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Bear market strategy
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


USD=X 25.00%SPXU 25.00%BRK-B 25.00%SPXL 25.00%CurrencyCurrencyEquityEquity

S&P 500 Index

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Bear market strategy, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.


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The earliest data available for this chart is Jun 25, 2009, corresponding to the inception date of SPXU

Returns By Period

As of Apr 4, 2026, the Bear market strategy returned -0.05% Year-To-Date and 2.35% of annualized return in the last 10 years.


1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
0.11%-4.18%-3.84%-1.98%21.98%16.86%10.37%12.29%
Portfolio
Bear market strategy
0.00%1.06%-0.05%-0.26%-2.78%4.73%2.99%2.35%
USD=X
USD Cash
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500
-0.18%12.57%12.16%6.43%-48.63%-36.94%-31.76%-39.94%
BRK-B
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
-0.24%-2.08%-5.03%-4.29%-9.96%15.44%13.08%12.79%
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares
0.24%-12.96%-13.85%-11.34%54.36%38.15%17.57%25.75%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jun 26, 2009, Bear market strategy's average daily return is +0.01%, while the average monthly return is +0.21%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 27.5 years.

Historically, 58% of months were positive and 42% were negative. The best month was Aug 2020 with a return of +5.9%, while the worst month was Mar 2020 at -14.1%. The longest winning streak lasted 8 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 7 months.

On a daily basis, Bear market strategy closed higher 36% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 16, 2020 with a return of +4.8%, while the worst single day was Mar 24, 2020 at -10.5%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
2026-1.20%1.01%0.13%0.03%-0.05%
20250.71%2.21%1.15%-4.18%-0.93%0.56%-0.55%1.73%0.68%-1.36%1.54%-0.53%0.87%
20241.83%2.37%1.62%-1.14%0.58%-0.18%1.74%1.88%-0.93%-0.58%2.05%-2.21%7.12%
20230.58%-1.34%0.16%1.67%-0.79%2.65%1.12%0.22%-0.61%-0.79%1.81%1.16%5.90%
20221.22%0.53%0.33%-0.84%-2.57%-0.17%3.29%-3.59%-2.12%2.01%2.93%-3.48%-2.71%
2021-1.00%1.17%1.85%2.28%1.21%-0.63%-0.15%1.02%-2.02%1.59%-1.38%3.04%7.07%

Benchmark Metrics

Bear market strategy has an annualized alpha of 1.46%, beta of 0.09, and R² of 0.04 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since June 26, 2009.

  • This portfolio participated in 37.37% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 23.03% of its upside — more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
  • Beta of 0.09 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.04 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
  • R² of 0.04 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.

Alpha
1.46%
Beta
0.09
0.04
Upside Capture
23.03%
Downside Capture
37.37%

Expense Ratio

Bear market strategy has an expense ratio of 0.49%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Bear market strategy ranks 6 for risk / return — in the bottom 6% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.


Bear market strategy Risk / Return Rank: 66
Overall Rank
Bear market strategy Sharpe Ratio Rank: 22
Sharpe Ratio Rank
Bear market strategy Sortino Ratio Rank: 22
Sortino Ratio Rank
Bear market strategy Omega Ratio Rank: 11
Omega Ratio Rank
Bear market strategy Calmar Ratio Rank: 1414
Calmar Ratio Rank
Bear market strategy Martin Ratio Rank: 1111
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference

Sharpe ratio

Return per unit of total volatility

-0.36

0.88

-1.24

Sortino ratio

Return per unit of downside risk

-0.40

1.37

-1.76

Omega ratio

Gain probability vs. loss probability

0.93

1.21

-0.27

Calmar ratio

Return relative to maximum drawdown

0.88

1.39

-0.51

Martin ratio

Return relative to average drawdown

2.06

6.43

-4.37


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

Risk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
USD=X
USD Cash
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500
2-0.76-0.940.87-0.65-0.76
BRK-B
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
15-0.62-0.730.90-0.70-1.19
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares
340.601.171.181.044.10

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Bear market strategy Sharpe ratios as of Apr 4, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: -0.36
  • 5-Year: 0.47
  • 10-Year: 0.27
  • All Time: 0.29

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 0.99 to 1.69, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio places it in the bottom 25%. This suggests weaker risk-adjusted returns than most portfolios, possibly due to lower returns, higher volatility, or both. It may be worth reviewing the allocation. You can use the Portfolio Optimization tool to explore options for improving the Sharpe ratio.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Bear market strategy compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

Bear market strategy provided a 1.50% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
Portfolio1.50%1.93%2.57%2.01%0.18%0.03%0.23%0.74%0.61%1.00%
USD=X
USD Cash
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
SPXU
ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500
5.23%7.02%9.53%7.06%0.39%0.00%0.70%2.14%1.41%0.10%
BRK-B
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
SPXL
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares
0.78%0.69%0.74%0.98%0.32%0.11%0.22%0.84%1.02%3.88%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Bear market strategy. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Bear market strategy was 19.88%, occurring on May 13, 2020. Recovery took 664 trading sessions.

The current Bear market strategy drawdown is 3.44%.


Depth

Start

To Bottom

Bottom

To Recover

End

Total

-19.88%Mar 24, 202051May 13, 2020664Mar 8, 2022715
-12.79%Mar 1, 2011294Dec 19, 2011512May 14, 2013806
-8.55%Mar 15, 2022368Mar 17, 2023312Jan 23, 2024680
-7.76%Dec 9, 2014284Sep 18, 2015763Oct 20, 20171047
-7.55%Jan 21, 202053Mar 13, 202010Mar 23, 202063

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 4 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

BenchmarkUSD=XBRK-BSPXUSPXLPortfolio
Benchmark1.000.000.68-1.001.000.57
USD=X0.000.000.000.000.000.00
BRK-B0.680.001.00-0.630.630.79
SPXU-1.000.00-0.631.00-0.99-0.55
SPXL1.000.000.63-0.991.000.56
Portfolio0.570.000.79-0.550.561.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Jun 26, 2009