Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
MO Altria Group, Inc. | Consumer Defensive | 55.17% |
SHYL Xtrackers Short Duration High Yield Bond ETF | High Yield Bonds | 44.40% |
USD=X USD Cash | 0.43% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in future hedge, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is never rebalanced.
Loading graphics...
The earliest data available for this chart is Jan 10, 2018, corresponding to the inception date of SHYL
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -3.43% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 16.08% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio future hedge | 0.00% | -1.77% | 8.92% | 2.57% | 15.92% | 16.08% | 9.58% | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
MO Altria Group, Inc. | 0.43% | -2.94% | 15.96% | 3.55% | 23.23% | 22.72% | 13.73% | 7.41% |
SHYL Xtrackers Short Duration High Yield Bond ETF | 0.09% | -0.02% | 0.10% | 1.19% | 6.78% | 8.06% | 4.89% | — |
USD=X USD Cash | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jan 11, 2018, future hedge's average daily return is +0.02%, while the average monthly return is +0.55%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 10.5 years.
Historically, 62% of months were positive and 38% were negative. The best month was Mar 2021 with a return of +9.3%, while the worst month was Jun 2022 at -13.7%. The longest winning streak lasted 5 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.
On a daily basis, future hedge closed higher 38% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 13, 2020 with a return of +5.8%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -6.2%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.32% | 6.50% | -1.88% | -0.08% | 8.92% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 0.50% | 4.05% | 4.58% | -0.71% | 2.12% | -0.23% | 3.24% | 5.32% | 0.21% | -8.61% | 2.82% | 0.02% | 13.30% |
| 2024 | -0.30% | 1.32% | 4.65% | -0.21% | 3.37% | 0.58% | 4.87% | 5.64% | -0.84% | 3.28% | 3.88% | -4.40% | 23.58% |
| 2023 | 0.72% | 0.98% | -0.21% | 3.34% | -3.69% | 2.93% | 0.61% | -1.06% | -1.75% | -2.62% | 4.12% | 0.60% | 3.73% |
| 2022 | 2.79% | 0.23% | 1.49% | 2.08% | -1.02% | -13.67% | 4.93% | 0.07% | -5.41% | 8.60% | 1.54% | -0.46% | -0.59% |
| 2021 | 0.09% | 3.03% | 9.30% | -2.93% | 1.62% | -0.27% | 0.31% | 2.34% | -3.66% | -1.44% | -2.05% | 6.88% | 13.15% |
Benchmark Metrics
future hedge has an annualized alpha of 2.26%, beta of 0.35, and R² of 0.27 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since January 11, 2018.
- This portfolio participated in 44.19% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 38.79% of its upside — more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
- Beta of 0.35 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.27 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R² of 0.27 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 2.26%
- Beta
- 0.35
- R²
- 0.27
- Upside Capture
- 38.79%
- Downside Capture
- 44.19%
Expense Ratio
future hedge has an expense ratio of 0.09%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
future hedge ranks 39 for risk / return — below 39% of portfolios on our site. The returns aren't fully compensating for the risk involved. This isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, but factor it into your decision — especially if you're risk-averse.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.28 | 0.88 | +0.40 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 1.74 | 1.37 | +0.37 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.25 | 1.21 | +0.04 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 1.64 | 1.39 | +0.25 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 3.49 | 6.43 | -2.95 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Altria Group, Inc. | 68 | 1.12 | 1.53 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 3.11 |
SHYL Xtrackers Short Duration High Yield Bond ETF | 72 | 1.28 | 1.89 | 1.33 | 1.79 | 10.41 |
USD=X USD Cash | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Loading graphics...
Dividends
Dividend yield
future hedge provided a 6.64% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 6.64% | 7.10% | 7.44% | 8.18% | 6.89% | 6.16% | 7.31% | 6.26% | 5.81% | 1.96% | 1.92% | 2.06% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
MO Altria Group, Inc. | 6.39% | 7.21% | 7.65% | 9.52% | 8.05% | 7.43% | 8.29% | 6.57% | 6.07% | 3.56% | 3.48% | 3.73% |
SHYL Xtrackers Short Duration High Yield Bond ETF | 7.02% | 7.02% | 7.26% | 6.60% | 5.52% | 4.65% | 6.16% | 5.93% | 5.54% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
USD=X USD Cash | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
Loading graphics...
Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the future hedge. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the future hedge was 33.11%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 368 trading sessions.
The current future hedge drawdown is 2.58%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -33.11% | Jan 25, 2018 | 789 | Mar 23, 2020 | 368 | Mar 26, 2021 | 1157 |
| -16.34% | Apr 22, 2022 | 162 | Sep 30, 2022 | 531 | Mar 14, 2024 | 693 |
| -9.12% | Oct 8, 2025 | 24 | Oct 31, 2025 | 96 | Feb 4, 2026 | 120 |
| -7.84% | Sep 3, 2021 | 89 | Nov 30, 2021 | 35 | Jan 4, 2022 | 124 |
| -5.84% | Dec 2, 2024 | 40 | Jan 10, 2025 | 46 | Feb 25, 2025 | 86 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
Loading graphics...
Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 3 assets, with an effective number of assets of 1.99, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | USD=X | SHYL | MO | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| USD=X | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| SHYL | 0.71 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| MO | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1.00 | 0.95 |
| Portfolio | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.95 | 1.00 |