VGLT vs. TMF
VGLT (Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - VGLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, VGLT returned -1.65%/yr vs -18.06%/yr for TMF. With a 0.98 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. VGLT charges 0.03%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
VGLT vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, VGLT achieves a -0.91% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -8.94% return. Over the past 10 years, VGLT has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of -1.65%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -18.06% annualized return.
VGLT
- 1D
- 0.00%
- 1M
- -1.21%
- 6M
- -1.56%
- YTD
- -0.91%
- 1Y
- 3.44%
- 3Y*
- -0.19%
- 5Y*
- -6.26%
- 10Y*
- -1.65%
TMF
- 1D
- -0.03%
- 1M
- -4.85%
- 6M
- -10.90%
- YTD
- -8.94%
- 1Y
- -4.05%
- 3Y*
- -19.45%
- 5Y*
- -32.83%
- 10Y*
- -18.06%
VGLT vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | -0.91% | 5.35% | -6.28% | 3.27% | -29.34% | -4.98% | 17.57% | 14.30% | -1.54% | 8.64% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -8.94% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between VGLT and TMF is 1.00 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Nov 24, 2009 | 0.98 |
The correlation between VGLT and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.98 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
VGLT vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
VGLT
TMF
VGLT vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| VGLT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.54 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.66 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.05 | 0.97 | +0.07 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.31 | -0.31 | +0.61 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.74 | -0.64 | +1.38 |
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Drawdowns
VGLT vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum VGLT drawdown since its inception was -46.18%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for VGLT and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| VGLT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -46.18% | -92.89% | +46.71% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -7.01% | -26.51% | +19.50% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -17.45% | -55.14% | +37.69% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -40.98% | -88.81% | +47.83% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -46.18% | -92.89% | +46.71% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -37.15% | -92.46% | +55.31% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -15.18% | -43.90% | +28.72% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 2.89% | 12.78% | -9.89% |
Volatility
VGLT vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) is 2.66%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 8.37%. This indicates that VGLT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| VGLT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 2.66% | 8.37% | -5.71% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 6.28% | 19.92% | -13.64% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 8.60% | 27.83% | -19.23% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 14.51% | 46.53% | -32.02% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 13.77% | 43.76% | -29.99% |
VGLT vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
VGLT has a 0.03% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
VGLT vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
VGLT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.66%, more than TMF's 4.34% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.34% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 4.66% | 4.44% | 4.33% | 3.33% | 2.84% | 1.82% | 2.15% | 2.46% | 2.71% | 2.55% | 2.69% | 3.21% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 1.00, VGLT and TMF move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (8.37%) compared to VGLT (2.66%). In terms of maximum drawdown, VGLT dropped -46.18% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, VGLT leads with -1.65% vs -18.06% for TMF. On fees, VGLT is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, VGLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.66%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, VGLT has performed better with a -1.65% return vs -18.06%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
VGLT is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
VGLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.66%, compared with 4.34% for TMF.
VGLT is categorized as Government Bonds, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. VGLT tracks Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: Vanguard and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.03% for VGLT and 1.01% for TMF.
VGLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.25 vs -0.29), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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