KMLM vs. UBT
KMLM (KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF) and UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury) are both exchange-traded funds - KMLM is a Long-Short fund actively managed by CICC, while UBT is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Index (200%). KMLM is actively managed, while UBT is passively managed. Over the past 5 years, KMLM returned 4.37%/yr vs -17.44%/yr for UBT. At a correlation of -0.33, they often move in opposite directions. KMLM charges 0.90%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for UBT.
Performance
KMLM vs. UBT - Performance Comparison
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Returns By Period
In the year-to-date period, KMLM achieves a 10.60% return, which is significantly higher than UBT's -1.97% return.
KMLM
- 1D
- 0.53%
- 1M
- -2.15%
- YTD
- 10.60%
- 6M
- 13.52%
- 1Y
- 12.84%
- 3Y*
- -0.53%
- 5Y*
- 4.37%
- 10Y*
- —
UBT
- 1D
- 0.44%
- 1M
- 0.50%
- YTD
- -1.97%
- 6M
- -5.19%
- 1Y
- 4.64%
- 3Y*
- -10.10%
- 5Y*
- -17.44%
- 10Y*
- -8.20%
KMLM vs. UBT - Yearly Performance Comparison
| 2026 (YTD) | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KMLM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF | 10.60% | -2.98% | -1.69% | -5.66% | 30.61% | 7.04% | 5.40% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | -1.97% | 2.03% | -21.81% | -3.68% | -55.54% | -12.14% | 2.19% |
Correlation
The correlation between KMLM and UBT is -0.17, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. This is especially valuable for risk management - when one declines, the other has historically tended to hold steady or rise.
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | -0.17 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | -0.26 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | -0.33 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Dec 3, 2020 | -0.33 |
The correlation between KMLM and UBT shifts across timeframes, from -0.33 (5 years) to -0.17 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.
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Return for Risk
KMLM vs. UBT — Risk / Return Rank
KMLM
UBT
KMLM vs. UBT - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF (KMLM) and ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| KMLM | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.13 | 0.24 | +0.89 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 1.59 | 0.48 | +1.10 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.20 | 1.05 | +0.15 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.22 | 0.17 | +2.04 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 7.31 | 0.42 | +6.89 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
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Sharpe Ratios by Period
| KMLM | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe Ratio (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 1.13 | 0.24 | +0.89 |
Sharpe Ratio (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.30 | -0.56 | +0.86 |
Sharpe Ratio (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | — | -0.28 | — |
Sharpe Ratio (All Time)Calculated using the full available price history | 0.49 | 0.02 | +0.47 |
Drawdowns
KMLM vs. UBT - Drawdown Comparison
The maximum KMLM drawdown since its inception was -27.47%, smaller than the maximum UBT drawdown of -78.90%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for KMLM and UBT.
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Drawdown Indicators
| KMLM | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Max DrawdownLargest peak-to-trough decline | -27.47% | -78.90% | +51.43% |
Max Drawdown (1Y)Largest decline over 1 year | -6.30% | -16.86% | +10.56% |
Max Drawdown (3Y)Largest decline over 3 years | -22.28% | -36.62% | +14.34% |
Max Drawdown (5Y)Largest decline over 5 years | -27.47% | -72.49% | +45.02% |
Max Drawdown (10Y)Largest decline over 10 years | — | -78.90% | — |
Current DrawdownCurrent decline from peak | -13.76% | -76.48% | +62.72% |
Average DrawdownAverage peak-to-trough decline | -12.74% | -32.29% | +19.55% |
Ulcer IndexDepth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks | 1.91% | 6.97% | -5.06% |
Volatility
KMLM vs. UBT - Volatility Comparison
The current volatility for KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF (KMLM) is 4.49%, while ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) has a volatility of 5.52%. This indicates that KMLM experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than UBT based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.
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Volatility by Period
| KMLM | UBT | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Volatility (1M)Calculated over the trailing 1-month period | 4.49% | 5.52% | -1.03% |
Volatility (6M)Calculated over the trailing 6-month period | 9.64% | 12.97% | -3.33% |
Volatility (1Y)Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 11.46% | 19.47% | -8.01% |
Volatility (5Y)Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized | 14.62% | 31.33% | -16.71% |
Volatility (10Y)Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized | 14.74% | 29.32% | -14.58% |
KMLM vs. UBT - Expense Ratio Comparison
KMLM has a 0.90% expense ratio, which is lower than UBT's 0.95% expense ratio.
Dividends
KMLM vs. UBT - Dividend Comparison
KMLM's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.54%, more than UBT's 3.96% yield.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KMLM KFA Mount Lucas Index Strategy ETF | 4.54% | 5.02% | 0.82% | 0.00% | 13.22% | 6.94% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UBT ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury | 3.96% | 4.26% | 4.50% | 3.54% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.26% | 1.50% | 1.55% | 1.37% | 0.75% | 1.56% |
Frequently Asked Questions
KMLM and UBT have a correlation of -0.17, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.
UBT has higher volatility (5.52%) compared to KMLM (4.49%). In terms of maximum drawdown, KMLM dropped -27.47% vs UBT's -78.90%.
On 5-year performance, KMLM leads with 4.37% vs -17.44% for UBT. On fees, KMLM is cheaper at 0.90% per year. On volatility, KMLM has been the lower-risk option at 4.49%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.
Over the 5-year period, KMLM has performed better with a 4.37% return vs -17.44%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.
KMLM is cheaper with a 0.90% expense ratio, compared with 0.95% for UBT.
KMLM has the higher dividend yield at 4.54%, compared with 3.96% for UBT.
KMLM is categorized as Long-Short, while UBT is Leveraged Bonds. They also come from different issuers: CICC and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 0.90% for KMLM and 0.95% for UBT.
KMLM currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.13 vs 0.24), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.
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