TRRKX vs. SPY

Last updated Jun 24, 2026

TRRKX (T. Rowe Price Retirement 2045 Fund) and SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) are both funds - TRRKX is a Target Retirement Date fund managed by T. Rowe Price, while SPY is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Over the past 10 years, TRRKX returned 11.43%/yr vs 15.53%/yr for SPY. Their correlation of 0.95 suggests significant overlap in exposure. TRRKX charges 0.63%/yr vs 0.09%/yr for SPY.

Performance

TRRKX vs. SPY - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in T. Rowe Price Retirement 2045 Fund (TRRKX) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, TRRKX achieves a 10.78% return, which is significantly higher than SPY's 8.15% return. Over the past 10 years, TRRKX has underperformed SPY with an annualized return of 11.43%, while SPY has yielded a comparatively higher 15.53% annualized return.

TRRKX

• 1D: -0.11%
• 1M: 1.22%
• YTD: 10.78%
• 6M: 10.13%
• 1Y: 19.83%
• 3Y*: 16.45%
• 5Y*: 7.74%
• 10Y*: 11.43%

SPY

• 1D: -1.45%
• 1M: -1.36%
• YTD: 8.15%
• 6M: 7.20%
• 1Y: 23.59%
• 3Y*: 20.68%
• 5Y*: 13.05%
• 10Y*: 15.53%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

TRRKX vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
TRRKX T. Rowe Price Retirement 2045 Fund	10.78%	14.20%	13.94%	20.52%	-19.03%	15.80%	18.64%	25.41%	-7.66%	22.42%
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF	8.15%	17.72%	24.89%	26.18%	-18.18%	28.73%	18.33%	31.22%	-4.57%	21.71%

Correlation

The correlation between TRRKX and SPY is 0.89, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.89
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.91
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.93
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.93
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jun 1, 2005	0.95

The correlation between TRRKX and SPY has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.89 to 0.95 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

TRRKX vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

TRRKX

TRRKX Risk / Return Rank: 40
TRRKX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 38
TRRKX Sortino Ratio Rank: 36
TRRKX Omega Ratio Rank: 40
TRRKX Calmar Ratio Rank: 38
TRRKX Martin Ratio Rank: 47

SPY

SPY Risk / Return Rank: 59
SPY Sharpe Ratio Rank: 58
SPY Sortino Ratio Rank: 56
SPY Omega Ratio Rank: 57
SPY Calmar Ratio Rank: 56
SPY Martin Ratio Rank: 67

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

TRRKX vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for T. Rowe Price Retirement 2045 Fund (TRRKX) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	TRRKX	SPY	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	1.67	1.90	-0.23
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	2.34	2.58	-0.25
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.31	1.34	-0.03
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	2.24	2.67	-0.43
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	9.19	11.92	-2.73

TRRKX vs. SPY - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current TRRKX Sharpe Ratio is 1.67, which is comparable to the SPY Sharpe Ratio of 1.90. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of TRRKX and SPY, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

TRRKX vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum TRRKX drawdown since its inception was -53.54%, roughly equal to the maximum SPY drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TRRKX and SPY.

Drawdown Indicators

	TRRKX	SPY	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-53.54%	-55.19%	+1.65%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-9.49%	-8.88%	-0.61%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-15.16%	-18.76%	+3.60%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-28.75%	-24.50%	-4.25%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-32.48%	-33.72%	+1.24%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-0.53%	-3.17%	+2.64%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-7.20%	-9.04%	+1.84%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	2.29%	1.98%	+0.31%

Volatility

TRRKX vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison

T. Rowe Price Retirement 2045 Fund (TRRKX) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) have volatilities of 4.63% and 4.87%, respectively, indicating that both stocks experience similar levels of price fluctuations. This suggests that the risk associated with both stocks, as measured by volatility, is nearly the same. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	TRRKX	SPY	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	4.63%	4.87%	-0.24%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	10.66%	9.85%	+0.81%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	12.74%	12.50%	+0.24%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	15.02%	17.15%	-2.13%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	15.37%	17.95%	-2.58%

TRRKX vs. SPY - Expense Ratio Comparison

TRRKX has a 0.63% expense ratio, which is higher than SPY's 0.09% expense ratio.

Dividends

TRRKX vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison

TRRKX has not paid dividends to shareholders, while SPY's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 1.03%.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF	1.03%	1.07%	1.21%	1.40%	1.65%	1.20%	1.52%	1.75%	2.04%	1.80%	2.03%	2.06%
TRRKX T. Rowe Price Retirement 2045 Fund	0.00%	0.00%	1.96%	4.40%	7.83%	5.58%	4.52%	5.94%	8.98%	3.52%	3.20%	4.25%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both TRRKX and SPY in my portfolio?

TRRKX and SPY have a correlation of 0.89, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, TRRKX or SPY?

SPY has higher volatility (4.87%) compared to TRRKX (4.63%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TRRKX dropped -53.54% vs SPY's -55.19%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

SPY currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.90 vs 1.67), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.