% | 7.32% | -0.58% | -0.76% | 17.56% |
Benchmark Metrics
40+40+20+BTC has an annualized alpha of 13.01%, beta of 0.38, and R² of 0.22 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since October 11, 2013.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (81.83%) than losses (43.04%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- Beta of 0.38 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.22 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R² of 0.22 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 13.01%
- Beta
- 0.38
- R²
- 0.22
- Upside Capture
- 81.83%
- Downside Capture
- 43.04%
Expense Ratio
40+40+20+BTC has an expense ratio of 0.19%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
40+40+20+BTC ranks 28 for risk / return — below 28% of portfolios on our site. The returns aren't fully compensating for the risk involved. This isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, but factor it into your decision — especially if you're risk-averse.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.13 | 0.88 | +0.25 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 1.68 | 1.37 | +0.31 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.20 | 1.21 | 0.00 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.61 | 1.39 | -0.78 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.90 | 6.43 | -4.54 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 59 | 1.04 | 1.62 | 1.23 | 1.93 | 7.00 |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | 21 | 0.39 | 0.66 | 1.08 | 0.55 | 1.91 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 10 | -0.07 | -0.01 | 1.00 | -0.09 | -0.19 |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 95 | 2.57 | 4.23 | 1.54 | 4.08 | 15.52 |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 80 | 1.78 | 2.21 | 1.33 | 2.58 | 9.32 |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 39 | -0.43 | -0.36 | 0.96 | -1.14 | -2.03 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
40+40+20+BTC provided a 1.95% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 1.95% | 1.95% | 1.95% | 1.64% | 1.21% | 0.73% | 0.92% | 1.26% | 1.37% | 1.08% | 1.17% | 1.11% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.48% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | 2.14% | 2.14% | 2.05% | 2.09% | 1.94% | 1.89% | 2.14% | 1.89% | 2.37% | 1.74% | 2.13% | 2.02% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.51% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.72% | 3.81% | 3.92% | 2.99% | 1.30% | 0.26% | 0.94% | 2.12% | 1.72% | 0.98% | 0.71% | 0.54% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 40+40+20+BTC. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the 40+40+20+BTC was 27.56%, occurring on Dec 18, 2013. Recovery took 908 trading sessions.
The current 40+40+20+BTC drawdown is 6.32%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -27.56% | Dec 5, 2013 | 14 | Dec 18, 2013 | 908 | Jun 13, 2016 | 922 |
| -26.87% | Nov 10, 2021 | 345 | Oct 20, 2022 | 495 | Feb 27, 2024 | 840 |
| -21.62% | Dec 17, 2017 | 374 | Dec 25, 2018 | 177 | Jun 20, 2019 | 551 |
| -16.11% | Feb 24, 2020 | 24 | Mar 18, 2020 | 50 | May 7, 2020 | 74 |
| -8.67% | Jan 29, 2026 | 60 | Mar 29, 2026 | — | — | — |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 6 assets, with an effective number of assets of 5.81, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets indicates a moderate level of diversification, where some assets may have a more significant influence on overall performance.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | IAU | BTC-USD | SHY | TLT | NOBL | QQQ | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.17 | -0.09 | -0.16 | 0.81 | 0.91 | 0.55 |
| IAU | 0.01 | 1.00 | 0.08 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.34 |
| BTC-USD | 0.17 | 0.08 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.76 |
| SHY | -0.09 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.58 | -0.04 | -0.06 | 0.19 |
| TLT | -0.16 | 0.27 | -0.00 | 0.58 | 1.00 | -0.11 | -0.09 | 0.22 |
| NOBL | 0.81 | 0.02 | 0.08 | -0.04 | -0.11 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.39 |
| QQQ | 0.91 | 0.01 | 0.14 | -0.06 | -0.09 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.47 |
| Portfolio | 0.55 | 0.34 | 0.76 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.39 | 0.47 | 1.00 |