Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio
The Coward’s Portfolio, also known as the Smart Money Portfolio, is a popular lazy portfolio proposed by William Bernstein in 1996 at his Efficient Frontier website. It is designed for investors looking to extend simpler alternatives like his No-Brainer Portfolio.
Asset Allocation
Performance
Performance Chart
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The earliest data available for this chart is Mar 10, 2005, corresponding to the inception date of VPL
Returns By Period
As of May 11, 2025, the Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio returned 0.15% Year-To-Date and 5.89% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | -3.77% | 7.44% | -5.60% | 8.37% | 14.12% | 10.46% |
| Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio | 0.15% | 5.19% | -2.14% | 6.02% | 8.37% | 5.89% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF | 1.12% | 7.92% | -5.15% | 12.02% | 7.89% | 5.42% |
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF | -3.28% | 7.72% | -4.84% | 10.20% | 15.71% | 12.36% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 1.93% | 0.20% | 2.50% | 5.59% | 1.07% | 1.40% |
VPL Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF | 8.40% | 12.24% | 4.24% | 6.61% | 8.35% | 4.78% |
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | -9.79% | 9.98% | -15.57% | -2.96% | 12.52% | 7.56% |
VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF | 17.21% | 11.40% | 13.20% | 11.08% | 13.55% | 5.92% |
IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF | -12.66% | 9.73% | -17.33% | -4.23% | 13.26% | 6.55% |
VTV Vanguard Value ETF | -0.17% | 5.29% | -4.89% | 6.55% | 14.52% | 9.82% |
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | 7.39% | 10.94% | 2.28% | 8.20% | 6.49% | 2.83% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.97% | -0.19% | -1.89% | -0.65% | 0.97% | 0.15% | |||||||
| 2024 | -0.84% | 1.97% | 2.20% | -2.87% | 2.77% | 0.50% | 3.58% | 1.35% | 1.45% | -1.69% | 3.34% | -2.92% | 8.90% |
| 2023 | 5.09% | -2.31% | 0.52% | 0.32% | -1.54% | 3.56% | 2.59% | -1.98% | -2.90% | -2.03% | 5.58% | 4.85% | 11.79% |
| 2022 | -2.93% | -1.08% | 0.48% | -4.25% | 0.74% | -5.01% | 4.32% | -2.80% | -6.43% | 4.96% | 4.72% | -2.84% | -10.43% |
| 2021 | 0.83% | 2.83% | 2.53% | 2.15% | 1.31% | 0.25% | -0.10% | 1.24% | -2.23% | 2.56% | -1.66% | 2.86% | 13.14% |
| 2020 | -1.39% | -4.58% | -9.13% | 6.58% | 2.42% | 1.60% | 2.59% | 3.01% | -1.93% | -0.49% | 8.16% | 3.43% | 9.39% |
| 2019 | 5.58% | 1.66% | 0.31% | 2.01% | -3.70% | 3.97% | 0.23% | -1.21% | 1.81% | 1.56% | 1.36% | 2.00% | 16.41% |
| 2018 | 2.19% | -2.86% | -0.12% | 0.25% | 1.37% | 0.10% | 1.83% | 1.13% | -0.44% | -4.47% | 1.45% | -4.72% | -4.52% |
| 2017 | 0.95% | 1.59% | 0.27% | 0.67% | 0.38% | 0.89% | 1.30% | -0.19% | 1.96% | 0.95% | 1.50% | 0.63% | 11.43% |
| 2016 | -2.90% | -0.09% | 4.88% | 0.57% | 0.40% | 0.88% | 2.54% | 0.09% | 0.36% | -1.55% | 2.41% | 1.57% | 9.30% |
| 2015 | -0.92% | 2.74% | -0.13% | 0.39% | 0.23% | -1.08% | 0.20% | -3.73% | -1.39% | 4.22% | 0.18% | -1.49% | -1.00% |
| 2014 | -2.12% | 2.75% | 0.66% | 0.17% | 1.11% | 1.43% | -1.24% | 1.96% | -2.37% | 2.31% | 0.68% | -0.11% | 5.18% |
Expense Ratio
Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.15%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
The current rank of Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio is 50, indicating average performance compared to other portfolios on our website. Here’s a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF | 0.66 | 1.09 | 1.14 | 0.54 | 2.35 |
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF | 0.53 | 0.90 | 1.13 | 0.58 | 2.22 |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.34 | 5.70 | 1.74 | 5.75 | 16.25 |
VPL Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF | 0.33 | 0.56 | 1.07 | 0.35 | 1.04 |
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | -0.15 | 0.01 | 1.00 | -0.09 | -0.27 |
VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF | 0.66 | 1.13 | 1.15 | 0.91 | 2.56 |
IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF | -0.20 | -0.04 | 1.00 | -0.12 | -0.35 |
VTV Vanguard Value ETF | 0.45 | 0.82 | 1.11 | 0.55 | 2.00 |
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | 0.44 | 0.79 | 1.10 | 0.32 | 1.44 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio provided a 2.95% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.95% | 2.92% | 2.50% | 1.86% | 1.26% | 1.47% | 2.22% | 2.23% | 1.65% | 1.65% | 1.61% | 1.49% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
VNQ Vanguard Real Estate ETF | 4.07% | 3.85% | 3.95% | 3.91% | 2.56% | 3.93% | 3.39% | 4.74% | 4.23% | 4.82% | 3.92% | 3.60% |
VV Vanguard Large-Cap ETF | 1.31% | 1.24% | 1.41% | 1.66% | 1.19% | 1.46% | 1.81% | 2.09% | 1.75% | 1.98% | 1.96% | 1.77% |
SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.95% | 3.92% | 2.99% | 1.30% | 0.24% | 0.94% | 2.12% | 1.72% | 0.98% | 0.71% | 0.54% | 0.36% |
VPL Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF | 3.09% | 3.15% | 3.12% | 2.75% | 3.19% | 1.81% | 2.85% | 3.06% | 2.57% | 2.65% | 2.43% | 2.69% |
