Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF | Small Cap Value Equities | 25% |
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | Systematic Trend | 25% |
SH ProShares Short S&P500 | Inverse Equities | 25% |
XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF | Energy Equities | 25% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 202603 Factor MoM, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Mar 8, 2022, corresponding to the inception date of CTA
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -2.33% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 29.73% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio 202603 Factor MoM | 1.64% | 4.57% | 17.77% | 16.50% | 22.53% | 9.18% | — | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 4.31% | 2.25% | 14.32% | 13.55% | 11.04% | 15.93% | — | — |
AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF | 0.68% | 2.81% | 9.54% | 11.38% | 45.09% | 16.21% | 10.57% | — |
SH ProShares Short S&P500 | 0.00% | 2.55% | 4.94% | 4.03% | -20.20% | -9.96% | -7.71% | -11.94% |
XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF | 1.64% | 8.72% | 41.32% | 34.95% | 70.54% | 12.59% | 18.53% | 6.18% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Mar 9, 2022, 202603 Factor MoM's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.64%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 9.1 years.
Historically, 60% of months were positive and 40% were negative. The best month was Oct 2022 with a return of +7.7%, while the worst month was Mar 2023 at -7.2%. The longest winning streak lasted 4 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 2 months.
On a daily basis, 202603 Factor MoM closed higher 53% of trading days. The best single day was Nov 6, 2024 with a return of +2.4%, while the worst single day was Mar 13, 2023 at -4.6%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.10% | 5.72% | 6.10% | -0.10% | 17.77% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 0.82% | -1.37% | 1.37% | -6.71% | 1.17% | 1.25% | 1.11% | 3.12% | -0.47% | -2.49% | 2.47% | -0.82% | -0.93% |
| 2024 | -1.49% | 2.34% | 3.41% | 1.63% | 0.22% | -2.57% | 1.81% | -2.42% | -1.23% | 0.62% | 5.32% | -2.88% | 4.47% |
| 2023 | 0.99% | 1.09% | -7.23% | 0.91% | -2.11% | 3.75% | 4.44% | 0.41% | 2.61% | -2.02% | -1.90% | 2.02% | 2.41% |
| 2022 | -0.63% | 2.59% | 5.13% | -5.85% | 5.00% | 2.91% | -3.74% | 7.66% | -1.21% | -3.81% | 7.36% |
Benchmark Metrics
202603 Factor MoM has an annualized alpha of 5.30%, beta of 0.21, and R² of 0.11 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since March 09, 2022.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (23.43%) than losses (5.64%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- Beta of 0.21 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.11 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R² of 0.11 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 5.30%
- Beta
- 0.21
- R²
- 0.11
- Upside Capture
- 23.43%
- Downside Capture
- 5.64%
Expense Ratio
202603 Factor MoM has an expense ratio of 0.57%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
202603 Factor MoM ranks 36 for risk / return — below 36% of portfolios on our site. The returns aren't fully compensating for the risk involved. This isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, but factor it into your decision — especially if you're risk-averse.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.24 | 0.88 | +0.36 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 1.70 | 1.37 | +0.34 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.22 | 1.21 | +0.02 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 1.70 | 1.39 | +0.31 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 4.21 | 6.43 | -2.22 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 21 | 0.43 | 0.68 | 1.09 | 0.71 | 1.23 |
AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF | 62 | 1.17 | 1.73 | 1.24 | 1.90 | 7.48 |
SH ProShares Short S&P500 | 3 | -0.63 | -0.77 | 0.89 | -0.45 | -0.54 |
XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF | 51 | 1.07 | 1.51 | 1.21 | 1.57 | 5.10 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
202603 Factor MoM provided a 2.73% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.73% | 2.97% | 3.76% | 4.36% | 2.97% | 0.72% | 0.93% | 0.90% | 0.50% | 0.21% | 0.19% | 0.55% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 3.74% | 3.19% | 4.80% | 7.78% | 6.58% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF | 1.39% | 1.58% | 1.61% | 1.65% | 1.74% | 1.28% | 1.21% | 0.38% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SH ProShares Short S&P500 | 3.95% | 4.49% | 6.20% | 5.37% | 1.08% | 0.00% | 0.16% | 1.76% | 1.01% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF | 1.83% | 2.62% | 2.45% | 2.63% | 2.47% | 1.61% | 2.34% | 1.47% | 0.99% | 0.76% | 0.76% | 2.21% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 202603 Factor MoM. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the 202603 Factor MoM was 13.91%, occurring on May 4, 2023. Recovery took 229 trading sessions.
The current 202603 Factor MoM drawdown is 1.28%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -13.91% | Nov 8, 2022 | 122 | May 4, 2023 | 229 | Apr 3, 2024 | 351 |
| -11% | Jan 16, 2025 | 59 | Apr 10, 2025 | 201 | Jan 29, 2026 | 260 |
| -9.36% | Jun 8, 2022 | 19 | Jul 6, 2022 | 70 | Oct 13, 2022 | 89 |
| -7.28% | Apr 30, 2024 | 93 | Sep 11, 2024 | 52 | Nov 22, 2024 | 145 |
| -5.3% | Nov 25, 2024 | 18 | Dec 19, 2024 | 16 | Jan 15, 2025 | 34 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 4 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | CTA | XOP | SH | AVUV | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | -0.11 | 0.36 | -1.00 | 0.74 | 0.25 |
| CTA | -0.11 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 | -0.09 | 0.32 |
| XOP | 0.36 | 0.02 | 1.00 | -0.36 | 0.63 | 0.89 |
| SH | -1.00 | 0.11 | -0.36 | 1.00 | -0.74 | -0.25 |
| AVUV | 0.74 | -0.09 | 0.63 | -0.74 | 1.00 | 0.65 |
| Portfolio | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.89 | -0.25 | 0.65 | 1.00 |