Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | Financial Services | 25% |
SPXL Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares | Leveraged Equities, S&P 500 | 25% |
SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 | Leveraged Equities, Leveraged | 25% |
USD=X USD Cash | 25% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Bear market strategy, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Jun 25, 2009, corresponding to the inception date of SPXU
Returns By Period
As of Apr 4, 2026, the Bear market strategy returned -0.05% Year-To-Date and 2.35% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -4.18% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 21.98% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio Bear market strategy | 0.00% | 1.06% | -0.05% | -0.26% | -2.78% | 4.73% | 2.99% | 2.35% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
USD=X USD Cash | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 | -0.18% | 12.57% | 12.16% | 6.43% | -48.63% | -36.94% | -31.76% | -39.94% |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | -0.24% | -2.08% | -5.03% | -4.29% | -9.96% | 15.44% | 13.08% | 12.79% |
SPXL Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares | 0.24% | -12.96% | -13.85% | -11.34% | 54.36% | 38.15% | 17.57% | 25.75% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Jun 26, 2009, Bear market strategy's average daily return is +0.01%, while the average monthly return is +0.21%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 27.5 years.
Historically, 58% of months were positive and 42% were negative. The best month was Aug 2020 with a return of +5.9%, while the worst month was Mar 2020 at -14.1%. The longest winning streak lasted 8 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 7 months.
On a daily basis, Bear market strategy closed higher 36% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 16, 2020 with a return of +4.8%, while the worst single day was Mar 24, 2020 at -10.5%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.20% | 1.01% | 0.13% | 0.03% | -0.05% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 0.71% | 2.21% | 1.15% | -4.18% | -0.93% | 0.56% | -0.55% | 1.73% | 0.68% | -1.36% | 1.54% | -0.53% | 0.87% |
| 2024 | 1.83% | 2.37% | 1.62% | -1.14% | 0.58% | -0.18% | 1.74% | 1.88% | -0.93% | -0.58% | 2.05% | -2.21% | 7.12% |
| 2023 | 0.58% | -1.34% | 0.16% | 1.67% | -0.79% | 2.65% | 1.12% | 0.22% | -0.61% | -0.79% | 1.81% | 1.16% | 5.90% |
| 2022 | 1.22% | 0.53% | 0.33% | -0.84% | -2.57% | -0.17% | 3.29% | -3.59% | -2.12% | 2.01% | 2.93% | -3.48% | -2.71% |
| 2021 | -1.00% | 1.17% | 1.85% | 2.28% | 1.21% | -0.63% | -0.15% | 1.02% | -2.02% | 1.59% | -1.38% | 3.04% | 7.07% |
Benchmark Metrics
Bear market strategy has an annualized alpha of 1.46%, beta of 0.09, and R² of 0.04 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since June 26, 2009.
- This portfolio participated in 37.37% of S&P 500 Index downside but only 23.03% of its upside — more exposed to losses than it benefited from rallies.
- Beta of 0.09 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.04 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R² of 0.04 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 1.46%
- Beta
- 0.09
- R²
- 0.04
- Upside Capture
- 23.03%
- Downside Capture
- 37.37%
Expense Ratio
Bear market strategy has an expense ratio of 0.49%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Bear market strategy ranks 6 for risk / return — in the bottom 6% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.36 | 0.88 | -1.24 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.40 | 1.37 | -1.76 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.93 | 1.21 | -0.27 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.88 | 1.39 | -0.51 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 2.06 | 6.43 | -4.37 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD=X USD Cash | — | — | — | — | — | — |
SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 | 2 | -0.76 | -0.94 | 0.87 | -0.65 | -0.76 |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 15 | -0.62 | -0.73 | 0.90 | -0.70 | -1.19 |
SPXL Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares | 34 | 0.60 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.04 | 4.10 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Bear market strategy provided a 1.50% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 1.50% | 1.93% | 2.57% | 2.01% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.23% | 0.74% | 0.61% | 1.00% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||
USD=X USD Cash | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SPXU ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 | 5.23% | 7.02% | 9.53% | 7.06% | 0.39% | 0.00% | 0.70% | 2.14% | 1.41% | 0.10% |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
SPXL Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares | 0.78% | 0.69% | 0.74% | 0.98% | 0.32% | 0.11% | 0.22% | 0.84% | 1.02% | 3.88% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Bear market strategy. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Bear market strategy was 19.88%, occurring on May 13, 2020. Recovery took 664 trading sessions.
The current Bear market strategy drawdown is 3.44%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -19.88% | Mar 24, 2020 | 51 | May 13, 2020 | 664 | Mar 8, 2022 | 715 |
| -12.79% | Mar 1, 2011 | 294 | Dec 19, 2011 | 512 | May 14, 2013 | 806 |
| -8.55% | Mar 15, 2022 | 368 | Mar 17, 2023 | 312 | Jan 23, 2024 | 680 |
| -7.76% | Dec 9, 2014 | 284 | Sep 18, 2015 | 763 | Oct 20, 2017 | 1047 |
| -7.55% | Jan 21, 2020 | 53 | Mar 13, 2020 | 10 | Mar 23, 2020 | 63 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 4 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | USD=X | BRK-B | SPXU | SPXL | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 | -1.00 | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| USD=X | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| BRK-B | 0.68 | 0.00 | 1.00 | -0.63 | 0.63 | 0.79 |
| SPXU | -1.00 | 0.00 | -0.63 | 1.00 | -0.99 | -0.55 |
| SPXL | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 | -0.99 | 1.00 | 0.56 |
| Portfolio | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.79 | -0.55 | 0.56 | 1.00 |