Hoping Future = Present
Hedge aganinst tech (QQQ) only accounts for 10%
In an actual portfolio, buy QQQM instead of QQQ. QQQ is just so there is a larger history we can backtest.
Instead of buying ridiculously overvalued stocks, we buy relatively cheaper stocks in hopes that they will continue to outpreform.
Asset Allocation
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Hoping Future = Present, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced every 3 months.
The earliest data available for this chart is Jul 26, 2018, corresponding to the inception date of PDD
Returns By Period
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | 2.22% | 0.69% | 10.04% | 22.93% | 12.98% | 11.70% |
| Hoping Future = Present | 5.54% | 4.46% | 12.58% | 27.84% | 19.15% | N/A |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
GPN Global Payments Inc. | -2.69% | -2.94% | 7.84% | -17.82% | -10.77% | 10.04% |
LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | 2.27% | 1.63% | -4.69% | 18.62% | 5.57% | 13.17% |
CVS CVS Health Corporation | 23.06% | 24.17% | -9.28% | -21.87% | -1.99% | -3.18% |
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 1.65% | 1.06% | 14.06% | 35.94% | 26.89% | 28.08% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ | 3.60% | 1.35% | 14.51% | 25.71% | 19.88% | 19.02% |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 2.19% | 1.46% | 5.68% | 20.18% | 15.67% | 12.37% |
TGT Target Corporation | 2.00% | 1.76% | -4.66% | -0.39% | 6.29% | 9.46% |
NVR NVR, Inc. | 0.26% | -0.10% | -4.65% | 16.55% | 16.12% | 21.01% |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | 15.49% | 14.20% | 73.34% | 194.97% | 56.68% | 15.03% |
HD The Home Depot, Inc. | 6.56% | 5.51% | 15.91% | 19.52% | 14.92% | 17.51% |
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | 2.55% | 0.00% | 15.37% | 37.60% | 27.14% | 23.65% |
WM Waste Management, Inc. | 3.79% | 2.65% | 5.16% | 14.33% | 13.44% | 17.19% |
LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. | 6.70% | 6.04% | 10.28% | 25.96% | 19.05% | 16.37% |
SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. | 14.09% | 11.82% | 57.67% | 138.20% | 29.40% | N/A |
PDD Pinduoduo Inc. | 14.80% | 14.25% | -12.74% | -21.46% | 24.96% | N/A |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of Hoping Future = Present, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2.19% | 7.02% | 3.55% | -3.04% | 5.05% | -0.36% | 4.75% | 3.95% | 4.43% | -1.56% | 6.28% | -8.18% | 25.56% |
| 2023 | 6.57% | -2.09% | 0.81% | 0.18% | -3.04% | 6.17% | 3.71% | 1.36% | -2.60% | 0.77% | 10.53% | 4.34% | 29.08% |
| 2022 | -3.02% | -3.87% | 2.82% | -4.76% | -2.31% | -6.25% | 6.16% | 1.41% | -6.88% | 6.09% | 8.57% | -5.02% | -8.30% |
| 2021 | -2.69% | 0.79% | 2.45% | 4.12% | 0.24% | 0.92% | -2.39% | 1.71% | -4.83% | 6.44% | -2.31% | 4.71% | 8.89% |
| 2020 | 0.69% | -6.94% | -9.01% | 12.25% | 9.11% | 4.23% | 7.35% | 5.89% | -3.88% | -1.80% | 14.56% | 6.90% | 43.02% |
| 2019 | 7.39% | 2.76% | 0.48% | 4.79% | -4.17% | 6.08% | 0.62% | 4.03% | 0.28% | 2.31% | 3.36% | 1.36% | 32.90% |
| 2018 | -1.59% | 6.27% | 3.23% | -8.33% | 1.15% | -7.42% | -7.33% |
Expense Ratio
Hoping Future = Present has an expense ratio of 0.02%, which is considered low compared to other funds. Below you can find the expense ratios of portfolio funds side-by-side and effortlessly compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
With an overall rank of 84, Hoping Future = Present is among the top 16% of portfolios on our website when it comes to balancing risk and reward. Below is a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GPN Global Payments Inc. | -0.58 | -0.65 | 0.91 | -0.29 | -0.79 |
LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | 0.93 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 1.92 |
CVS CVS Health Corporation | -0.65 | -0.71 | 0.90 | -0.42 | -1.00 |
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 2.08 | 3.02 | 1.37 | 3.97 | 10.46 |
QQQ Invesco QQQ | 1.42 | 1.94 | 1.25 | 1.90 | 6.64 |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 1.66 | 2.36 | 1.30 | 2.92 | 6.97 |
TGT Target Corporation | 0.02 | 0.29 | 1.05 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
NVR NVR, Inc. | 0.80 | 1.30 | 1.15 | 0.87 | 2.48 |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | 5.53 | 6.97 | 1.92 | 10.57 | 40.69 |
HD The Home Depot, Inc. | 1.03 | 1.51 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 2.46 |
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | 1.98 | 2.56 | 1.36 | 3.65 | 8.56 |
WM Waste Management, Inc. | 0.80 | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.22 | 2.80 |
LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. | 1.12 | 1.65 | 1.20 | 1.37 | 2.84 |
SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. | 4.02 | 4.99 | 1.63 | 3.49 | 34.03 |
