TMF vs. AGG
TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and AGG (iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while AGG is a Total Bond Market fund tracking the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -16.56%/yr vs 1.57%/yr for AGG. Their correlation of 0.87 suggests significant overlap in exposure. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.03%/yr for AGG.
Performance
TMF vs. AGG - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -6.13% return, which is significantly lower than AGG's 0.25% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed AGG with an annualized return of -16.56%, while AGG has yielded a comparatively higher 1.57% annualized return.
TMF
- 1D
- -1.14%
- 1M
- 1.22%
- YTD
- -6.13%
- 6M
- -11.63%
- 1Y
- 0.90%
- 3Y*
- -20.78%
- 5Y*
- -30.52%
- 10Y*
- -16.56%
AGG
- 1D
- -0.21%
- 1M
- 0.24%
- YTD
- 0.25%
- 6M
- 0.09%
- 1Y
- 5.14%
- 3Y*
- 3.95%
- 5Y*
- 0.10%
- 10Y*
- 1.57%
TMF vs. AGG - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | -6.13% | -2.94% | -35.95% | -13.01% | -72.60% | -19.80% | 39.02% | 34.75% | -11.01% | 22.72% |
AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 0.25% | 7.19% | 1.31% | 5.65% | -13.02% | -1.77% | 7.48% | 8.46% | 0.09% | 3.55% |
Correlation
The correlation between TMF and AGG is 0.92, indicating a strong positive relationship between their price movements. Combining them offers limited diversification - they tend to fall together during downturns.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.92 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.93 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.92 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.89 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 17, 2009 | 0.87 |
The correlation between TMF and AGG has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.87 to 0.93 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TMF vs. AGG — Risk / Return Rank
TMF
AGG
TMF vs. AGG - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| TMF | AGG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.31 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -1.74 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.03 | 1.24 | -0.21 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.03 | 1.87 | -1.83 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.08 | 5.73 | -5.65 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
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Sharpe Ratios by Period
| TMF | AGG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe Ratio (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.03 | 1.34 | -1.31 |
Sharpe Ratio (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.66 | 0.02 | -0.67 |
Sharpe Ratio (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | -0.38 | 0.29 | -0.67 |
Sharpe Ratio (All Time)Calculated using the full available price history | -0.14 | 0.59 | -0.73 |
Drawdowns
TMF vs. AGG - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than AGG's maximum drawdown of -18.43%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and AGG.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TMF | AGG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -92.89% | -18.43% | -74.46% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -26.51% | -2.76% | -23.75% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -56.31% | -6.11% | -50.20% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -88.81% | -17.82% | -70.99% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -92.89% | -18.43% | -74.46% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -92.23% | -2.14% | -90.09% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -43.63% | -2.71% | -40.92% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 11.49% | 0.90% | +10.59% |
Volatility
TMF vs. AGG - Volatility Comparison
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has a higher volatility of 8.09% compared to iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) at 1.30%. This indicates that TMF's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than AGG based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TMF | AGG | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 8.09% | 1.30% | +6.79% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 19.01% | 2.74% | +16.27% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 28.76% | 3.85% | +24.91% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 46.75% | 6.09% | +40.66% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 43.92% | 5.40% | +38.52% |
TMF vs. AGG - Expense Ratio Comparison
TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than AGG's 0.03% expense ratio.
Dividends
TMF vs. AGG - Dividend Comparison
TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.15%, more than AGG's 3.99% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | 3.99% | 3.89% | 3.74% | 3.13% | 2.39% | 1.77% | 2.14% | 2.70% | 2.72% | 2.32% | 2.39% | 2.45% |
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF | 4.15% | 4.06% | 4.29% | 2.82% | 1.62% | 0.13% | 2.23% | 0.94% | 1.49% | 0.41% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.92, TMF and AGG move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMF has higher volatility (8.09%) compared to AGG (1.30%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs AGG's -18.43%.
On 10-year performance, AGG leads with 1.57% vs -16.56% for TMF. On fees, AGG is cheaper at 0.03% per year. On volatility, AGG has been the lower-risk option at 1.30%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, AGG has performed better with a 1.57% return vs -16.56%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
AGG is cheaper with a 0.03% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.
TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.15%, compared with 3.99% for AGG.
TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while AGG is Total Bond Market. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while AGG tracks Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. They also come from different issuers: Direxion and iShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.03% for AGG.
AGG currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.34 vs 0.03), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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