Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
MO Altria Group, Inc. | Consumer Defensive | 55.17% |
SHYL Xtrackers Short Duration High Yield Bond ETF | High Yield Bonds | 44.40% |
USD=X USD Cash | 0.43% |
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Add portfolio to the optimizer to find optimal allocations for your target — whether that's maximizing returns, minimizing drawdowns, or balancing risk across holdings.
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Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in future hedge, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is never rebalanced.
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Returns By Period
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.30% | 0.09% | 8.18% | 8.17% | 23.42% | 19.88% | 11.91% | 13.45% |
Portfolio future hedge | 0.00% | 2.69% | 14.76% | 15.72% | 18.76% | 17.59% | 10.76% | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
MO Altria Group, Inc. | -1.25% | 4.65% | 25.71% | 27.02% | 28.81% | 25.85% | 16.08% | 7.79% |
SHYL Xtrackers Short Duration High Yield Bond ETF | -0.02% | -0.22% | 1.03% | 1.62% | 5.92% | 8.15% | 4.82% | — |
USD=X USD Cash | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jan 11, 2018, future hedge's average daily return is +0.02%, while the average monthly return is +0.59%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 9.8 years.
Historically, 63% of months were positive and 37% were negative. The best month was Mar 2021 with a return of +9.3%, while the worst month was Jun 2022 at -13.7%. The longest winning streak lasted 5 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.
On a daily basis, future hedge closed higher 38% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 13, 2020 with a return of +5.8%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -6.2%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.32% | 6.50% | -1.88% | 6.55% | -2.51% | 1.34% | 14.76% | ||||||
| 2025 | 0.50% | 4.05% | 4.58% | -0.71% | 2.12% | -0.23% | 3.24% | 5.32% | 0.21% | -8.61% | 2.82% | 0.02% | 13.30% |
| 2024 | -0.30% | 1.32% | 4.65% | -0.21% | 3.37% | 0.58% | 4.87% | 5.64% | -0.84% | 3.28% | 3.88% | -4.40% | 23.58% |
| 2023 | 0.72% | 0.98% | -0.21% | 3.34% | -3.69% | 2.93% | 0.61% | -1.06% | -1.75% | -2.62% | 4.12% | 0.60% | 3.73% |
| 2022 | 2.79% | 0.23% | 1.49% | 2.08% | -1.02% | -13.67% | 4.93% | 0.07% | -5.41% | 8.60% | 1.54% | -0.46% | -0.59% |
| 2021 | 0.09% | 3.03% | 9.30% | -2.93% | 1.62% | -0.27% | 0.31% | 2.34% | -3.66% | -1.44% | -2.05% | 6.88% | 13.15% |
Benchmark Metrics
future hedge has an annualized alpha of 2.44%, beta of 0.35, and R2 of 0.25 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since January 11, 2018.
- This portfolio participated in 42.56% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 37.66% of its upside - more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
- Beta of 0.35 may look defensive, but with R2 of 0.25 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index - low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R2 of 0.25 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index - capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 2.44%
- Beta
- 0.35
- R²
- 0.25
- Upside Capture
- 37.66%
- Downside Capture
- 42.56%
Expense Ratio
future hedge has an expense ratio of 0.09%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
future hedge ranks 22 for risk / return — below 22% of Portfolios on our site. The returns aren't fully compensating for the risk involved. This isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, but factor it into your decision — especially if you're risk-averse.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for future hedge and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.45 | 1.94 | -0.49 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.03 | 2.63 | -0.59 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.28 | 1.35 | -0.07 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.07 | 2.59 | -0.51 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 5.03 | 11.84 | -6.81 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO Altria Group, Inc. | 74 | 1.29 | 1.80 | 1.25 | 1.76 | 4.45 |
SHYL Xtrackers Short Duration High Yield Bond ETF | 72 | 1.86 | 2.82 | 1.37 | 3.73 | 14.67 |
USD=X USD Cash | — | — | — | — | — | — |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
future hedge provided a 6.33% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 6.33% | 7.10% | 7.44% | 8.18% | 6.89% | 6.16% | 7.31% | 6.26% | 5.81% | 1.96% | 1.92% | 2.06% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
MO Altria Group, Inc. | 5.89% | 7.21% | 7.65% | 9.52% | 8.05% | 7.43% | 8.29% | 6.57% | 6.07% | 3.56% | 3.48% | 3.73% |
SHYL Xtrackers Short Duration High Yield Bond ETF | 6.94% | 7.02% | 7.26% | 6.60% | 5.52% | 4.65% | 6.16% | 5.93% | 5.54% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
USD=X USD Cash | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the future hedge. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the future hedge was 33.11%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 368 trading sessions.
The current future hedge drawdown is 2.77%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
COVID crash2020 | -33.11%Mar 2020 | 2y 1mo | 1y 3d | 3y 2moJan 2018 - Mar 2021 |
Bear market2022 | -16.34%Sep 2022 | 5mo 11d | 1y 5mo | 1y 10moApr 2022 - Mar 2024 |
2025 pullback2025 | -9.12%Oct 2025 | 23d | 3mo 6d | 3mo 29dOct 2025 - Feb 2026 |
2021 pullback2021 | -7.84%Nov 2021 | 2mo 28d | 1mo 5d | 4mo 3dSep 2021 - Jan 2022 |
2025 pullback2025 | -5.84%Jan 2025 | 1mo 9d | 1mo 16d | 2mo 25dDec 2024 - Feb 2025 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 3 assets, with an effective number of assets of 1.99, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your allocation shows noticeable concentration: a few holdings carry significantly more weight than the rest. Rebalancing toward more even weights — or adding less correlated assets — could reduce risk.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.12 | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.11 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.11, placing it in the bottom quartile across portfolios — positions are highly correlated. Consider adding assets from different classes or sectors to reduce risk.
future hedge correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.14 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.11 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.30 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 11, 2018 | 0.38 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. SHYL has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.71, while USD=X has the lowest at 0.00.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what future hedge is missing
See which holdings overlap, where future hedge is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
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