Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | Government Bonds | 15% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | Gold, Precious Metals | 75% |
SDS ProShares UltraShort S&P500 | Leveraged Equities, Leveraged | -50% |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | Currency | 25% |
VIXM ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF | Volatility | 50% |
VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF | Volatility | -15% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Confused, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Jan 4, 2011, corresponding to the inception date of VIXM
Returns By Period
As of Apr 1, 2026, the Confused returned 3.01% Year-To-Date and 27.25% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 2.91% | -5.09% | -4.63% | -2.39% | 16.33% | 16.69% | 10.18% | 12.16% |
Portfolio Confused | 6.98% | -11.91% | 3.01% | 15.52% | 64.55% | 40.12% | 28.49% | 27.25% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
SDS ProShares UltraShort S&P500 | -5.73% | 10.80% | 10.48% | 6.56% | -26.71% | -23.57% | -19.27% | -25.89% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 0.00% | 0.29% | 0.85% | 1.84% | 3.99% | 4.70% | 3.27% | 2.12% |
VIXM ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF | -2.72% | 9.31% | 12.31% | 8.41% | 8.20% | -13.85% | -12.86% | -10.48% |
VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF | -9.32% | 23.30% | 33.97% | 6.35% | -31.66% | -42.53% | -45.66% | -46.57% |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | -0.71% | 2.58% | 2.77% | 4.43% | 0.66% | 4.64% | 5.20% | 3.09% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 3.79% | -11.05% | 8.57% | 21.05% | 49.33% | 32.92% | 21.58% | 13.92% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jan 5, 2011, Confused's average daily return is +0.08%, while the average monthly return is +1.58%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 3.7 years.
Historically, 61% of months were positive and 39% were negative. The best month was Apr 2020 with a return of +21.9%, while the worst month was Sep 2011 at -12.9%. The longest winning streak lasted 14 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 5 months.
On a daily basis, Confused closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 17, 2020 with a return of +18.4%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -20.4%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.80% | 6.50% | -11.91% | 3.01% | |||||||||
| 2025 | 8.83% | 0.90% | 1.49% | 7.72% | 4.83% | 4.17% | 3.92% | 5.34% | 10.62% | 6.39% | 4.28% | 1.08% | 78.02% |
| 2024 | -0.66% | 5.02% | 10.13% | -4.00% | 3.58% | 5.23% | 3.93% | 3.96% | 6.06% | 1.95% | 1.85% | -1.33% | 41.17% |
| 2023 | 4.10% | -4.72% | 10.96% | 4.08% | -2.18% | -1.78% | 2.98% | -2.24% | -8.34% | 5.64% | 5.17% | 3.66% | 16.96% |
| 2022 | -8.72% | 2.50% | 9.02% | -8.02% | 0.72% | -9.69% | 5.63% | -3.20% | -9.17% | 5.90% | 8.47% | -2.89% | -11.59% |
| 2021 | 1.18% | 1.31% | -0.04% | 7.51% | 4.91% | -3.27% | 5.68% | 3.26% | -4.28% | 8.29% | 1.02% | 6.10% | 35.53% |
Benchmark Metrics
Confused has an annualized alpha of 9.02%, beta of 0.90, and R² of 0.50 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since January 05, 2011.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (94.26%) than losses (50.79%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 9.02% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- With beta of 0.90 and R² of 0.50, this portfolio moves broadly in line with S&P 500 Index — much of its variation is explained by market exposure rather than independent behavior.
- Alpha
- 9.02%
- Beta
- 0.90
- R²
- 0.50
- Upside Capture
- 94.26%
- Downside Capture
- 50.79%
Expense Ratio
Confused has an expense ratio of 0.35%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Confused ranks 91 for risk / return — in the top 91% of portfolios on our site. This means strong returns relative to risk — exactly what professional investors look for. Well-suited for investors who want to maximize return per unit of risk.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 2.08 | 0.90 | +1.19 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.78 | 1.39 | +1.39 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.46 | 1.21 | +0.24 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 3.37 | 1.40 | +1.97 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 14.53 | 6.61 | +7.92 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SDS ProShares UltraShort S&P500 | 3 | -0.74 | -0.90 | 0.87 | -0.57 | -0.68 |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 100 | 19.52 | 254.04 | 180.28 | 365.54 | 4,104.04 |
VIXM ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF | 21 | 0.28 | 0.64 | 1.09 | 0.37 | 0.54 |
VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF | 6 | -0.42 | -0.22 | 0.97 | -0.46 | -0.59 |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 14 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 1.02 | 0.13 | 0.24 |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 87 | 1.79 | 2.21 | 1.33 | 2.68 | 9.90 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Confused provided a -0.74% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | -0.74% | -1.46% | -2.07% | -0.53% | 0.25% | 0.00% | -0.41% | -0.11% | -0.12% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| Portfolio components: | |||||||||||
SDS ProShares UltraShort S&P500 | 4.35% | 5.88% | 7.89% | 5.77% | 0.35% | 0.00% | 0.92% | 1.84% | 1.28% | 0.09% | 0.00% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 4.01% | 4.13% | 5.03% | 4.92% | 1.35% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 2.05% | 1.66% | 0.68% | 0.07% |
VIXM ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VIXY ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 3.34% | 3.43% | 4.48% | 6.44% | 0.89% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.03% | 1.08% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Confused. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Confused was 35.08%, occurring on Mar 16, 2020. Recovery took 15 trading sessions.
The current Confused drawdown is 13.97%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -35.08% | Feb 20, 2020 | 18 | Mar 16, 2020 | 15 | Apr 6, 2020 | 33 |
| -26.09% | Feb 29, 2012 | 282 | Apr 15, 2013 | 767 | Apr 29, 2016 | 1049 |
| -23.77% | Apr 14, 2022 | 117 | Sep 30, 2022 | 310 | Dec 26, 2023 | 427 |
| -20.66% | Jan 29, 2018 | 229 | Dec 24, 2018 | 113 | Jun 7, 2019 | 342 |
| -20.17% | Jan 30, 2026 | 39 | Mar 26, 2026 | — | — | — |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 6 assets, with an effective number of assets of 0.85, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | BIL | GLD | UUP | VIXM | VIXY | SDS | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | -0.00 | 0.04 | -0.19 | -0.74 | -0.79 | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| BIL | -0.00 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| GLD | 0.04 | 0.02 | 1.00 | -0.44 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.64 |
| UUP | -0.19 | 0.01 | -0.44 | 1.00 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.19 | -0.31 |
| VIXM | -0.74 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 0.74 | -0.24 |
| VIXY | -0.79 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.90 | 1.00 | 0.78 | -0.38 |
| SDS | -1.00 | 0.01 | -0.03 | 0.19 | 0.74 | 0.78 | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| Portfolio | 0.60 | 0.02 | 0.64 | -0.31 | -0.24 | -0.38 | -0.60 | 1.00 |