TBT vs. SPY
TBT (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury) and SPY (State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TBT is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, while SPY is a S&P 500 fund tracking the S&P 500 Index. Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TBT returned 2.32%/yr vs 15.53%/yr for SPY. At a 0.25 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. TBT charges 0.93%/yr vs 0.09%/yr for SPY.
Performance
TBT vs. SPY - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TBT achieves a 1.05% return, which is significantly lower than SPY's 8.15% return. Over the past 10 years, TBT has underperformed SPY with an annualized return of 2.32%, while SPY has yielded a comparatively higher 15.53% annualized return.
TBT
- 1D
- -0.51%
- 1M
- -4.25%
- YTD
- 1.05%
- 6M
- 2.51%
- 1Y
- -0.72%
- 3Y*
- 10.52%
- 5Y*
- 16.22%
- 10Y*
- 2.32%
SPY
- 1D
- -1.45%
- 1M
- -1.36%
- YTD
- 8.15%
- 6M
- 7.20%
- 1Y
- 23.59%
- 3Y*
- 20.68%
- 5Y*
- 13.05%
- 10Y*
- 15.53%
TBT vs. SPY - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 1.05% | -1.45% | 27.66% | -2.42% | 93.29% | 2.86% | -37.93% | -22.90% | 4.98% | -17.25% |
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 8.15% | 17.72% | 24.89% | 26.18% | -18.18% | 28.73% | 18.33% | 31.22% | -4.57% | 21.71% |
Correlation
The correlation between TBT and SPY is -0.24, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.24 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.18 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.08 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.08 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since May 1, 2008 | 0.25 |
The correlation between TBT and SPY shifts across timeframes, from -0.24 (1 year) to 0.25 (all time), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
TBT vs. SPY — Risk / Return Rank
TBT
SPY
TBT vs. SPY - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) and State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TBT | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | -1.94 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | -2.50 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.01 | 1.34 | -0.33 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | -0.05 | 2.67 | -2.71 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | -0.10 | 11.92 | -12.01 |
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Drawdowns
TBT vs. SPY - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TBT drawdown since its inception was -94.99%, which is greater than SPY's maximum drawdown of -55.19%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TBT and SPY.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TBT | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -94.99% | -55.19% | -39.80% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -14.89% | -8.88% | -6.01% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -33.83% | -18.76% | -15.07% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -33.83% | -24.50% | -9.33% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -65.09% | -33.72% | -31.37% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -85.92% | -3.17% | -82.75% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -77.34% | -9.04% | -68.30% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 7.55% | 1.98% | +5.57% |
Volatility
TBT vs. SPY - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) is 4.53%, while State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has a volatility of 4.87%. This indicates that TBT experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than SPY based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TBT | SPY | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.53% | 4.87% | -0.34% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 13.49% | 9.85% | +3.64% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 19.19% | 12.50% | +6.69% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 31.32% | 17.15% | +14.17% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 28.75% | 17.95% | +10.80% |
TBT vs. SPY - Expense Ratio Comparison
TBT has a 0.93% expense ratio, which is higher than SPY's 0.09% expense ratio.
Dividends
TBT vs. SPY - Dividend Comparison
TBT's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.95%, more than SPY's 1.03% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SPY State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF | 1.03% | 1.07% | 1.21% | 1.40% | 1.65% | 1.20% | 1.52% | 1.75% | 2.04% | 1.80% | 2.03% | 2.06% |
TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury | 2.95% | 3.21% | 4.64% | 4.98% | 0.42% | 0.00% | 0.32% | 2.12% | 0.99% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Frequently Asked Questions
TBT and SPY have a correlation of -0.24, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
SPY has higher volatility (4.87%) compared to TBT (4.53%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TBT dropped -94.99% vs SPY's -55.19%.
On 10-year performance, SPY leads with 15.53% vs 2.32% for TBT. On fees, SPY is cheaper at 0.09% per year. On volatility, TBT has been the lower-risk option at 4.53%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, SPY has performed better with a 15.53% return vs 2.32%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
SPY is cheaper with a 0.09% expense ratio, compared with 0.93% for TBT.
TBT has the higher dividend yield at 2.95%, compared with 1.03% for SPY.
TBT is categorized as Inverse Bonds, while SPY is S&P 500. TBT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index, while SPY tracks S&P 500 Index. They also come from different issuers: ProShares and State Street. Their fees differ too: 0.93% for TBT and 0.09% for SPY.
SPY currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.90 vs -0.04), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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