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WatchOut
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


S&P 500 Index

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in WatchOut, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.


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The earliest data available for this chart is Oct 7, 2009, corresponding to the inception date of VRSK

Returns By Period

As of Apr 4, 2026, the WatchOut returned -4.93% Year-To-Date and 19.97% of annualized return in the last 10 years.


1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
0.11%-4.18%-3.84%-1.98%21.98%16.86%10.37%12.29%
Portfolio
WatchOut
0.81%-6.27%-4.93%-14.19%-9.96%15.89%15.11%19.97%
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
0.59%-3.24%-15.66%-29.51%-36.19%5.01%12.61%19.17%
BRO
Brown & Brown, Inc.
2.41%-8.21%-17.06%-30.24%-46.61%5.28%7.96%15.06%
CASY
Casey's General Stores, Inc.
0.85%8.70%34.63%31.27%66.21%51.49%28.72%21.80%
EXLS
ExlService Holdings, Inc.
1.58%-4.00%-27.10%-28.16%-32.86%-1.55%11.10%11.54%
LRN
Stride, Inc.
0.88%3.40%38.06%-37.56%-31.32%31.85%23.07%24.59%
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
1.44%-3.34%5.92%0.15%-9.18%19.30%18.99%18.99%
TDG
TransDigm Group Incorporated
-0.53%-11.26%-12.25%-9.45%-8.52%22.33%18.39%23.84%
CDNS
Cadence Design Systems, Inc.
-0.52%-8.75%-10.83%-19.74%11.98%9.65%14.52%28.03%
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
0.59%-14.27%-27.49%-30.76%-31.75%5.23%2.49%12.47%
CACI
CACI International Inc
2.58%-7.83%8.04%8.56%46.82%24.08%18.28%18.60%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Oct 8, 2009, WatchOut's average daily return is +0.08%, while the average monthly return is +1.59%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 3.7 years.

Historically, 67% of months were positive and 33% were negative. The best month was Oct 2011 with a return of +15.7%, while the worst month was Mar 2020 at -16.2%. The longest winning streak lasted 7 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.

On a daily basis, WatchOut closed higher 56% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 24, 2020 with a return of +8.5%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -11.1%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20261.03%-0.67%-5.97%0.76%-4.93%
20256.31%0.59%1.45%2.87%1.25%1.44%-0.39%1.89%-0.98%-10.18%2.43%-2.38%3.46%
20244.33%5.55%3.12%-3.29%4.74%2.37%2.64%3.63%0.90%2.00%6.98%-6.39%29.08%
20236.81%-2.77%2.33%3.92%-1.72%6.86%0.41%1.89%-1.50%1.74%8.37%1.67%31.02%
2022-7.57%-0.68%8.70%-3.78%-0.27%-2.32%9.63%-1.50%-5.97%6.49%4.65%-5.59%-0.08%
2021-2.93%2.68%7.95%4.48%-0.01%1.45%2.55%3.92%-1.59%6.95%-1.72%5.92%33.15%

Benchmark Metrics

WatchOut has an annualized alpha of 9.22%, beta of 0.84, and R² of 0.74 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since October 08, 2009.

  • This portfolio captured 105.81% of S&P 500 Index gains but only 66.10% of its losses — a favorable profile for investors.
  • This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 9.22% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.

Alpha
9.22%
Beta
0.84
0.74
Upside Capture
105.81%
Downside Capture
66.10%

Expense Ratio

WatchOut has an expense ratio of 0.00%, meaning no management fees are charged. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


The portfolio doesn't include any funds that charge management fees.

Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

WatchOut ranks 2 for risk / return — in the bottom 2% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.


WatchOut Risk / Return Rank: 22
Overall Rank
WatchOut Sharpe Ratio Rank: 11
Sharpe Ratio Rank
WatchOut Sortino Ratio Rank: 11
Sortino Ratio Rank
WatchOut Omega Ratio Rank: 11
Omega Ratio Rank
WatchOut Calmar Ratio Rank: 33
Calmar Ratio Rank
WatchOut Martin Ratio Rank: 33
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference

Sharpe ratio

Return per unit of total volatility

-0.63

0.88

-1.51

Sortino ratio

Return per unit of downside risk

-0.75

1.37

-2.12

Omega ratio

Gain probability vs. loss probability

0.90

1.21

-0.31

Calmar ratio

Return relative to maximum drawdown

-0.55

1.39

-1.94

Martin ratio

Return relative to average drawdown

-1.22

6.43

-7.66


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

Risk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
4-1.27-1.730.77-0.88-1.62
BRO
Brown & Brown, Inc.
2-1.65-2.390.68-0.96-1.58
CASY
Casey's General Stores, Inc.
952.553.581.477.3321.50
EXLS
ExlService Holdings, Inc.
5-1.01-1.280.80-0.86-1.89
LRN
Stride, Inc.
24-0.47-0.100.97-0.48-0.81
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
24-0.42-0.450.94-0.35-0.60
TDG
TransDigm Group Incorporated
23-0.39-0.320.95-0.42-0.90
CDNS
Cadence Design Systems, Inc.
440.130.491.060.270.60
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
4-1.30-1.860.76-0.82-1.98
CACI
CACI International Inc
821.452.171.283.118.80