IJR iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF | 2.28% | 2.05% | 1.31% | 1.41% | 1.53% | 1.11% | 1.44% | 1.58% | 1.20% | 1.21% | 1.48% | 1.23% |
VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF | 2.99% | 3.61% | 3.15% | 3.25% | 3.05% | 2.11% | 3.27% | 3.95% | 2.70% | 3.52% | 3.25% | 4.62% |
IJS iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value ETF | 2.04% | 1.78% | 1.42% | 1.46% | 1.52% | 1.00% | 1.66% | 1.75% | 1.41% | 1.22% | 1.59% | 1.41% |
VTV Vanguard Value ETF | 2.33% | 2.31% | 2.46% | 2.52% | 2.15% | 2.56% | 2.50% | 2.73% | 2.29% | 2.44% | 2.60% | 2.22% |
EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | 2.26% | 2.43% | 2.63% | 2.50% | 1.99% | 1.45% | 2.76% | 2.24% | 1.89% | 1.89% | 2.49% | 2.23% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio was 37.25%, occurring on Mar 9, 2009. Recovery took 450 trading sessions.
The current Bill Bernstein Coward's Portfolio drawdown is 2.80%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -37.25% | Oct 10, 2007 | 355 | Mar 9, 2009 | 450 | Dec 17, 2010 | 805 |
| -21.52% | Jan 21, 2020 | 44 | Mar 23, 2020 | 114 | Sep 2, 2020 | 158 |
| -16.65% | Nov 9, 2021 | 225 | Sep 30, 2022 | 342 | Feb 12, 2024 | 567 |
| -14.01% | May 2, 2011 | 108 | Oct 3, 2011 | 95 | Feb 17, 2012 | 203 |
| -11.06% | Aug 30, 2018 | 80 | Dec 24, 2018 | 70 | Apr 5, 2019 | 150 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 9 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.65, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| ^GSPC | SHY | VNQ | EEM | VPL | VGK | IJS | IJR | VTV | VV | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | 1.00 | -0.20 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.82 | 0.84 | 0.92 | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| SHY | -0.20 | 1.00 | -0.05 | -0.15 | -0.11 | -0.12 | -0.19 | -0.18 | -0.21 | -0.19 | -0.13 |
| VNQ | 0.67 | -0.05 | 1.00 | 0.52 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.69 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| EEM | 0.75 | -0.15 | 0.52 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| VPL | 0.76 | -0.11 | 0.53 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 0.67 | 0.68 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| VGK | 0.79 | -0.12 | 0.56 | 0.77 | 0.79 | 1.00 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.78 | 0.79 | 0.84 |
| IJS | 0.82 | -0.19 | 0.68 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.69 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.85 | 0.82 | 0.92 |
| IJR | 0.84 | -0.18 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.93 |
| VTV | 0.92 | -0.21 | 0.69 | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.78 | 0.85 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 0.93 |
| VV | 0.99 | -0.19 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.79 | 0.82 | 0.85 | 0.92 | 1.00 | 0.94 |
| Portfolio | 0.94 | -0.13 | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.82 | 0.84 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 0.94 | 1.00 |
AI Insight on Diversification
The portfolio is moderately diversified but shows signs of concentration in certain equity positions. The correlation matrix reveals that most equity components—such as EEM (Emerging Markets), VPL (Pacific ex-Japan), VGK (Europe), IJS (Small Cap Value), IJR (Small Cap), VTV (Value), and VV (Total Market)—are highly correlated with each other, with correlations generally above 0.65 and often exceeding 0.8. This high inter-correlation among equity positions suggests that these holdings tend to move in tandem, which limits the diversification benefits within the equity sleeve of the portfolio.
The fixed income position, SHY (Short-Term Treasury), stands out as the least correlated asset with the rest of the portfolio, showing negative or near-zero correlations (ranging from -0.05 to -0.21) with all equity positions. This low or negative correlation is beneficial for diversification, as SHY can provide a buffer during equity market downturns and reduce overall portfolio volatility.
Regarding the portfolio’s correlation with individual positions, it is most strongly correlated with VV (0.94), VTV (0.93), and IJR (0.93), indicating these holdings have a dominant influence on the portfolio’s overall behavior. This dominance suggests a heavier weighting or a strong alignment of the portfolio’s risk-return profile with broad U.S. equity markets and value-oriented segments.
The presence of very high correlations between IJS and IJR (0.98), as well as between IJR and VTV (0.85), points to overlapping exposures within small and value-cap segments, which may reduce the effectiveness of diversification. Conversely, the inclusion of SHY provides a meaningful diversification anchor due to its low correlation with equities.
In summary, while the portfolio benefits from some diversification through the inclusion of a low-correlated fixed income asset, the equity portion is relatively concentrated, with many positions moving closely together. This concentration could lead to higher portfolio volatility during equity market stress and may limit the potential for risk reduction through diversification within the equity holdings.