TBF vs. TMV
TBF (ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury) and TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) are both exchange-traded funds - TBF is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Index (-100%), while TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TBF returned 3.40%/yr vs 1.11%/yr for TMV. With a 0.99 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TBF charges 0.94%/yr vs 1.04%/yr for TMV.
Performance
TBF vs. TMV - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, TBF achieves a 4.15% return, which is significantly lower than TMV's 9.86% return. Over the past 10 years, TBF has outperformed TMV with an annualized return of 3.40%, while TMV has yielded a comparatively lower 1.11% annualized return.
TBF
- 1D
- 0.61%
- 1M
- 2.11%
- 6M
- 4.63%
- YTD
- 4.15%
- 1Y
- 3.02%
- 3Y*
- 8.15%
- 5Y*
- 11.60%
- 10Y*
- 3.40%
TMV
- 1D
- 1.93%
- 1M
- 6.11%
- 6M
- 11.42%
- YTD
- 9.86%
- 1Y
- 3.30%
- 3Y*
- 13.84%
- 5Y*
- 24.30%
- 10Y*
- 1.11%
TBF vs. TMV - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBF ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury | 4.15% | 1.27% | 16.33% | 2.43% | 42.37% | 1.33% | -19.35% | -10.96% | 3.26% | -8.46% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 9.86% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
Correlation
The correlation between TBF and TMV is 0.99 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Aug 20, 2009 | 0.99 |
The correlation between TBF and TMV has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.99 to 0.99 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TBF vs. TMV — Risk / Return Rank
TBF
TMV
TBF vs. TMV - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TBF | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.21 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.16 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.06 | 1.04 | +0.02 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.42 | 0.15 | +0.27 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.89 | 0.29 | +0.60 |
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Drawdowns
TBF vs. TMV - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TBF drawdown since its inception was -70.40%, smaller than the maximum TMV drawdown of -98.96%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TBF and TMV.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TBF | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -70.40% | -98.96% | +28.56% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -7.23% | -21.62% | +14.39% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -17.79% | -48.49% | +30.70% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -17.79% | -48.49% | +30.70% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -38.39% | -82.31% | +43.92% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -42.42% | -95.74% | +53.32% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -47.40% | -86.64% | +39.24% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 3.40% | 11.32% | -7.92% |
Volatility
TBF vs. TMV - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) is 2.88%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a volatility of 8.70%. This indicates that TBF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMV based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TBF | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 2.88% | 8.70% | -5.82% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 6.72% | 20.16% | -13.44% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 9.22% | 27.98% | -18.76% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 15.66% | 47.00% | -31.34% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 14.45% | 44.25% | -29.80% |
TBF vs. TMV - Expense Ratio Comparison
TBF has a 0.94% expense ratio, which is lower than TMV's 1.04% expense ratio.
Dividends
TBF vs. TMV - Dividend Comparison
TBF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.73%, more than TMV's 2.41% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBF ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury | 2.73% | 3.39% | 4.06% | 4.99% | 0.36% | 0.00% | 0.22% | 1.68% | 0.88% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.41% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.99, TBF and TMV move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMV has higher volatility (8.70%) compared to TBF (2.88%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TBF dropped -70.40% vs TMV's -98.96%.
On 10-year performance, TBF leads with 3.40% vs 1.11% for TMV. On fees, TBF is cheaper at 0.94% per year. On volatility, TBF has been the lower-risk option at 2.88%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TBF has performed better with a 3.40% return vs 1.11%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TBF is cheaper with a 0.94% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TBF has the higher dividend yield at 2.73%, compared with 2.41% for TMV.
TBF is categorized as Inverse Bonds, while TMV is Leveraged Bonds. TBF tracks U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Index (-100%), while TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.94% for TBF and 1.04% for TMV.
TBF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.33 vs 0.12), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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