Asset Allocation
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Hoping Future = Present, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Jul 26, 2018, corresponding to the inception date of PDD
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -3.43% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 16.08% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio Hoping Future = Present | 0.30% | -4.99% | -1.98% | -6.31% | -5.37% | 16.57% | 12.26% | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
GPN Global Payments Inc. | -2.00% | -17.30% | -16.98% | -25.41% | -34.89% | -14.39% | -20.26% | 0.43% |
LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | 0.83% | -6.74% | 29.44% | 26.33% | 41.28% | 11.53% | 13.95% | 13.73% |
CVS CVS Health Corporation | 1.38% | -8.70% | -6.63% | -3.55% | 12.08% | 2.74% | 3.10% | -0.49% |
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 1.03% | -8.44% | -8.77% | -14.68% | -26.04% | 13.80% | 18.00% | 22.03% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.11% | -2.64% | -4.65% | -3.18% | 23.45% | 22.97% | 13.18% | 19.05% |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | -0.24% | -0.83% | -5.03% | -3.74% | -11.23% | 15.44% | 13.08% | 12.79% |
TGT Target Corporation | 0.00% | -0.29% | 24.48% | 37.65% | 19.10% | -6.85% | -7.05% | 7.03% |
NVR NVR, Inc. | -0.02% | -9.48% | -8.63% | -17.45% | -8.75% | 6.11% | 6.85% | 14.52% |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | 2.21% | -0.58% | -2.67% | -26.37% | -51.03% | 30.04% | 24.03% | 10.48% |
HD The Home Depot, Inc. | -2.41% | -11.76% | -5.91% | -17.50% | -11.09% | 5.23% | 3.38% | 11.72% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jul 27, 2018, Hoping Future = Present's average daily return is +0.07%, while the average monthly return is +1.40%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 4.2 years.
Historically, 65% of months were positive and 35% were negative. The best month was Nov 2020 with a return of +12.7%, while the worst month was Mar 2020 at -8.6%. The longest winning streak lasted 8 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 3 months.
On a daily basis, Hoping Future = Present closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 13, 2020 with a return of +8.4%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -10.3%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.24% | 3.59% | -5.57% | -0.04% | -1.98% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 7.09% | 3.27% | -1.94% | -0.41% | 0.38% | 0.59% | -3.04% | 5.29% | -0.14% | -5.35% | 1.46% | -0.77% | 5.96% |
| 2024 | 3.26% | 7.48% | 4.05% | -3.89% | 3.43% | 0.07% | 5.52% | 4.27% | 3.17% | -1.80% | 6.53% | -7.85% | 25.70% |
| 2023 | 7.45% | -1.69% | 2.13% | 1.05% | -2.64% | 6.14% | 3.59% | 1.37% | -2.83% | 0.35% | 9.09% | 4.79% | 31.85% |
| 2022 | -1.99% | -3.27% | 3.13% | -5.59% | -1.06% | -6.57% | 7.42% | 0.16% | -7.25% | 6.16% | 7.51% | -4.63% | -7.33% |
| 2021 | -1.60% | 0.41% | 7.24% | 4.44% | 1.07% | 0.38% | -0.68% | 1.40% | -4.31% | 6.17% | -1.61% | 6.03% | 19.82% |
Benchmark Metrics
Hoping Future = Present has an annualized alpha of 6.99%, beta of 0.82, and R² of 0.82 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since July 27, 2018.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (95.13%) than losses (73.35%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 6.99% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- Alpha
- 6.99%
- Beta
- 0.82
- R²
- 0.82
- Upside Capture
- 95.13%
- Downside Capture
- 73.35%
Expense Ratio
Hoping Future = Present has an expense ratio of 0.02%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Hoping Future = Present ranks 2 for risk / return — in the bottom 2% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.37 | 0.88 | -1.26 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.45 | 1.37 | -1.81 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.94 | 1.21 | -0.26 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.50 | 1.39 | -1.89 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.15 | 6.43 | -7.58 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GPN Global Payments Inc. | 8 | -0.76 | -0.99 | 0.87 | -0.98 | -1.64 |
LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | 81 | 1.55 | 1.99 | 1.29 | 2.74 | 7.01 |
CVS CVS Health Corporation | 52 | 0.39 | 0.68 | 1.10 | 0.74 | 1.81 |
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 6 | -1.04 | -1.35 | 0.83 | -0.91 | -1.47 |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 59 | 1.04 | 1.62 | 1.23 | 1.93 | 7.00 |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 15 | -0.62 | -0.73 | 0.90 | -0.70 | -1.19 |
TGT Target Corporation | 57 | 0.56 | 0.98 | 1.12 | 1.02 | 2.16 |
NVR NVR, Inc. | 26 | -0.32 | -0.28 | 0.97 | -0.30 | -0.72 |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | 7 | -1.18 | -1.69 | 0.76 | -0.79 | -1.24 |
