TMF vs. VGLT
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and VGLT (Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while VGLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.87%/yr vs -1.20%/yr for VGLT. With a 0.98 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.03%/yr for VGLT.
Performance
TMF vs. VGLT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -4.67% return, which is significantly lower than VGLT's 0.49% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed VGLT with an annualized return of -16.87%, while VGLT has yielded a comparatively higher -1.20% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -0.62%
- 1M
- 4.96%
- YTD
- -4.67%
- 6M
- -5.95%
- 1Y
- -2.80%
- 3Y*
- -21.07%
- 5Y*
- -31.33%
- 10Y*
- -16.87%
VGLT
- 1D
- 0.15%
- 1M
- 2.04%
- YTD
- 0.49%
- 6M
- 0.38%
- 1Y
- 4.08%
- 3Y*
- -0.75%
- 5Y*
- -5.58%
- 10Y*
- -1.20%
TMF vs. VGLT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -4.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 0.49% | 5.35% | -6.28% | 3.27% | -29.34% | -4.98% | 17.57% | 14.30% | -1.54% | 8.64% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and VGLT is 0.99 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Nov 24, 2009 | 0.98 |
The correlation between TMF and VGLT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.98 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. VGLT — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
VGLT
TMF vs. VGLT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | VGLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.58 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.69 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.08 | -0.08 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.11 | 0.59 | -0.69 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.23 | 1.45 | -1.68 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. VGLT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than VGLT's maximum drawdown of -46.18%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and VGLT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | VGLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -46.18% | -46.71% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -7.01% | -19.50% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -56.09% | -17.68% | -38.41% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -40.98% | -47.83% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -46.18% | -46.71% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.11% | -36.26% | -55.85% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.76% | -15.12% | -28.64% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.26% | 2.82% | +9.44% |
Volatility
TMF vs. VGLT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 6.50% compared to Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) at 2.08%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than VGLT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | VGLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 6.50% | 2.08% | +4.42% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.35% | 6.07% | +13.28% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.91% | 8.61% | +19.30% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.59% | 14.53% | +32.06% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.86% | 13.80% | +30.06% |
TMF vs. VGLT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than VGLT's 0.03% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. VGLT - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.09%, less than VGLT's 4.57% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.09% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 4.57% | 4.44% | 4.33% | 3.33% | 2.84% | 1.82% | 2.15% | 2.46% | 2.71% | 2.55% | 2.69% | 3.21% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.99, TMF and VGLT move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (6.50%) compared to VGLT (2.08%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs VGLT's -46.18%.
On 10-year performance, VGLT leads with -1.20% vs -16.87% for TMF. On fees, VGLT is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, VGLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.08%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, VGLT has performed better with a -1.20% return vs -16.87%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
VGLT is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
VGLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.57%, compared with 4.09% for TMF.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while VGLT is Government Bonds. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while VGLT tracks Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Vanguard. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.03% for VGLT.
VGLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.48 vs -0.10), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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