VGLT vs. TMF
VGLT (Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - VGLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index, while TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, VGLT returned -1.18%/yr vs -16.80%/yr for TMF. With a 0.98 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. VGLT charges 0.03%/yr vs 1.01%/yr for TMF.
Performance
VGLT vs. TMF - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, VGLT achieves a 0.54% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -3.67% return. Over the past 10 years, VGLT has outperformed TMF with an annualized return of -1.18%, while TMF has yielded a comparatively lower -16.80% annualized return.
VGLT
- 1D
- 0.49%
- 1M
- 3.15%
- YTD
- 0.54%
- 6M
- 0.39%
- 1Y
- 5.67%
- 3Y*
- -0.53%
- 5Y*
- -5.50%
- 10Y*
- -1.18%
TMF
- 1D
- 1.59%
- 1M
- 9.33%
- YTD
- -3.67%
- 6M
- -5.31%
- 1Y
- 2.45%
- 3Y*
- -20.43%
- 5Y*
- -31.09%
- 10Y*
- -16.80%
VGLT vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 0.54% | 5.35% | -6.28% | 3.27% | -29.34% | -4.98% | 17.57% | 14.30% | -1.54% | 8.64% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -3.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
Correlation
The correlation between VGLT and TMF is 1.00 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Nov 24, 2009 | 0.98 |
The correlation between VGLT and TMF has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.98 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
VGLT vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank
VGLT
TMF
VGLT vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| VGLT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.57 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.68 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.11 | 1.04 | +0.08 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.81 | 0.09 | +0.72 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 2.04 | 0.20 | +1.83 |
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Drawdowns
VGLT vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum VGLT drawdown since its inception was -46.18%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for VGLT and TMF.
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Drawdown Indicators
| VGLT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -46.18% | -92.89% | +46.71% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -7.01% | -26.51% | +19.50% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -17.68% | -56.31% | +38.63% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -40.98% | -88.81% | +47.83% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -46.18% | -92.89% | +46.71% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -36.23% | -92.03% | +55.80% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -15.10% | -43.72% | +28.62% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 2.79% | 12.06% | -9.27% |
Volatility
VGLT vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) is 2.23%, while Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a volatility of 7.00%. This indicates that VGLT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| VGLT | TMF | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 2.23% | 7.00% | -4.77% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 6.04% | 19.29% | -13.25% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 8.68% | 28.13% | -19.45% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 14.57% | 46.73% | -32.16% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 13.82% | 43.93% | -30.11% |
VGLT vs. TMF - Expense Ratio Comparison
VGLT has a 0.03% expense ratio, which is lower than TMF's 1.01% expense ratio.
Dividends
VGLT vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison
VGLT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.57%, more than TMF's 4.05% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.05% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 4.57% | 4.44% | 4.33% | 3.33% | 2.84% | 1.82% | 2.15% | 2.46% | 2.71% | 2.55% | 2.69% | 3.21% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 1.00, VGLT and TMF move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (7.00%) compared to VGLT (2.23%). In terms of maximum drawdown, VGLT dropped -46.18% vs TMF's -92.89%.
On 10-year performance, VGLT leads with -1.18% vs -16.80% for TMF. On fees, VGLT is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, VGLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.23%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, VGLT has performed better with a -1.18% return vs -16.80%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
VGLT is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
VGLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.57%, compared with 4.05% for TMF.
VGLT is categorized as Government Bonds, while TMF is Leveraged Bonds. VGLT tracks Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index, while TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: Vanguard and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.03% for VGLT and 1.01% for TMF.
VGLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.66 vs 0.09), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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