HD The Home Depot, Inc. | 21 | -0.48 | -0.56 | 0.94 | -0.42 | -0.94 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Hoping Future = Present provided a 1.67% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 1.67% | 1.20% | 1.05% | 1.01% | 0.86% | 1.24% | 1.15% | 1.16% | 1.15% | 1.16% | 1.12% | 1.18% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
GPN Global Payments Inc. | 1.56% | 1.29% | 0.89% | 0.79% | 1.01% | 0.66% | 0.36% | 0.12% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.06% |
LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | 2.17% | 2.76% | 2.62% | 2.68% | 2.34% | 2.98% | 2.76% | 2.31% | 3.13% | 2.32% | 2.71% | 2.83% |
CVS CVS Health Corporation | 3.62% | 3.35% | 5.93% | 3.06% | 2.36% | 1.94% | 2.93% | 2.69% | 3.05% | 2.76% | 2.15% | 1.43% |
PGR The Progressive Corporation | 7.17% | 2.15% | 0.48% | 0.25% | 0.31% | 6.23% | 2.68% | 3.89% | 1.86% | 1.21% | 2.50% | 2.16% |
QQQ Invesco QQQ ETF | 0.48% | 0.45% | 0.56% | 0.62% | 0.80% | 0.43% | 0.55% | 0.74% | 0.91% | 0.84% | 1.06% | 0.99% |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TGT Target Corporation | 3.77% | 4.62% | 3.28% | 3.06% | 2.66% | 1.37% | 1.52% | 2.03% | 3.81% | 3.74% | 3.21% | 2.97% |
NVR NVR, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SFM Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
HD The Home Depot, Inc. | 2.87% | 2.67% | 2.31% | 2.41% | 2.41% | 1.59% | 2.26% | 2.49% | 2.40% | 1.88% | 2.06% | 1.78% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Hoping Future = Present. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Hoping Future = Present was 26.45%, occurring on Mar 23, 2020. Recovery took 47 trading sessions.
The current Hoping Future = Present drawdown is 7.97%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -26.45% | Feb 21, 2020 | 22 | Mar 23, 2020 | 47 | May 29, 2020 | 69 |
| -20.21% | Sep 14, 2018 | 70 | Dec 24, 2018 | 89 | May 3, 2019 | 159 |
| -18.37% | Jan 13, 2022 | 108 | Jun 17, 2022 | 157 | Feb 2, 2023 | 265 |
| -10.96% | Feb 20, 2025 | 34 | Apr 8, 2025 | 94 | Aug 22, 2025 | 128 |
| -9.11% | Sep 12, 2025 | 136 | Mar 27, 2026 | — | — | — |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 15 assets, with an effective number of assets of 11.11, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests that the portfolio's investments are spread across a variety of assets, indicating a well-diversified allocation. However, true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | PDD | SFM | SPOT | LMT | CVS | PGR | WM | NVR | TGT | COST | GPN | BRK-B | LOW | QQQ | HD | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.23 | 0.45 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.92 | 0.60 | 0.82 |
| PDD | 0.35 | 1.00 | 0.03 | 0.32 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.03 | -0.02 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.41 | 0.19 | 0.44 |
| SFM | 0.23 | 0.03 | 1.00 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.23 | 0.33 | 0.13 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| SPOT | 0.45 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.52 | 0.24 | 0.47 |
| LMT | 0.31 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 1.00 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 0.41 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| CVS | 0.37 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.32 | 1.00 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.45 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| PGR | 0.34 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 0.34 | 0.28 | 1.00 | 0.41 | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.48 | 0.26 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.53 |
| WM | 0.40 | -0.02 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 0.41 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 0.31 | 0.43 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| NVR | 0.48 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 0.55 | 0.39 | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| TGT | 0.47 | 0.19 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.39 | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| COST | 0.54 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| GPN | 0.61 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.44 | 0.64 |
| BRK-B | 0.62 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.38 | 0.45 | 0.48 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.72 |
| LOW | 0.58 | 0.19 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 0.26 | 0.34 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| QQQ | 0.92 | 0.41 | 0.18 | 0.52 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.52 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 1.00 | 0.51 | 0.71 |
| HD | 0.60 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| Portfolio | 0.82 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.64 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.70 | 1.00 |