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

WatchOut Sharpe ratios as of Apr 4, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: -0.63
  • 5-Year: 0.96
  • 10-Year: 1.16
  • All Time: 1.17

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 0.99 to 1.69, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio places it in the bottom 25%. This suggests weaker risk-adjusted returns than most portfolios, possibly due to lower returns, higher volatility, or both. It may be worth reviewing the allocation. You can use the Portfolio Optimization tool to explore options for improving the Sharpe ratio.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of WatchOut compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

WatchOut provided a 1.40% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio1.40%1.23%1.08%1.01%0.94%0.68%0.68%1.62%0.95%1.43%1.62%1.01%
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
1.22%1.00%0.85%0.98%1.08%1.13%1.46%1.81%2.23%2.47%2.93%3.62%
BRO
Brown & Brown, Inc.
0.96%0.77%0.53%0.67%0.74%0.54%0.73%0.82%1.11%1.08%1.12%1.41%
CASY
Casey's General Stores, Inc.
0.30%0.39%0.47%0.59%0.65%0.69%0.72%0.77%0.86%0.89%0.77%0.70%
EXLS
ExlService Holdings, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
LRN
Stride, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
1.10%1.12%0.82%1.25%1.48%1.27%1.72%1.74%2.00%1.97%2.17%2.64%
TDG
TransDigm Group Incorporated
7.71%6.77%5.92%3.46%2.94%0.00%0.00%11.16%0.00%8.01%9.64%0.00%
CDNS
Cadence Design Systems, Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
BR
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.
2.36%1.66%1.49%1.48%2.04%1.33%1.46%1.66%1.77%1.53%1.90%2.12%
CACI
CACI International Inc
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the WatchOut. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the WatchOut was 34.15%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 80 trading sessions.

The current WatchOut drawdown is 15.99%.


Depth

Start

To Bottom

Bottom

To Recover

End

Total

-34.15%Feb 20, 202023Mar 23, 202080Jul 16, 2020103
-19.35%Jul 8, 201122Aug 8, 201157Oct 27, 201179
-18.19%Aug 22, 2025150Mar 27, 2026
-14.12%Apr 21, 202240Jun 16, 202228Jul 28, 202268
-12.84%Sep 17, 201869Dec 24, 201826Feb 1, 201995

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 15 assets, with an effective number of assets of 15.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests that the portfolio's investments are spread across a variety of assets, indicating a well-diversified allocation. However, true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

BenchmarkLRNCASYTSCOTDGCACIEXLSCDNSVRSKWRBPTCWMRSGAJGBRBROPortfolio
Benchmark1.000.360.430.480.570.510.530.660.500.490.660.510.510.560.620.570.79
LRN0.361.000.220.220.230.270.290.290.210.250.310.230.240.260.280.270.52
CASY0.430.221.000.360.300.330.330.270.300.330.320.330.320.330.330.350.54
TSCO0.480.220.361.000.290.310.300.350.330.310.370.330.320.350.370.360.56
TDG0.570.230.300.291.000.400.380.410.360.380.440.380.390.410.410.410.60
CACI0.510.270.330.310.401.000.410.380.370.380.400.400.400.390.440.410.62
EXLS0.530.290.330.300.380.411.000.390.390.380.430.370.370.390.480.400.63
CDNS0.660.290.270.350.410.380.391.000.390.270.580.330.350.390.480.390.64
VRSK0.500.210.300.330.360.370.390.391.000.380.390.450.460.470.490.480.62
WRB0.490.250.330.310.380.380.380.270.381.000.320.460.460.580.430.580.61
PTC0.660.310.320.370.440.400.430.580.390.321.000.340.350.420.510.420.68
WM0.510.230.330.330.380.400.370.330.450.460.341.000.790.490.480.480.63
RSG0.510.240.320.320.390.400.370.350.460.460.350.791.000.490.470.480.64
AJG0.560.260.330.350.410.390.390.390.470.580.420.490.491.000.510.730.68
BR0.620.280.330.370.410.440.480.480.490.430.510.480.470.511.000.510.71
BRO0.570.270.350.360.410.410.400.390.480.580.420.480.480.730.511.000.70
Portfolio0.790.520.540.560.600.620.630.640.620.610.680.630.640.680.710.701.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Oct 8, 2009