OVER SPY
Ridiculous how a simple long short strategy can overfit to such great returns, and unlike 99% of my portfolio's, you can actually buy the deleveraged version of this.
Just imagine that in the next 10 years, it continues preforming well. That sure would be funny as NVDA, COST, PGR, AVGO cannot really outpreform their respective sectors given they are already so much a part of it (who knows, maybe NVDA will become 99% of the semiconductor sector). Also, the stock market has been so bullish these past 10 years, how could this ever continue? Even more, GOLD is so overvalued right now, and is hitting all time highs every day. BTC-USD almost 100% for sure will not keep the same returns as the past 10 years (actually, who knows, maybe BTC-USD becomes a 100 trillion dollar asset).
But since my intuition is wrong g64% of the time, its probably going to preform well.
Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
AVGO Broadcom Inc. | Technology | 40% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | Government Bonds | -60% |
BTAL AGFiQ US Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund | Long-Short | 10% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 20% | |
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | Consumer Defensive | 20% |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | Precious Metals, Gold | 30% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Technology | 60% |
PGR The Progressive Corporation | Financial Services | 20% |
SOXL Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares | Leveraged Equities, Leveraged | -40% |
Performance
Performance Chart
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The earliest data available for this chart is Sep 13, 2011, corresponding to the inception date of BTAL
Returns By Period
As of May 28, 2025, the OVER SPY returned 39.30% Year-To-Date and 86.91% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | 0.12% | 6.51% | -1.84% | 10.98% | 14.10% | 10.82% |
| OVER SPY | 40.09% | 14.24% | 53.18% | 162.50% | 97.12% | 87.06% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.40% | 23.99% | -0.38% | 18.40% | 72.44% | 73.82% |
AVGO Broadcom Inc. | 3.59% | 24.40% | 50.81% | 71.59% | 56.33% | 35.54% |
SOXL Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares | -37.41% | 38.65% | -36.47% | -68.13% | 11.27% | 21.06% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 16.66% | 14.76% | 13.58% | 59.59% | 63.12% | 85.15% |
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 17.96% | 2.76% | 5.92% | 37.88% | 31.58% | 29.17% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 1.67% | 0.33% | 2.10% | 4.73% | 2.60% | 1.79% |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 25.47% | -1.70% | 24.77% | 39.24% | 13.27% | 10.29% |
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | 10.84% | 3.67% | 5.62% | 25.24% | 28.96% | 23.81% |
BTAL AGFiQ US Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund | 3.68% | -4.10% | 4.64% | 3.98% | -3.28% | 1.16% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of OVER SPY, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -1.65% | 6.51% | -2.08% | 20.57% | 13.27% | 40.09% | |||||||
| 2024 | 19.77% | 19.58% | 13.15% | 1.82% | 12.05% | 9.87% | 6.60% | 9.31% | 6.85% | 14.04% | 11.97% | 7.99% | 248.79% |
| 2023 | 14.31% | 11.59% | 12.99% | 8.21% | 13.47% | 6.38% | 0.97% | 10.79% | -2.92% | 15.74% | 0.14% | -0.35% | 136.09% |
| 2022 | -5.41% | 5.65% | 16.30% | -13.35% | -4.78% | -8.15% | 0.16% | -1.52% | -4.54% | 12.69% | 3.57% | 3.49% | 0.17% |
| 2021 | -2.93% | 2.28% | 11.84% | 11.33% | 0.33% | 8.30% | 5.14% | 11.71% | -3.69% | 21.72% | 4.22% | -2.68% | 87.61% |
| 2020 | 14.96% | 3.62% | 6.16% | 8.85% | 11.29% | -1.67% | 11.04% | 13.85% | 2.93% | -0.78% | -6.50% | 15.60% | 110.18% |
| 2019 | -2.22% | 0.97% | 13.67% | -4.24% | 17.18% | 18.29% | -4.64% | 6.30% | -5.95% | 6.64% | -0.87% | -6.64% | 40.17% |
| 2018 | -0.96% | 0.96% | -3.66% | 12.21% | -4.59% | -2.63% | -1.04% | 6.61% | 7.95% | -5.51% | -18.15% | -0.79% | -12.25% |
| 2017 | 4.71% | 3.03% | -3.20% | 6.15% | 34.08% | 5.91% | 9.06% | 14.52% | -6.44% | 11.22% | 21.34% | 11.05% | 175.62% |
| 2016 | -2.68% | 10.93% | 6.07% | 3.28% | 14.18% | 11.81% | -0.82% | -2.31% | 0.94% | 5.53% | 9.41% | 17.89% | 100.97% |
| 2015 | -0.05% | 10.44% | 0.51% | -0.51% | -0.24% | 2.53% | 7.03% | 9.31% | 6.39% | 5.40% | 9.13% | 15.14% | 86.10% |
| 2014 | 1.86% | 3.61% | -8.71% | 4.96% | 8.57% | -5.84% | -2.87% | 4.58% | -2.31% | 3.01% | 3.96% | -1.87% | 7.78% |
Expense Ratio
