Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio
This is a leveraged alternative to the classical 40/60 Portfolio. It is implemented without borrowing money at the portfolio level but using leveraged ETFs. Note that leveraged ETFs may involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 40% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | Leveraged Bonds, Leveraged | 20% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | Leveraged Equities, Leveraged | 40% |
Performance
Performance Chart
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The earliest data available for this chart is Jun 25, 2009, corresponding to the inception date of UPRO
Returns By Period
As of May 31, 2025, the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio returned 0.31% Year-To-Date and 9.01% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | 0.51% | 6.15% | -2.00% | 12.92% | 14.19% | 10.85% |
| Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio | 0.31% | 5.19% | -9.31% | 11.11% | 2.17% | 9.01% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | -6.95% | -11.20% | -24.36% | -17.08% | -36.78% | -13.59% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.19% | -3.21% | -6.21% | 0.06% | -9.59% | -0.69% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | -9.79% | 18.25% | -17.37% | 17.93% | 30.70% | 21.55% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.00% | 2.86% | -8.52% | -1.60% | 5.19% | 0.31% | |||||||
| 2024 | -0.62% | 3.97% | 4.21% | -11.71% | 8.55% | 5.80% | 3.72% | 3.94% | 3.94% | -6.23% | 8.26% | -9.59% | 12.28% |
| 2023 | 14.45% | -8.30% | 8.10% | 1.70% | -2.88% | 8.74% | 0.88% | -5.98% | -13.55% | -8.34% | 20.47% | 13.25% | 24.94% |
| 2022 | -10.69% | -5.77% | -1.28% | -19.22% | -3.01% | -11.27% | 13.46% | -10.42% | -19.27% | 2.91% | 12.51% | -10.73% | -51.01% |
| 2021 | -4.94% | -1.49% | 0.22% | 9.29% | 0.60% | 6.86% | 6.45% | 3.75% | -8.67% | 10.83% | 1.36% | 3.12% | 28.84% |
| 2020 | 6.69% | -3.83% | -10.27% | 15.34% | 4.29% | 1.77% | 11.50% | 4.65% | -4.09% | -6.73% | 14.08% | 3.42% | 38.80% |
| 2019 | 8.50% | 2.22% | 7.32% | 2.80% | -2.14% | 8.74% | 1.74% | 8.49% | -1.40% | 0.83% | 3.77% | 0.39% | 48.86% |
| 2018 | 4.03% | -8.98% | -1.16% | -2.20% | 4.43% | 1.07% | 3.04% | 5.15% | -1.97% | -12.48% | 3.36% | -6.22% | -12.96% |
| 2017 | 2.69% | 6.40% | -0.79% | 2.63% | 3.31% | 1.34% | 1.87% | 3.20% | 0.25% | 3.09% | 4.87% | 3.11% | 36.85% |
| 2016 | -1.10% | 2.71% | 7.57% | -0.52% | 2.65% | 7.36% | 6.72% | -1.25% | -1.97% | -7.19% | -3.73% | 2.47% | 13.31% |
| 2015 | 6.27% | -0.67% | -1.37% | -2.56% | -1.03% | -6.83% | 7.06% | -9.58% | -1.76% | 9.83% | -0.51% | -3.36% | -6.06% |
| 2014 | 0.75% | 6.06% | 1.54% | 2.65% | 5.69% | 2.42% | -1.46% | 9.86% | -4.11% | 5.33% | 6.67% | 2.40% | 44.00% |
Expense Ratio
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.65%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
The current rank of Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio is 12, meaning it’s performing worse than 88% of other portfolios on our website when it comes to balancing risk and reward. Below is a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | -0.40 | -0.33 | 0.96 | -0.19 | -0.68 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1.01 | -0.00 | -0.02 |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 0.31 | 0.72 | 1.10 | 0.27 | 0.84 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio provided a 3.11% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 3.11% | 2.95% | 2.21% | 1.60% | 0.65% | 1.09% | 1.26% | 1.60% | 1.05% | 1.09% | 1.18% | 1.15% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | 4.55% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.39% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% | 2.67% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 1.11% | 0.93% | 0.74% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.41% | 0.63% | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.34% | 0.22% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio was 56.30%, occurring on Oct 27, 2023. The portfolio has not yet recovered.
The current Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio drawdown is 31.85%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -56.3% | Dec 28, 2021 | 462 | Oct 27, 2023 | — | — | — |
| -36.73% | Feb 21, 2020 | 19 | Mar 18, 2020 | 56 | Jun 8, 2020 | 75 |
| -23.21% | Jan 29, 2018 | 229 | Dec 24, 2018 | 89 | May 3, 2019 | 318 |
| -19.02% | Mar 23, 2015 | 132 | Sep 28, 2015 | 172 | Jun 3, 2016 | 304 |
| -14.87% | Sep 3, 2020 | 41 | Oct 30, 2020 | 42 | Dec 31, 2020 | 83 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 3 assets, with an effective number of assets of 2.78, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| ^GSPC | TLT | TMF | UPRO | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | 1.00 | -0.27 | -0.27 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| TLT | -0.27 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -0.26 | 0.40 |
| TMF | -0.27 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -0.27 | 0.40 |
| UPRO | 1.00 | -0.26 | -0.27 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| Portfolio | 0.71 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.71 | 1.00 |
AI Insight on Diversification
The portfolio is moderately diversified with a balanced mix of equity and bond exposures, as reflected in the 40/60 stocks/bonds allocation and the correlation matrix. The portfolio shows a strong positive correlation with UPRO (0.71), indicating that leveraged equity exposure significantly influences overall portfolio movements. This suggests that UPRO is a dominant driver of portfolio returns and risk.
On the fixed income side, TLT and TMF are perfectly correlated with each other (1.0), which means these positions move in lockstep and do not add diversification benefits relative to one another. However, their low to moderate positive correlation with the portfolio (0.4) and negative correlation with UPRO (-0.26 and -0.27) help reduce overall portfolio volatility by offsetting equity risk.
The negative correlation between UPRO and the bond ETFs (TLT and TMF) is a key diversification feature, as it provides a hedge during equity downturns. Despite this, the perfect correlation between TLT and TMF indicates some concentration risk within the bond allocation, as these two positions do not diversify fixed income exposure internally.
Overall, the portfolio is somewhat concentrated in its equity exposure through UPRO and in its bond exposure through highly correlated bond ETFs. While the negative correlation between stocks and bonds supports diversification, the lack of variety within each asset class suggests room for improvement in reducing concentration risk and enhancing diversification.