TMV vs. VOO
TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) and VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while VOO is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMV returned -0.80%/yr vs 15.56%/yr for VOO. At a 0.23 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. TMV charges 1.04%/yr vs 0.03%/yr for VOO.
Performance
TMV vs. VOO - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMV achieves a 4.73% return, which is significantly lower than VOO's 10.91% return. Over the past 10 years, TMV has underperformed VOO with an annualized return of -0.80%, while VOO has yielded a comparatively higher 15.56% annualized return.
TMV
- 1D
- 1.13%
- 1M
- -1.68%
- YTD
- 4.73%
- 6M
- 11.42%
- 1Y
- -4.33%
- 3Y*
- 12.83%
- 5Y*
- 19.12%
- 10Y*
- -0.80%
VOO
- 1D
- -0.70%
- 1M
- 5.04%
- YTD
- 10.91%
- 6M
- 10.93%
- 1Y
- 28.04%
- 3Y*
- 22.44%
- 5Y*
- 13.90%
- 10Y*
- 15.56%
TMV vs. VOO - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 4.73% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 10.91% | 17.82% | 24.98% | 26.32% | -18.17% | 28.79% | 18.32% | 31.37% | -4.50% | 21.77% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMV and VOO is -0.21, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.21 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.19 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.07 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.09 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 10, 2010 | 0.23 |
The correlation between TMV and VOO shifts across timeframes, from -0.21 (1 year) to 0.23 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMV vs. VOO — Risk / Return Rank
TMV
VOO
TMV vs. VOO - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| TMV | VOO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -2.54 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -3.26 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.00 | 1.43 | -0.43 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.20 | 3.16 | -3.37 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.40 | 14.73 | -15.12 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
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Sharpe Ratios by Period
| TMV | VOO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe Ratio (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.15 | 2.39 | -2.54 |
Sharpe Ratio (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.41 | 0.83 | -0.42 |
Sharpe Ratio (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.02 | 0.87 | -0.89 |
Sharpe Ratio (All Time)Calculated using the full available price history | -0.33 | 0.89 | -1.21 |
Drawdowns
TMV vs. VOO - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMV drawdown since its inception was -98.96%, which is greater than VOO's maximum drawdown of -33.99%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMV and VOO.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMV | VOO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -98.96% | -33.99% | -64.97% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -21.62% | -8.90% | -12.72% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -48.49% | -18.69% | -29.80% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -48.49% | -24.52% | -23.97% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -82.31% | -33.99% | -48.32% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -95.94% | -0.70% | -95.24% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -86.60% | -3.69% | -82.91% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.13% | 1.91% | +9.22% |
Volatility
TMV vs. VOO - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a higher volatility of 8.15% compared to Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) at 2.84%. This indicates that TMV's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than VOO based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMV | VOO | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.15% | 2.84% | +5.31% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.18% | 8.90% | +10.28% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 29.12% | 11.80% | +17.32% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 47.21% | 16.81% | +30.40% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 44.44% | 18.01% | +26.43% |
TMV vs. VOO - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMV has a 1.04% expense ratio, which is higher than VOO's 0.03% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMV vs. VOO - Dividend Comparison
TMV's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.62%, more than VOO's 1.03% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.62% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | 1.03% | 1.13% | 1.24% | 1.46% | 1.69% | 1.25% | 1.54% | 1.88% | 2.06% | 1.78% | 2.02% | 2.10% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMV and VOO have a correlation of -0.21, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMV has higher volatility (8.15%) compared to VOO (2.84%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMV dropped -98.96% vs VOO's -33.99%.
On 10-year performance, VOO leads with 15.56% vs -0.80% for TMV. On fees, VOO is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, VOO has been the lower-risk option at 2.84%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, VOO has performed better with a 15.56% return vs -0.80%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
VOO is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TMV has the higher dividend yield at 2.62%, compared with 1.03% for VOO.
TMV is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while VOO is S&P 500. TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%), while VOO tracks S&P 500 Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Vanguard. Their fees differ too: 1.04% for TMV and 0.03% for VOO.
VOO currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.39 vs -0.15), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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