TMF vs. VGLT
TMF (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X) and VGLT (Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (300%), while VGLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.56%/yr vs -1.10%/yr for VGLT. With a 0.98 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TMF charges 1.09%/yr vs 0.03%/yr for VGLT.
Performance
TMF vs. VGLT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -6.13% return, which is significantly lower than VGLT's -0.41% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed VGLT with an annualized return of -16.56%, while VGLT has yielded a comparatively higher -1.10% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.14%
- 1M
- 1.22%
- YTD
- -6.13%
- 6M
- -11.63%
- 1Y
- 0.90%
- 3Y*
- -20.78%
- 5Y*
- -30.52%
- 10Y*
- -16.56%
VGLT
- 1D
- -0.40%
- 1M
- 0.71%
- YTD
- -0.41%
- 6M
- -1.68%
- 1Y
- 5.25%
- 3Y*
- -0.72%
- 5Y*
- -5.30%
- 10Y*
- -1.10%
TMF vs. VGLT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | -6.13% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | -0.41% | 5.35% | -6.28% | 3.27% | -29.34% | -4.98% | 17.57% | 14.30% | -1.54% | 8.64% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and VGLT is 1.00 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Nov 25, 2009 | 0.98 |
The correlation between TMF and VGLT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.98 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. VGLT — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
VGLT
TMF vs. VGLT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF) and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| TMF | VGLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.56 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.66 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.03 | 1.10 | -0.08 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.03 | 0.75 | -0.72 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.08 | 1.96 | -1.88 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
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Sharpe Ratios by Period
| TMF | VGLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe Ratio (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.03 | 0.59 | -0.56 |
Sharpe Ratio (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.66 | -0.37 | -0.29 |
Sharpe Ratio (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.38 | -0.08 | -0.30 |
Sharpe Ratio (All Time)Calculated using the full available price history | -0.14 | 0.19 | -0.32 |
Drawdowns
TMF vs. VGLT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than VGLT's maximum drawdown of -46.18%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and VGLT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | VGLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -46.18% | -46.71% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -7.01% | -19.50% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -56.31% | -17.68% | -38.63% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -40.98% | -47.83% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -46.18% | -46.71% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.23% | -36.83% | -55.40% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.63% | -15.06% | -28.57% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.49% | 2.68% | +8.81% |
Volatility
TMF vs. VGLT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.09% compared to Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) at 2.59%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than VGLT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | VGLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.09% | 2.59% | +5.50% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.01% | 5.94% | +13.07% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.76% | 8.88% | +19.88% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.75% | 14.58% | +32.17% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.92% | 13.81% | +30.11% |
TMF vs. VGLT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.09% expense ratio, which is higher than VGLT's 0.03% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. VGLT - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.15%, less than VGLT's 4.61% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bull 3X | 4.15% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 4.61% | 4.44% | 4.33% | 3.33% | 2.84% | 1.82% | 2.15% | 2.46% | 2.71% | 2.55% | 2.69% | 3.21% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 1.00, TMF and VGLT move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (8.09%) compared to VGLT (2.59%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs VGLT's -46.18%.
On 10-year performance, VGLT leads with -1.10% vs -16.56% for TMF. On fees, VGLT is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, VGLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.59%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, VGLT has performed better with a -1.10% return vs -16.56%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
VGLT is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 1.09% for TMF.
VGLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.61%, compared with 4.15% for TMF.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while VGLT is Government Bonds. TMF tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (300%), while VGLT tracks Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Vanguard. Their fees differ too: 1.09% for TMF and 0.03% for VGLT.
VGLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.59 vs 0.03), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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