Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds, Long-Term Bond | 40% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | Leveraged Bonds, Leveraged | 20% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | Leveraged Equities, S&P 500 | 40% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced when any position deviates by more than 10.0% from its target allocation.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Jun 25, 2009, corresponding to the inception date of UPRO
Returns By Period
As of Apr 11, 2026, the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio returned -1.85% Year-To-Date and 10.36% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | -0.11% | 2.78% | -0.42% | 4.03% | 27.10% | 18.38% | 10.55% | 12.70% |
Portfolio Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio | -0.38% | 2.69% | -1.85% | 0.17% | 34.35% | 13.61% | 1.10% | 10.36% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | -0.77% | -0.13% | -2.59% | -12.58% | -2.03% | -23.95% | -29.27% | -15.80% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.24% | 0.34% | 0.34% | -2.42% | 4.06% | -3.00% | -5.82% | -1.38% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | -0.32% | 7.04% | -4.75% | 5.82% | 81.86% | 43.24% | 17.71% | 27.03% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jun 26, 2009, Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio's average daily return is +0.07%, while the average monthly return is +1.45%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 4.0 years.
Historically, 66% of months were positive and 34% were negative. The best month was Nov 2023 with a return of +20.5%, while the worst month was Sep 2022 at -19.3%. The longest winning streak lasted 15 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 6 months.
On a daily basis, Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +11.9%, while the worst single day was Mar 18, 2020 at -12.0%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.48% | 3.03% | -10.46% | 4.84% | -1.85% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 3.00% | 2.86% | -8.52% | -1.60% | 5.19% | 8.55% | 1.22% | 2.00% | 7.64% | 3.77% | -0.29% | -2.86% | 21.63% |
| 2024 | -0.62% | 3.97% | 4.21% | -11.72% | 8.55% | 5.80% | 3.72% | 3.94% | 3.94% | -6.23% | 8.26% | -9.59% | 12.27% |
| 2023 | 14.45% | -8.30% | 8.10% | 1.70% | -2.88% | 8.74% | 0.88% | -5.98% | -13.55% | -8.34% | 20.47% | 13.25% | 24.94% |
| 2022 | -10.69% | -5.77% | -1.28% | -19.22% | -3.01% | -11.27% | 13.46% | -10.42% | -19.27% | 2.91% | 12.51% | -10.73% | -51.01% |
| 2021 | -4.94% | -1.49% | 0.22% | 9.29% | 0.60% | 6.86% | 6.45% | 3.75% | -8.67% | 10.83% | 1.36% | 3.12% | 28.84% |
Benchmark Metrics
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio has an annualized alpha of 4.85%, beta of 0.96, and R² of 0.58 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since June 26, 2009.
- This portfolio captured 128.41% of S&P 500 Index gains and 114.06% of its losses — amplifying both gains and losses, but participating more in upside than downside.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 4.85% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- With beta of 0.96 and R² of 0.58, this portfolio moves broadly in line with S&P 500 Index — much of its variation is explained by market exposure rather than independent behavior.
- Alpha
- 4.85%
- Beta
- 0.96
- R²
- 0.58
- Upside Capture
- 128.41%
- Downside Capture
- 114.06%
Expense Ratio
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.65%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio ranks 25 for risk / return — below 25% of portfolios on our site. The returns aren't fully compensating for the risk involved. This isn't necessarily a dealbreaker, but factor it into your decision — especially if you're risk-averse.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.85 | 2.23 | -0.39 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.49 | 3.12 | -0.62 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.33 | 1.42 | -0.09 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.87 | 4.05 | -1.18 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 9.78 | 17.91 | -8.13 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | 6 | -0.02 | 0.19 | 1.02 | -0.36 | -0.65 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 11 | 0.45 | 0.71 | 1.08 | 0.36 | 0.78 |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 60 | 2.33 | 2.82 | 1.38 | 4.45 | 18.10 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio provided a 2.98% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.98% | 2.92% | 2.95% | 2.21% | 1.60% | 0.65% | 1.09% | 1.26% | 1.60% | 1.05% | 1.09% | 1.18% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | 4.00% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.52% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 0.92% | 0.84% | 0.93% | 0.74% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.41% | 0.63% | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.34% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio was 56.30%, occurring on Oct 27, 2023. The portfolio has not yet recovered.
The current Stocks/Bonds 40/60 Leveraged Portfolio drawdown is 18.90%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -56.3% | Dec 28, 2021 | 462 | Oct 27, 2023 | — | — | — |
| -36.73% | Feb 21, 2020 | 19 | Mar 18, 2020 | 56 | Jun 8, 2020 | 75 |
| -23.21% | Jan 29, 2018 | 229 | Dec 24, 2018 | 89 | May 3, 2019 | 318 |
| -19.02% | Mar 23, 2015 | 132 | Sep 28, 2015 | 172 | Jun 3, 2016 | 304 |
| -14.87% | Sep 3, 2020 | 41 | Oct 30, 2020 | 42 | Dec 31, 2020 | 83 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 3 assets, with an effective number of assets of 2.78, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | TLT | TMF | UPRO | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | -0.25 | -0.25 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| TLT | -0.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -0.25 | 0.40 |
| TMF | -0.25 | 1.00 | 1.00 | -0.25 | 0.40 |
| UPRO | 1.00 | -0.25 | -0.25 | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| Portfolio | 0.71 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.71 | 1.00 |
AI Insight on Diversification
The portfolio is moderately diversified with a blend of equity and bond exposures, but it shows signs of concentration due to the correlation structure. The correlation matrix reveals that the portfolio has a strong positive correlation with UPRO (0.71), indicating that the leveraged equity position significantly influences the portfolio’s overall behavior. This suggests that UPRO is a dominant driver of portfolio returns and risk.
On the fixed income side, TLT and TMF are perfectly correlated (correlation of 1.0), meaning these two bond positions move in lockstep and do not add diversification benefits relative to each other. Their correlation with the portfolio is moderate (0.4), reflecting their partial influence on portfolio performance but less than that of UPRO.
The negative correlation between UPRO and the bond positions (-0.25) is a positive diversification feature, as it helps reduce overall portfolio volatility by offsetting some equity risk with bond exposure. However, the perfect correlation between TLT and TMF indicates a concentration within the bond allocation, which limits the diversification potential on that side.
Overall, the portfolio benefits from the low to moderate negative correlation between stocks and bonds, enhancing diversification. Yet, the dominance of UPRO and the redundancy of holding two perfectly correlated bond funds suggest the portfolio is somewhat concentrated. To improve diversification, the portfolio could consider reducing overlap in bond holdings or adding other asset classes with lower correlations to both equities and bonds.