TMF vs. AGG
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and AGG (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while AGG is a Total Bond Market fund tracking the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.47%/yr vs 1.59%/yr for AGG. Their correlation of 0.87 suggests significant overlap in exposure. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.03%/yr for AGG.
Performance
TMF vs. AGG - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a 0.08% return, which is significantly lower than AGG's 0.96% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed AGG with an annualized return of -16.47%, while AGG has yielded a comparatively higher 1.59% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- 3.90%
- 1M
- 10.18%
- YTD
- 0.08%
- 6M
- -2.86%
- 1Y
- -0.04%
- 3Y*
- -19.78%
- 5Y*
- -30.25%
- 10Y*
- -16.47%
AGG
- 1D
- 0.49%
- 1M
- 1.10%
- YTD
- 0.96%
- 6M
- 0.82%
- 1Y
- 4.41%
- 3Y*
- 4.13%
- 5Y*
- 0.21%
- 10Y*
- 1.59%
TMF vs. AGG - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 0.08% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 0.96% | 7.19% | 1.31% | 5.65% | -13.02% | -1.77% | 7.48% | 8.46% | 0.09% | 3.55% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and AGG is 0.91, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.91 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.93 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.92 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.89 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009 | 0.87 |
The correlation between TMF and AGG has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.87 to 0.93 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. AGG — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
AGG
TMF vs. AGG - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TMF | AGG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.16 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.52 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.02 | 1.21 | -0.18 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.00 | 1.60 | -1.60 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.00 | 4.61 | -4.62 |
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Drawdowns
TMF vs. AGG - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than AGG's maximum drawdown of -18.43%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and AGG.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | AGG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -18.43% | -74.46% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -2.76% | -23.75% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -56.09% | -6.11% | -49.98% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -17.82% | -70.99% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -18.43% | -74.46% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -91.71% | -1.45% | -90.26% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.78% | -2.71% | -41.07% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 12.28% | 0.96% | +11.32% |
Volatility
TMF vs. AGG - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 7.26% compared to iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) at 1.19%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than AGG based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | AGG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 7.26% | 1.19% | +6.07% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.68% | 2.87% | +16.81% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.15% | 3.84% | +24.31% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.63% | 6.10% | +40.53% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.87% | 5.41% | +38.46% |
TMF vs. AGG - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than AGG's 0.03% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. AGG - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 3.95%, which matches AGG's 3.96% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 3.96% | 3.89% | 3.74% | 3.13% | 2.39% | 1.77% | 2.14% | 2.70% | 2.72% | 2.32% | 2.39% | 2.45% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 3.95% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.91, TMF and AGG move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (7.26%) compared to AGG (1.19%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs AGG's -18.43%.
On 10-year performance, AGG leads with 1.59% vs -16.47% for TMF. On fees, AGG is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, AGG has been the lower-risk option at 1.19%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, AGG has performed better with a 1.59% return vs -16.47%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
AGG is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
AGG has the higher dividend yield at 3.96%, compared with 3.95% for TMF.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while AGG is Total Bond Market. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while AGG tracks Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and iShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.03% for AGG.
AGG currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.16 vs -0.00), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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