40+40+20+BTC
Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 10% | |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | Precious Metals, Gold | 18% |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | Large Cap Growth Equities, Dividend | 18% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ | Large Cap Blend Equities | 18% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 18% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 18% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 40+40+20+BTC, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced every 3 months.
The earliest data available for this chart is Oct 10, 2013, corresponding to the inception date of NOBL
Returns By Period
As of Apr 19, 2025, the 40+40+20+BTC returned 1.41% Year-To-Date and 18.23% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | -10.18% | -6.71% | -9.92% | 6.35% | 13.40% | 9.65% |
| 40+40+20+BTC | -9.38% | 0.21% | 22.22% | 31.29% | 57.80% | 49.12% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
QQQ Invesco QQQ | -13.00% | -7.20% | -9.91% | 7.76% | 16.60% | 16.03% |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | -2.42% | -4.16% | -9.50% | 1.77% | 11.60% | 8.97% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 1.27% | -3.72% | -4.78% | 2.28% | -9.98% | -1.21% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 1.93% | 0.61% | 2.21% | 6.08% | 1.08% | 1.39% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 26.50% | 9.04% | 21.92% | 38.75% | 14.06% | 10.56% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -9.61% | 0.34% | 23.53% | 32.28% | 65.16% | 80.21% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of 40+40+20+BTC, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9.36% | -17.04% | -2.18% | 2.10% | -9.38% | ||||||||
| 2024 | 0.73% | 41.08% | 15.91% | -14.51% | 10.95% | -6.69% | 3.01% | -8.23% | 7.14% | 10.27% | 35.81% | -3.10% | 114.26% |
| 2023 | 35.71% | -0.18% | 21.38% | 2.62% | -6.34% | 11.29% | -3.56% | -10.44% | 3.13% | 25.90% | 8.71% | 11.57% | 139.25% |
| 2022 | -16.22% | 11.28% | 5.23% | -16.66% | -14.78% | -35.41% | 16.72% | -13.08% | -3.61% | 5.23% | -13.98% | -3.73% | -61.64% |
| 2021 | 12.92% | 33.65% | 29.00% | -1.73% | -33.77% | -5.60% | 17.62% | 12.61% | -7.01% | 37.99% | -6.69% | -17.76% | 56.02% |
| 2020 | 23.86% | -7.07% | -21.05% | 28.27% | 8.08% | -2.24% | 20.38% | 3.25% | -6.84% | 22.32% | 37.12% | 42.72% | 241.42% |
| 2019 | -3.92% | 8.22% | 5.25% | 21.58% | 44.19% | 22.54% | -5.61% | -3.42% | -11.53% | 9.18% | -14.30% | -3.58% | 71.07% |
| 2018 | -24.51% | 1.13% | -28.44% | 26.08% | -15.68% | -11.82% | 17.27% | -7.39% | -4.77% | -4.59% | -28.43% | -5.66% | -65.88% |
| 2017 | 1.73% | 10.25% | -3.77% | 11.63% | 33.31% | 4.79% | 10.38% | 41.60% | -5.87% | 36.23% | 46.85% | 33.17% | 559.73% |
| 2016 | -3.60% | 5.91% | 1.04% | 1.76% | 4.67% | 9.47% | -0.26% | -2.76% | 1.66% | 2.31% | 0.49% | 10.16% | 34.32% |
| 2015 | -4.10% | 2.40% | -1.36% | -0.95% | -0.02% | 0.27% | 2.61% | -5.30% | -0.34% | 8.79% | 2.89% | 2.47% | 6.84% |
| 2014 | 4.16% | -11.76% | -5.74% | -0.04% | 11.39% | 2.22% | -3.35% | -3.77% | -6.32% | -1.64% | 4.37% | -3.09% | -14.53% |
Expense Ratio
40+40+20+BTC has an expense ratio of 0.20%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
With an overall rank of 81, 40+40+20+BTC is among the top 19% of portfolios on our website when it comes to balancing risk and reward. Below is a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QQQ Invesco QQQ | -0.05 | 0.12 | 1.02 | 0.16 | -0.22 |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | -0.16 | -0.12 | 0.98 | 0.20 | -0.51 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.67 | -0.85 | 0.90 | 0.07 | -1.05 |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 2.82 | 4.58 | 1.58 | 0.65 | 11.13 |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 3.54 | 4.65 | 1.62 | 2.86 | 18.66 |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 1.20 | 1.85 | 1.19 | 0.90 | 5.47 |
Dividends
Dividend yield
40+40+20+BTC provided a 2.00% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.00% | 1.95% | 1.64% | 1.21% | 0.73% | 0.92% | 1.26% | 1.37% | 1.08% | 1.17% | 1.11% | 1.09% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
QQQ Invesco QQQ | 0.67% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% | 1.41% |
NOBL ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF | 2.20% | 2.05% | 2.09% | 1.94% | 1.89% | 2.14% | 1.89% | 2.37% | 1.74% | 2.13% | 2.02% | 1.59% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.30% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% | 2.67% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.94% | 3.92% | 2.99% | 1.30% | 0.24% | 0.94% | 2.12% | 1.72% | 0.98% | 0.71% | 0.54% | 0.36% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 40+40+20+BTC. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the 40+40+20+BTC was 76.80%, occurring on Dec 15, 2018. Recovery took 710 trading sessions.
The current 40+40+20+BTC drawdown is 2.99%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -76.8% | Dec 17, 2017 | 364 | Dec 15, 2018 | 710 | Nov 24, 2020 | 1074 |
| -74.25% | Nov 9, 2021 | 366 | Nov 9, 2022 | 481 | Mar 4, 2024 | 847 |
| -50.76% | Apr 14, 2021 | 98 | Jul 20, 2021 | 91 | Oct 19, 2021 | 189 |
| -34.73% | Dec 5, 2013 | 629 | Aug 25, 2015 | 486 | Dec 23, 2016 | 1115 |
| -27.61% | Dec 18, 2024 | 112 | Apr 8, 2025 | — | — | — |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The current 40+40+20+BTC volatility is 14.90%, representing the average percentage change in the investments's value, either up or down over the past month. The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
Diversification
Asset Correlations Table
| BTC-USD | IAU | NOBL | QQQ | SHY | TLT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD | 1.00 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.00 | -0.01 |
| IAU | 0.07 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| NOBL | 0.08 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 0.57 | -0.07 | -0.13 |
| QQQ | 0.13 | 0.01 | 0.57 | 1.00 | -0.07 | -0.10 |
| SHY | 0.00 | 0.36 | -0.07 | -0.07 | 1.00 | 0.58 |
| TLT | -0.01 | 0.29 | -0.13 | -0.10 | 0.58 | 1.00 |