TMF vs. SPY
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while SPY is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -18.06%/yr vs 15.22%/yr for SPY. At a correlation of -0.25, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.09%/yr for SPY.
Performance
TMF vs. SPY - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -8.94% return, which is significantly lower than SPY's 11.30% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed SPY with an annualized return of -18.06%, while SPY has yielded a comparatively higher 15.22% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -0.03%
- 1M
- -4.85%
- 6M
- -10.90%
- YTD
- -8.94%
- 1Y
- -4.05%
- 3Y*
- -19.45%
- 5Y*
- -32.83%
- 10Y*
- -18.06%
SPY
- 1D
- 0.43%
- 1M
- 2.59%
- 6M
- 9.35%
- YTD
- 11.30%
- 1Y
- 22.40%
- 3Y*
- 20.99%
- 5Y*
- 13.15%
- 10Y*
- 15.22%
TMF vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -8.94% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 11.30% | 17.72% | 24.89% | 26.18% | -18.18% | 28.73% | 18.33% | 31.22% | -4.57% | 21.71% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and SPY is 0.21, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.21 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.08 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | -0.25 |
The correlation between TMF and SPY shifts across timeframes, from -0.25 (all time) to 0.21 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
SPY
TMF vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -2.05 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.66 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 0.97 | 1.32 | -0.34 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.31 | 2.48 | -2.79 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.64 | 10.83 | -11.47 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than SPY's maximum drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and SPY.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -55.19% | -37.70% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -8.88% | -17.63% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -55.14% | -18.76% | -36.38% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -24.50% | -64.31% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -33.72% | -59.17% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.46% | -0.35% | -92.11% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.90% | -9.03% | -34.87% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.78% | 2.03% | +10.75% |
Volatility
TMF vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.37% compared to State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at 4.52%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than SPY based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.37% | 4.52% | +3.85% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.92% | 9.98% | +9.94% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 27.83% | 12.55% | +15.28% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.53% | 17.16% | +29.37% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.76% | 17.92% | +25.84% |
TMF vs. SPY - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than SPY's 0.09% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.34%, more than SPY's 1.00% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 1.00% | 1.07% | 1.21% | 1.40% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 1.52% | 1.75% | 2.04% | 1.80% | 2.03% | 2.06% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.34% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TMF and SPY have a correlation of 0.21, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
TMF has higher volatility (8.37%) compared to SPY (4.52%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs SPY's -55.19%.
On 10-year performance, SPY leads with 15.22% vs -18.06% for TMF. On fees, SPY is cheaper at 0.09% per year. On volatility, SPY has been the lower-risk option at 4.52%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, SPY has performed better with a 15.22% return vs -18.06%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SPY is cheaper with a 0.09% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.34%, compared with 1.00% for SPY.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while SPY is S&P 500. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while SPY tracks S&P 500 Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and State Street. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.09% for SPY.
SPY currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.76 vs -0.29), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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