Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds, Long-Term Bond | 18% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds, Short-Term Bond | 18% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | Gold, Precious Metals | 18% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | Nasdaq-100 | 18% |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | Dividend, S&P 500, Large Cap Value Equities | 18% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 10% |
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Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 40+40+20+BTC, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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Returns By Period
As of Jun 9, 2026, the 40+40+20+BTC returned 1.12% Year-To-Date and 18.13% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.30% | 0.09% | 8.18% | 8.17% | 23.42% | 19.88% | 11.91% | 13.45% |
Portfolio 40+40+20+BTC | 0.05% | -3.89% | 1.12% | 1.36% | 10.05% | 16.75% | 9.23% | 18.13% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -1.22% | -22.47% | -28.54% | -31.02% | -40.89% | 33.16% | 10.82% | 59.68% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 0.20% | -8.43% | 0.26% | 3.08% | 30.27% | 29.88% | 17.71% | 12.71% |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | -0.72% | 1.13% | 4.55% | 6.02% | 9.97% | 8.03% | 5.43% | 9.58% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 1.56% | 0.68% | 16.71% | 15.00% | 35.78% | 27.15% | 16.98% | 21.59% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.05% | -0.19% | 0.34% | 0.74% | 3.33% | 4.04% | 1.70% | 1.63% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.52% | -1.31% | -1.08% | -1.51% | 3.67% | -2.05% | -6.70% | -1.85% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Oct 10, 2013, 40+40+20+BTC's average daily return is +0.05%, while the average monthly return is +1.64%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 3.6 years.
Historically, 61% of months were positive and 39% were negative. The best month was Nov 2013 with a return of +65.5%, while the worst month was Dec 2013 at -18.8%. The longest winning streak lasted 8 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 4 months.
On a daily basis, 40+40+20+BTC closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Nov 18, 2013 with a return of +13.9%, while the worst single day was Dec 6, 2013 at -10.7%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.49% | 1.67% | -5.17% | 4.08% | 1.42% | -3.06% | 1.12% | ||||||
| 2025 | 3.26% | -0.60% | -0.12% | 1.84% | 2.64% | 2.29% | 1.09% | 1.08% | 4.14% | 1.17% | -0.22% | -0.44% | 17.22% |
| 2024 | -0.29% | 5.50% | 4.85% | -3.84% | 3.32% | 0.68% | 2.77% | 0.90% | 3.05% | 0.02% | 5.66% | -2.99% | 20.84% |
| 2023 | 9.03% | -2.40% | 7.37% | 1.01% | -1.22% | 3.35% | 0.76% | -2.47% | -3.95% | 2.27% | 6.42% | 5.34% | 27.53% |
| 2022 | -5.08% | 0.58% | 1.01% | -6.92% | -2.46% | -6.24% | 5.14% | -4.47% | -6.16% | 1.70% | 3.51% | -2.71% | -20.77% |
| 2021 | -0.12% | 2.56% | 5.26% | 2.80% | -1.76% | -0.17% | 3.85% | 2.51% | -4.05% | 7.32% | -0.58% | -0.76% | 17.56% |
Benchmark Metrics
40+40+20+BTC has an annualized alpha of 12.51%, beta of 0.39, and R2 of 0.22 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since October 10, 2013.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (79.01%) than losses (44.45%) - typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- Beta of 0.39 may look defensive, but with R2 of 0.22 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index - low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R2 of 0.22 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index - capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 12.51%
- Beta
- 0.39
- R²
- 0.22
- Upside Capture
- 79.01%
- Downside Capture
- 44.45%
Expense Ratio
40+40+20+BTC has an expense ratio of 0.19%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
40+40+20+BTC ranks 12 for risk / return — in the bottom 12% of Portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for 40+40+20+BTC and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.01 | 1.94 | -0.93 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 1.40 | 2.63 | -1.22 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.17 | 1.35 | -0.19 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 1.16 | 2.59 | -1.43 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 3.68 | 11.84 | -8.17 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 28 | -0.95 | -1.35 | 0.86 | -0.80 | -1.42 |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 33 | 1.14 | 1.52 | 1.23 | 1.52 | 3.80 |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | 25 | 0.88 | 1.36 | 1.15 | 1.10 | 2.83 |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 69 | 2.15 | 2.77 | 1.38 | 3.00 | 11.43 |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 86 | 2.51 | 4.11 | 1.51 | 3.76 | 15.12 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 15 | 0.38 | 0.62 | 1.07 | 0.49 | 1.19 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
40+40+20+BTC provided a 1.94% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 1.94% | 1.95% | 1.95% | 1.64% | 1.21% | 0.73% | 0.92% | 1.26% | 1.37% | 1.08% | 1.17% | 1.11% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | 2.10% | 2.14% | 2.05% | 2.09% | 1.94% | 1.89% | 2.14% | 1.89% | 2.37% | 1.74% | 2.13% | 2.02% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.39% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.69% | 3.81% | 3.92% | 2.99% | 1.30% | 0.26% | 0.94% | 2.12% | 1.72% | 0.98% | 0.71% | 0.54% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.63% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 40+40+20+BTC. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the 40+40+20+BTC was 27.59%, occurring on Dec 18, 2013. Recovery took 908 trading sessions.
The current 40+40+20+BTC drawdown is 4.69%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2013 bear market2013 | -27.59%Dec 2013 | 13d | 2y 5mo | 2y 6moDec 2013 - Jun 2016 |
Bear market2022 | -26.87%Oct 2022 | 11mo 14d | 1y 4mo | 2y 3moNov 2021 - Feb 2024 |
Rate-hike selloffLate 2018 | -21.62%Dec 2018 | 1y 8d | 5mo 27d | 1y 6moDec 2017 - Jun 2019 |
COVID crash2020 | -16.11%Mar 2020 | 23d | 1mo 20d | 2mo 13dFeb 2020 - May 2020 |
2026 pullback2026 | -8.67%Mar 2026 | 1mo 29d | — | 4mo 11dJan 2026 - now |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 6 assets, with an effective number of assets of 5.81, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is spread almost evenly across your holdings, indicating a well-balanced allocation. Note that true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.62 | 1.70 | 1.64 | 1.71 | 1.75 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.75, in line with the typical range across portfolios. There's room to improve by adding less correlated assets.
40+40+20+BTC correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.71 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.69 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.71 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.60 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Oct 10, 2013 | 0.55 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. QQQ has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.91, while TLT has the lowest at -0.15.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what 40+40+20+BTC is missing
See which holdings overlap, where 40+40+20+BTC is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
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