TBF vs. TMV
TBF (ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury) and TMV (Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X) are both exchange-traded funds - TBF is a Inverse Bonds fund tracking the U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Index (-100%), while TMV is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TBF returned 2.89%/yr vs -0.46%/yr for TMV. With a 0.99 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. TBF charges 0.94%/yr vs 1.04%/yr for TMV.
Performance
TBF vs. TMV - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
The year-to-date returns for both stocks are quite close, with TBF having a 1.51% return and TMV slightly lower at 1.44%. Over the past 10 years, TBF has outperformed TMV with an annualized return of 2.89%, while TMV has yielded a comparatively lower -0.46% annualized return.
TBF
- 1D
- -0.20%
- 1M
- -1.81%
- YTD
- 1.51%
- 6M
- 2.17%
- 1Y
- 1.64%
- 3Y*
- 7.93%
- 5Y*
- 10.42%
- 10Y*
- 2.89%
TMV
- 1D
- -1.17%
- 1M
- -6.25%
- YTD
- 1.44%
- 6M
- 2.97%
- 1Y
- -1.80%
- 3Y*
- 12.91%
- 5Y*
- 20.39%
- 10Y*
- -0.46%
TBF vs. TMV - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBF ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury | 1.51% | 1.27% | 16.33% | 2.43% | 42.37% | 1.33% | -19.35% | -10.96% | 3.26% | -8.46% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 1.44% | -3.75% | 39.76% | -9.69% | 150.18% | 0.83% | -54.13% | -34.22% | 3.99% | -26.48% |
Correlation
The correlation between TBF and TMV is 0.99 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.99 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Aug 20, 2009 | 0.99 |
The correlation between TBF and TMV has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.99 to 0.99 - a consistent structural relationship.
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Return for Risk
TBF vs. TMV — Risk / Return Rank
TBF
TMV
TBF vs. TMV - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) and Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| TBF | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +0.24 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +0.21 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.04 | 1.01 | +0.02 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.23 | -0.08 | +0.31 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.50 | -0.16 | +0.66 |
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Drawdowns
TBF vs. TMV - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum TBF drawdown since its inception was -70.40%, smaller than the maximum TMV drawdown of -98.96%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TBF and TMV.
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Drawdown Indicators
| TBF | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -70.40% | -98.96% | +28.56% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -7.23% | -21.62% | +14.39% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -17.79% | -48.49% | +30.70% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -17.79% | -48.49% | +30.70% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | -38.39% | -82.31% | +43.92% |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -43.88% | -96.06% | +52.18% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -47.41% | -86.61% | +39.20% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 3.31% | 11.09% | -7.78% |
Volatility
TBF vs. TMV - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) is 2.20%, while Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (TMV) has a volatility of 6.55%. This indicates that TBF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TMV based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| TBF | TMV | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 2.20% | 6.55% | -4.35% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 6.52% | 19.56% | -13.04% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 9.29% | 28.25% | -18.96% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 15.68% | 47.05% | -31.37% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 14.50% | 44.38% | -29.88% |
TBF vs. TMV - Expense Ratio Comparison
TBF has a 0.94% expense ratio, which is lower than TMV's 1.04% expense ratio.
Dividends
TBF vs. TMV - Dividend Comparison
TBF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.86%, more than TMV's 2.70% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBF ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury | 2.86% | 3.39% | 4.06% | 4.99% | 0.36% | 0.00% | 0.22% | 1.68% | 0.88% |
TMV Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X | 2.70% | 2.85% | 3.41% | 3.87% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 1.60% | 0.62% |
Frequently Asked Questions
With a correlation of 0.99, TBF and TMV move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.
TMV has higher volatility (6.55%) compared to TBF (2.20%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TBF dropped -70.40% vs TMV's -98.96%.
On 10-year performance, TBF leads with 2.89% vs -0.46% for TMV. On fees, TBF is cheaper at 0.94% per year. On volatility, TBF has been the lower-risk option at 2.20%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 10-year period, TBF has performed better with a 2.89% return vs -0.46%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
TBF is cheaper with a 0.94% expense ratio, compared with 1.04% for TMV.
TBF has the higher dividend yield at 2.86%, compared with 2.70% for TMV.
TBF is categorized as Inverse Bonds, while TMV is Leveraged Bonds. TBF tracks U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Index (-100%), while TMV tracks NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index (-300%). They also come from different issuers: ProShares and Direxion. Their fees differ too: 0.94% for TBF and 1.04% for TMV.
TBF currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.18 vs -0.06), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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