Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
ICSH iShares Ultra Short Duration Bond Active ETF | Ultrashort Bond | 30% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | Leveraged Bonds, Leveraged | 30% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | Leveraged Equities, S&P 500 | 40% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in HFEA Smoothed, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is never rebalanced.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Dec 13, 2013, corresponding to the inception date of ICSH
Returns By Period
As of Apr 3, 2026, the HFEA Smoothed returned -12.97% Year-To-Date and 15.36% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -3.43% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 16.08% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio HFEA Smoothed | 0.23% | -10.59% | -12.97% | -10.83% | 28.60% | 31.13% | 11.97% | 15.36% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | 1.59% | -8.80% | -1.52% | -8.84% | -15.76% | -23.39% | -29.12% | -15.69% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 0.21% | -11.26% | -13.96% | -11.61% | 31.98% | 37.93% | 17.21% | 25.67% |
ICSH iShares Ultra Short Duration Bond Active ETF | 0.06% | 0.20% | 0.85% | 1.93% | 4.51% | 5.23% | 3.57% | 2.72% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Dec 16, 2013, HFEA Smoothed's average daily return is +0.08%, while the average monthly return is +1.65%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 3.5 years.
Historically, 62% of months were positive and 38% were negative. The best month was Nov 2023 with a return of +24.6%, while the worst month was Apr 2022 at -23.7%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 5 months.
On a daily basis, HFEA Smoothed closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +24.0%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -15.2%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.10% | -3.14% | -14.82% | 2.30% | -12.97% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 6.14% | -4.22% | -16.09% | -7.91% | 15.90% | 13.69% | 5.33% | 4.56% | 9.35% | 5.44% | -0.62% | -0.95% | 29.38% |
| 2024 | 2.58% | 12.30% | 7.85% | -12.16% | 12.84% | 8.90% | 1.94% | 4.74% | 4.79% | -4.20% | 15.86% | -8.13% | 53.03% |
| 2023 | 16.08% | -8.28% | 8.55% | 2.88% | -0.99% | 15.32% | 6.88% | -5.97% | -13.61% | -7.35% | 24.56% | 12.23% | 52.66% |
| 2022 | -14.35% | -8.52% | 5.22% | -23.71% | -2.59% | -20.33% | 22.22% | -12.10% | -23.54% | 15.01% | 13.11% | -14.91% | -55.62% |
| 2021 | -5.35% | 0.51% | 5.75% | 12.95% | 0.97% | 7.15% | 7.09% | 6.49% | -12.22% | 17.69% | -0.97% | 8.94% | 56.23% |
Benchmark Metrics
HFEA Smoothed has an annualized alpha of 1.23%, beta of 1.58, and R² of 0.71 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since December 16, 2013.
- This portfolio captured 216.05% of S&P 500 Index gains and 170.38% of its losses — amplifying both gains and losses, but participating more in upside than downside.
- Beta of 1.58 means this portfolio moves significantly more than S&P 500 Index — expect amplified gains in rallies and amplified losses in downturns.
- Alpha
- 1.23%
- Beta
- 1.58
- R²
- 0.71
- Upside Capture
- 216.05%
- Downside Capture
- 170.38%
Expense Ratio
HFEA Smoothed has an expense ratio of 0.72%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
HFEA Smoothed ranks 15 for risk / return — in the bottom 15% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 0.59 | 0.88 | -0.29 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 1.12 | 1.37 | -0.24 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.17 | 1.21 | -0.04 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 1.02 | 1.39 | -0.37 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 3.92 | 6.43 | -2.51 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | 4 | -0.47 | -0.45 | 0.95 | -0.59 | -0.94 |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 35 | 0.59 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.03 | 4.06 |
ICSH iShares Ultra Short Duration Bond Active ETF | 100 | 11.08 | 26.38 | 6.68 | 45.39 | 285.14 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
HFEA Smoothed provided a 2.92% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.92% | 2.92% | 3.23% | 2.58% | 1.19% | 0.19% | 1.08% | 1.23% | 1.36% | 0.53% | 0.31% | 0.30% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | 3.96% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UPRO ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 | 1.01% | 0.84% | 0.93% | 0.74% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.41% | 0.63% | 0.00% | 0.12% | 0.34% |
ICSH iShares Ultra Short Duration Bond Active ETF | 4.42% | 4.55% | 5.24% | 4.78% | 1.66% | 0.42% | 1.21% | 2.61% | 2.20% | 1.36% | 0.88% | 0.54% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the HFEA Smoothed. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the HFEA Smoothed was 61.27%, occurring on Oct 14, 2022. Recovery took 491 trading sessions.
The current HFEA Smoothed drawdown is 17.30%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -61.27% | Dec 28, 2021 | 202 | Oct 14, 2022 | 491 | Sep 30, 2024 | 693 |
| -48.73% | Feb 20, 2020 | 20 | Mar 18, 2020 | 200 | Dec 31, 2020 | 220 |
| -45.16% | Dec 9, 2024 | 82 | Apr 8, 2025 | 74 | Jul 25, 2025 | 156 |
| -32.94% | Jan 29, 2018 | 229 | Dec 24, 2018 | 120 | Jun 18, 2019 | 349 |
| -25.05% | Jan 13, 2026 | 53 | Mar 30, 2026 | — | — | — |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 3 assets, with an effective number of assets of 2.94, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | ICSH | TMF | UPRO | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.06 | -0.16 | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| ICSH | 0.06 | 1.00 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| TMF | -0.16 | 0.15 | 1.00 | -0.16 | 0.21 |
| UPRO | 1.00 | 0.06 | -0.16 | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Portfolio | 0.85 | 0.07 | 0.21 | 0.85 | 1.00 |