PDD Pinduoduo Inc. | -0.37 | -0.16 | 0.98 | -0.37 | -0.93 |
Dividends
Dividend yield
Hoping Future = Present provided a 1.13% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 1.13% | 1.05% | 1.01% | 0.86% | 1.24% | 1.15% | 1.16% | 1.15% | 1.16% | 1.12% | 1.18% | 1.37% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
GPN Global Payments Inc. | 0.92% | 0.89% | 0.79% | 1.01% | 0.66% | 0.36% | 0.12% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.10% |
LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | 2.57% | 2.62% | 2.68% | 2.34% | 2.98% | 2.76% | 2.31% | 3.13% | 2.32% | 2.71% | 2.83% | 2.85% |
CVS CVS Health Corporation | 4.88% | 5.93% | 3.06% | 2.36% | 1.94% | 2.93% | 2.69% | 3.05% | 2.76% | 2.15% | 1.43% | 1.14% |
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 2.05% | 0.48% | 0.25% | 0.31% | 6.23% | 2.68% | 3.89% | 1.86% | 1.21% | 2.50% | 2.16% | 5.53% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ | 0.54% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% | 1.41% |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TGT Target Corporation | 3.22% | 3.28% | 3.06% | 2.66% | 1.37% | 1.52% | 2.03% | 3.81% | 3.74% | 3.21% | 2.97% | 2.50% |
NVR NVR, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
HD The Home Depot, Inc. | 2.17% | 2.31% | 2.41% | 2.41% | 1.59% | 2.26% | 2.49% | 2.40% | 1.88% | 2.06% | 1.78% | 1.79% |
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | 0.48% | 0.49% | 2.87% | 0.76% | 0.54% | 3.38% | 0.86% | 1.08% | 4.81% | 1.09% | 4.06% | 0.97% |
WM Waste Management, Inc. | 1.43% | 1.49% | 1.56% | 1.66% | 1.38% | 1.85% | 1.80% | 2.09% | 1.97% | 2.31% | 2.89% | 2.92% |
LOW Lowe's Companies, Inc. | 1.74% | 1.82% | 1.93% | 1.86% | 1.08% | 1.40% | 1.72% | 1.93% | 1.64% | 1.77% | 1.34% | 1.19% |
SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
PDD Pinduoduo Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Hoping Future = Present. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Hoping Future = Present was 26.78%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 49 trading sessions.
The current Hoping Future = Present drawdown is 3.09%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -26.78% | Feb 21, 2020 | 22 | Mar 23, 2020 | 49 | Jun 2, 2020 | 71 |
| -20.16% | Sep 14, 2018 | 70 | Dec 24, 2018 | 118 | Jun 14, 2019 | 188 |
| -19.57% | Dec 31, 2021 | 117 | Jun 17, 2022 | 266 | Jul 12, 2023 | 383 |
| -8.9% | Feb 18, 2021 | 13 | Mar 8, 2021 | 28 | Apr 16, 2021 | 41 |
| -8.24% | Dec 2, 2024 | 20 | Dec 30, 2024 | — | — | — |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The current Hoping Future = Present volatility is 3.33%, representing the average percentage change in the investments's value, either up or down over the past month. The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
Diversification
Asset Correlations Table
| PDD | SFM | SPOT | LMT | CVS | PGR | WM | NVR | TGT | COST | GPN | BRK-B | QQQ | LOW | HD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDD | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.05 | -0.01 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 0.40 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| SFM | 0.04 | 1.00 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.31 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| SPOT | 0.34 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 0.55 | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| LMT | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.30 | 0.44 | 0.19 | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| CVS | 0.06 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 0.33 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 0.48 | 0.23 | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| PGR | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.11 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 0.32 | 0.48 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| WM | -0.01 | 0.19 | 0.10 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| NVR | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| TGT | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.52 |
| COST | 0.14 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.32 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.59 | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| GPN | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.51 | 0.55 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| BRK-B | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.44 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| QQQ | 0.40 | 0.19 | 0.55 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| LOW | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 0.36 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.52 | 1.00 | 0.82 |
| HD | 0.19 | 0.26 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.82 | 1.00 |