TMF vs. VGLT
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and VGLT (Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while VGLT is a Government Bonds fund tracking the Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.90%/yr vs -1.58%/yr for VGLT. With a 0.98 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.03%/yr for VGLT.
Performance
TMF vs. VGLT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -10.63% return, which is significantly lower than VGLT's -1.48% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed VGLT with an annualized return of -17.90%, while VGLT has yielded a comparatively higher -1.58% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.85%
- 1M
- -5.74%
- 6M
- -11.74%
- YTD
- -10.63%
- 1Y
- -5.83%
- 3Y*
- -21.26%
- 5Y*
- -33.16%
- 10Y*
- -17.90%
VGLT
- 1D
- -0.57%
- 1M
- -1.51%
- 6M
- -1.88%
- YTD
- -1.48%
- 1Y
- 2.85%
- 3Y*
- -0.92%
- 5Y*
- -6.40%
- 10Y*
- -1.58%
TMF vs. VGLT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -10.63% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | -1.48% | 5.35% | -6.28% | 3.27% | -29.34% | -4.98% | 17.57% | 14.30% | -1.54% | 8.64% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and VGLT is 1.00 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 1.00 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Nov 24, 2009 | 0.98 |
The correlation between TMF and VGLT has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.98 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. VGLT — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
VGLT
TMF vs. VGLT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | VGLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -0.55 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -0.66 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.99 | 1.06 | -0.07 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.22 | 0.41 | -0.63 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.46 | 0.99 | -1.44 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. VGLT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than VGLT's maximum drawdown of -46.18%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and VGLT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | VGLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -46.18% | -46.71% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -7.01% | -19.50% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -17.45% | -37.69% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -40.98% | -47.83% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -46.18% | -46.71% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.60% | -37.51% | -55.09% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.91% | -15.19% | -28.72% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.82% | 2.90% | +9.92% |
Volatility
TMF vs. VGLT - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.51% compared to Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) at 2.71%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than VGLT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | VGLT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.51% | 2.71% | +5.80% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.94% | 6.29% | +13.65% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.62% | 8.54% | +19.08% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.54% | 14.51% | +32.03% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.72% | 13.76% | +29.96% |
TMF vs. VGLT - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than VGLT's 0.03% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. VGLT - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.42%, less than VGLT's 4.68% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.42% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VGLT Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF | 4.68% | 4.44% | 4.33% | 3.33% | 2.84% | 1.82% | 2.15% | 2.46% | 2.71% | 2.55% | 2.69% | 3.21% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 1.00, TMF and VGLT move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (8.51%) compared to VGLT (2.71%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs VGLT's -46.18%.
On 10-year performance, VGLT leads with -1.58% vs -17.90% for TMF. On fees, VGLT is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, VGLT has been the lower-risk option at 2.71%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, VGLT has performed better with a -1.58% return vs -17.90%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
VGLT is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
VGLT has the higher dividend yield at 4.68%, compared with 4.42% for TMF.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while VGLT is Government Bonds. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while VGLT tracks Bloomberg U.S. Long Treasury Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and Vanguard. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.03% for VGLT.
VGLT currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.34 vs -0.21), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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