SAFE vs. TMF

Last updated Jun 24, 2026

SAFE (Safehold Inc.) is a stock, while TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) is Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%). Over the past 5 years, SAFE returned -25.97%/yr vs -31.33%/yr for TMF. At a 0.12 correlation, their price movements are largely independent.

Performance

SAFE vs. TMF - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Safehold Inc. (SAFE) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, SAFE achieves a 14.93% return, which is significantly higher than TMF's -4.67% return.

SAFE

• 1D: 2.10%
• 1M: 5.93%
• YTD: 14.93%
• 6M: 19.22%
• 1Y: 4.46%
• 3Y*: -7.81%
• 5Y*: -25.97%
• 10Y*: —

TMF

• 1D: -0.62%
• 1M: 4.96%
• YTD: -4.67%
• 6M: -5.95%
• 1Y: -2.80%
• 3Y*: -21.07%
• 5Y*: -31.33%
• 10Y*: -16.87%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

SAFE vs. TMF - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
SAFE Safehold Inc.	14.93%	-22.47%	-18.25%	-15.60%	-63.41%	11.15%	82.46%	118.07%	10.49%	-5.74%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	-4.67%	-2.94%	-35.95%	-13.01%	-72.60%	-19.80%	39.02%	34.75%	-11.01%	-0.35%

Correlation

The correlation between SAFE and TMF is 0.32, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.32
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.34
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.24
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jun 22, 2017	0.12

The correlation between SAFE and TMF shifts across timeframes, from 0.12 (all time) to 0.34 (3 years), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.

Return for Risk

SAFE vs. TMF — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

SAFE

SAFE Risk / Return Rank: 45
SAFE Sharpe Ratio Rank: 47
SAFE Sortino Ratio Rank: 42
SAFE Omega Ratio Rank: 41
SAFE Calmar Ratio Rank: 47
SAFE Martin Ratio Rank: 47

TMF

TMF Risk / Return Rank: 8
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 8
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 8

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

SAFE vs. TMF - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Safehold Inc. (SAFE) and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	SAFE	TMF	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	0.13	-0.10	+0.23
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	0.41	0.05	+0.36
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.05	1.01	+0.05
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	0.20	-0.11	+0.30
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	0.43	-0.23	+0.66

SAFE vs. TMF - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current SAFE Sharpe Ratio is 0.13, which is higher than the TMF Sharpe Ratio of -0.10. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of SAFE and TMF, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

SAFE vs. TMF - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum SAFE drawdown since its inception was -84.70%, smaller than the maximum TMF drawdown of -92.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for SAFE and TMF.

Drawdown Indicators

	SAFE	TMF	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-84.70%	-92.89%	+8.19%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-22.90%	-26.51%	+3.61%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-51.87%	-56.09%	+4.22%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-84.70%	-88.81%	+4.11%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-92.89%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-80.89%	-92.11%	+11.22%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-40.16%	-43.76%	+3.60%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	10.32%	12.26%	-1.94%

Volatility

SAFE vs. TMF - Volatility Comparison

Safehold Inc. (SAFE) has a higher volatility of 9.26% compared to Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) at 6.50%. This indicates that SAFE's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than TMF based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	SAFE	TMF	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	9.26%	6.50%	+2.76%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	22.79%	19.35%	+3.44%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	34.04%	27.91%	+6.13%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	40.39%	46.59%	-6.20%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	40.99%	43.86%	-2.87%

Dividends

SAFE vs. TMF - Dividend Comparison

SAFE's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.56%, more than TMF's 4.09% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
SAFE Safehold Inc.	4.56%	5.17%	3.83%	3.03%	2.45%	0.84%	1.10%	1.15%	3.19%	1.78%
TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF	4.09%	4.06%	4.29%	2.82%	1.62%	0.13%	2.23%	0.94%	1.49%	0.41%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both SAFE and TMF in my portfolio?

SAFE and TMF have a correlation of 0.32, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, SAFE or TMF?

SAFE has higher volatility (9.26%) compared to TMF (6.50%). In terms of maximum drawdown, SAFE dropped -84.70% vs TMF's -92.89%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

SAFE currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (0.13 vs -0.10), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.