TMF vs. SPY
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while SPY is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.47%/yr vs 15.07%/yr for SPY. Their -0.24 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.09%/yr for SPY.
Performance
TMF vs. SPY - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -16.67% return, which is significantly lower than SPY's 10.13% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed SPY with an annualized return of -18.47%, while SPY has yielded a comparatively higher 15.07% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -2.08%
- 1M
- -12.05%
- 6M
- -15.79%
- YTD
- -16.67%
- 1Y
- -18.44%
- 3Y*
- -20.63%
- 5Y*
- -34.74%
- 10Y*
- -18.47%
- ALL TIME*
- -6.68%
SPY
- 1D
- 0.72%
- 1M
- 0.30%
- 6M
- 8.53%
- YTD
- 10.13%
- 1Y
- 21.49%
- 3Y*
- 19.32%
- 5Y*
- 12.76%
- 10Y*
- 15.07%
- ALL TIME*
- 10.79%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $37.27B | $35.99B | $39.23B | |
| $161.82M | $130.43M | $127.82M |
TMF vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -16.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 10.13% | 17.72% | 24.89% | 26.18% | -18.18% | 28.73% | 18.33% | 31.22% | -4.57% | 21.71% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and SPY is 0.22, which is low. Their historical price movements had little consistent relationship.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | 0.22 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | 0.17 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | 0.09 |
Correlation (10Y) Provides a long-term view across more market conditions. | -0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.24 |
The correlation between TMF and SPY shifts across timeframes, from -0.24 (all time) to 0.22 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
SPY
TMF vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -2.07 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.75 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.93 | 1.27 | -0.34 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.53 | 2.20 | -2.73 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -1.07 | 9.40 | -10.47 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -93.10%, which is greater than SPY's maximum drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and SPY.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -93.10% | -55.19% | -37.91% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -28.69% | -8.88% | -19.81% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -50.64% | -18.76% | -31.88% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -89.14% | -24.50% | -64.64% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -93.10% | -33.72% | -59.38% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -93.10% | -1.40% | -91.70% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -44.07% | -9.01% | -35.06% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 14.10% | 2.08% | +12.02% |
Volatility
TMF vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 7.21% compared to State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at 3.58%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than SPY based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.21% | 3.58% | +3.63% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.98% | 10.14% | +9.84% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.35% | 12.89% | +14.46% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.36% | 17.18% | +29.18% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.70% | 17.95% | +25.75% |
TMF vs. SPY - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than SPY's 0.09% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.74%, more than SPY's 1.01% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 1.01% | 1.07% | 1.21% | 1.40% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 1.52% | 1.75% | 2.04% | 1.80% | 2.03% | 2.06% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.74% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and SPY have a correlation of 0.22, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (7.21%) compared to SPY (3.58%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -93.10% vs SPY's -55.19%.
On 10-year performance, SPY leads with 15.07% vs -18.47% for TMF. On fees, SPY is cheaper at 0.09% per year. On volatility, SPY has been the lower-risk option at 3.58%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, SPY has performed better with a 15.07% return vs -18.47%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SPY is cheaper with a 0.09% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.74%, compared with 1.01% for SPY.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while SPY is S&P 500. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while SPY tracks S&P 500 Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and State Street. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.09% for SPY.
SPY currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.52 vs -0.55), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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