OVER SPY has an expense ratio of -0.15%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
With an overall rank of 99, OVER SPY is among the top 1% of portfolios on our website when it comes to balancing risk and reward. Below is a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.31 | 1.04 | 1.14 | 0.24 | 1.82 |
AVGO Broadcom Inc. | 1.14 | 2.04 | 1.28 | 0.88 | 5.00 |
SOXL Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares | -0.53 | -0.05 | 0.99 | -0.73 | -1.35 |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 1.20 | 3.11 | 1.33 | 2.42 | 11.47 |
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 1.54 | 0.89 | 1.13 | 0.28 | 2.49 |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 16.89 | 231.09 | 133.55 | 57.31 | 4,510.95 |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 2.19 | 3.17 | 1.40 | 2.05 | 12.96 |
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | 1.15 | 1.34 | 1.18 | 0.33 | 3.05 |
BTAL AGFiQ US Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund | 0.20 | 0.11 | 1.01 | 0.15 | -0.13 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
OVER SPY provided a -2.46% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | -2.46% | -2.55% | -1.22% | 0.35% | 2.27% | 2.31% | 1.24% | 0.63% | 1.68% | -0.41% | 2.42% | 2.81% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.46% | 0.29% | 0.45% | 1.20% | 1.70% |
AVGO Broadcom Inc. | 0.93% | 0.94% | 1.71% | 3.02% | 2.24% | 3.05% | 3.54% | 3.11% | 1.87% | 1.43% | 1.13% | 1.22% |
SOXL Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares | 2.06% | 1.18% | 0.51% | 1.08% | 0.04% | 0.05% | 0.38% | 1.30% | 0.09% | 4.84% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 1.77% | 0.48% | 0.25% | 0.31% | 6.23% | 2.68% | 3.89% | 1.86% | 1.21% | 2.50% | 2.16% | 5.53% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 4.68% | 5.03% | 4.92% | 1.35% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 2.05% | 1.66% | 0.68% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | 0.47% | 0.49% | 2.87% | 0.76% | 0.54% | 3.38% | 0.86% | 1.08% | 4.81% | 1.09% | 4.06% | 0.97% |
BTAL AGFiQ US Market Neutral Anti-Beta Fund | 3.37% | 3.49% | 6.14% | 1.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.88% | 0.39% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the OVER SPY. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the OVER SPY was 36.99%, occurring on Dec 18, 2013. Recovery took 571 trading sessions.
The current OVER SPY drawdown is 0.25%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -36.99% | Dec 5, 2013 | 14 | Dec 18, 2013 | 571 | Jul 12, 2015 | 585 |
| -30.31% | Apr 11, 2013 | 86 | Jul 5, 2013 | 110 | Oct 23, 2013 | 196 |
| -30.2% | Apr 6, 2022 | 175 | Sep 27, 2022 | 143 | Feb 17, 2023 | 318 |
| -29.98% | Dec 17, 2017 | 410 | Jan 30, 2019 | 141 | Jun 20, 2019 | 551 |
| -24.13% | Sep 15, 2011 | 65 | Nov 18, 2011 | 241 | Jul 16, 2012 | 306 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 9 assets, with an effective number of assets of 0.79, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| ^GSPC | BIL | GLD | BTC-USD | PGR | BTAL | COST | AVGO | NVDA | SOXL | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ^GSPC | 1.00 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.48 | -0.51 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 0.61 | 0.78 | 0.14 |
| BIL | -0.01 | 1.00 | 0.02 | -0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| GLD | 0.04 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 0.06 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| BTC-USD | 0.14 | -0.00 | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.02 | -0.10 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.60 |
| PGR | 0.48 | 0.03 | -0.01 | 0.02 | 1.00 | -0.11 | 0.29 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| BTAL | -0.51 | 0.03 | 0.02 | -0.10 | -0.11 | 1.00 | -0.15 | -0.34 | -0.32 | -0.44 | 0.04 |
| COST | 0.56 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.29 | -0.15 | 1.00 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| AVGO | 0.64 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.22 | -0.34 | 0.32 | 1.00 | 0.55 | 0.75 | 0.18 |
| NVDA | 0.61 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.19 | -0.32 | 0.31 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.33 |
| SOXL | 0.78 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.27 | -0.44 | 0.37 | 0.75 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.04 |
| Portfolio | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.60 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.33 | 0.04 | 1.00 |