KMLM vs. UBT
KMLM (KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF) and UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) are both exchange-traded funds - KMLM is a Systematic Trend fund tracking the KFA MLM Index, while UBT is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (200% Daily). Both are passively managed. Over the past 5 years, KMLM returned 5.46%/yr vs -21.58%/yr for UBT. Their -0.33 correlation means they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. KMLM charges 0.90%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UBT.
Performance
KMLM vs. UBT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, KMLM achieves a 10.64% return, which is significantly higher than UBT's -9.14% return.
KMLM
- 1D
- -2.05%
- 1M
- 4.67%
- 6M
- 8.67%
- YTD
- 10.64%
- 1Y
- 15.77%
- 3Y*
- -0.31%
- 5Y*
- 5.46%
- 10Y*
- —
- ALL TIME*
- 7.06%
UBT
- 1D
- 0.81%
- 1M
- -7.64%
- 6M
- -8.31%
- YTD
- -9.14%
- 1Y
- -9.25%
- 3Y*
- -9.00%
- 5Y*
- -21.58%
- 10Y*
- -9.58%
- ALL TIME*
- 0.30%
Liquidity Comparison
| Position | Avg. Volume Value (2W) | Avg. Volume Value (1M) | Avg. Volume Value (3M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $10.28M | $9.90M | $7.93M | |
| $607.37K | $624.24K | $851.60K |
KMLM vs. UBT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KMLM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF | 10.64% | -2.98% | -1.69% | -5.66% | 30.61% | 7.04% | 5.74% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -9.14% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 0.45% |
Correlation
The correlation between KMLM and UBT is -0.32, meaning they have often moved in opposite directions in the past. This relationship can weaken or reverse as market conditions change.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Focuses on recent behavior, but can change the most. | -0.32 |
Correlation (3Y) Balances recent behavior with more history. | -0.26 |
Correlation (5Y) Shows whether the relationship held over a longer period. | -0.34 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 2, 2020 | -0.33 |
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Return for Risk
KMLM vs. UBT — Risk / Return Rank
KMLM
UBT
KMLM vs. UBT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF (KMLM) and ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| KMLM | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | +1.87 | ||
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | +2.48 | ||
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.25 | 0.93 | +0.31 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 1.65 | -0.51 | +2.16 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 5.33 | -1.08 | +6.41 |
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Drawdowns
KMLM vs. UBT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum KMLM drawdown since its inception was -27.47%, smaller than the maximum UBT drawdown of -78.90%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for KMLM and UBT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| KMLM | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -27.47% | -78.90% | +51.43% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -9.61% | -18.25% | +8.64% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -22.28% | -31.18% | +8.90% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -27.47% | -72.49% | +45.02% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | — | -78.90% | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -13.73% | -78.21% | +64.48% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -12.79% | -32.73% | +19.94% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 2.97% | 8.58% | -5.61% |
Volatility
KMLM vs. UBT - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF (KMLM) is 4.35%, while ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) has a volatility of 5.23%. This indicates that KMLM experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than UBT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| KMLM | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.35% | 5.23% | -0.88% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 10.24% | 13.51% | -3.27% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 11.68% | 18.34% | -6.66% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 14.55% | 31.09% | -16.54% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 14.68% | 29.18% | -14.50% |
KMLM vs. UBT - Expense Ratio Comparison
KMLM has a 0.90% expense ratio, which is lower than UBT's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
KMLM vs. UBT - Dividend Comparison
KMLM's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.54%, more than UBT's 3.77% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KMLM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF | 4.54% | 5.02% | 0.82% | 0.00% | 13.22% | 6.94% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.77% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
KMLM and UBT have a correlation of -0.32, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UBT has higher volatility (5.23%) compared to KMLM (4.35%). In terms of maximum drawdown, KMLM dropped -27.47% vs UBT's -78.90%.
On 5-year performance, KMLM leads with 5.46% vs -21.58% for UBT. On fees, KMLM is cheaper at 0.90% per year. On volatility, KMLM has been the lower-risk option at 4.35%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 5-year period, KMLM has performed better with a 5.46% return vs -21.58%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
KMLM is cheaper with a 0.90% expense ratio, compared with 0.95% for UBT.
KMLM has the higher dividend yield at 4.54%, compared with 3.77% for UBT.
KMLM is categorized as Systematic Trend, while UBT is Leveraged Bonds. KMLM tracks KFA MLM Index, while UBT tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (200% Daily). They also come from different issuers: KraneShares and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 0.90% for KMLM and 0.95% for UBT.
KMLM currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.36 vs -0.51), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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