TMF vs. SPY
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while SPY is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.80%/yr vs 15.58%/yr for SPY. At a correlation of -0.25, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.09%/yr for SPY.
Performance
TMF vs. SPY - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -3.67% return, which is significantly lower than SPY's 10.33% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed SPY with an annualized return of -16.80%, while SPY has yielded a comparatively higher 15.58% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- 1.59%
- 1M
- 9.33%
- YTD
- -3.67%
- 6M
- -5.31%
- 1Y
- 2.45%
- 3Y*
- -20.43%
- 5Y*
- -31.09%
- 10Y*
- -16.80%
SPY
- 1D
- -0.60%
- 1M
- 1.51%
- YTD
- 10.33%
- 6M
- 11.16%
- 1Y
- 25.93%
- 3Y*
- 20.91%
- 5Y*
- 13.74%
- 10Y*
- 15.58%
TMF vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -3.67% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 10.33% | 17.72% | 24.89% | 26.18% | -18.18% | 28.73% | 18.33% | 31.22% | -4.57% | 21.71% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and SPY is 0.22, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.22 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.07 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.25 |
The correlation between TMF and SPY shifts across timeframes, from -0.25 (all time) to 0.22 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
SPY
TMF vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -2.02 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.53 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.04 | 1.38 | -0.35 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.09 | 2.93 | -2.84 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.20 | 13.24 | -13.04 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than SPY's maximum drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and SPY.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -55.19% | -37.70% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -8.88% | -17.63% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -56.31% | -18.76% | -37.55% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -24.50% | -64.31% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -33.72% | -59.17% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.03% | -1.22% | -90.81% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.72% | -9.04% | -34.68% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.06% | 1.97% | +10.09% |
Volatility
TMF vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 7.00% compared to State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at 4.48%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than SPY based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.00% | 4.48% | +2.52% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.29% | 9.68% | +9.61% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.13% | 12.36% | +15.77% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.73% | 17.14% | +29.59% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.93% | 17.98% | +25.95% |
TMF vs. SPY - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than SPY's 0.09% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.05%, more than SPY's 0.98% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 0.98% | 1.07% | 1.21% | 1.40% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 1.52% | 1.75% | 2.04% | 1.80% | 2.03% | 2.06% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.05% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and SPY have a correlation of 0.22, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (7.00%) compared to SPY (4.48%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs SPY's -55.19%.
On 10-year performance, SPY leads with 15.58% vs -16.80% for TMF. On fees, SPY is cheaper at 0.09% per year. On volatility, SPY has been the lower-risk option at 4.48%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, SPY has performed better with a 15.58% return vs -16.80%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SPY is cheaper with a 0.09% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.05%, compared with 0.98% for SPY.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while SPY is S&P 500. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while SPY tracks S&P 500 Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and State Street. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.09% for SPY.
SPY currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.11 vs 0.09), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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