HODL vs. TQQQ

Last updated Jun 24, 2026

HODL (VanEck Bitcoin Trust) and TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ) are both exchange-traded funds - HODL is a Cryptocurrency fund tracking the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant, while TQQQ is a Leveraged Equities fund tracking the NASDAQ-100 Index (300%). Both are passively managed. Over the past year, HODL returned -39.68% vs 100.69% for TQQQ. At a 0.41 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. HODL charges 0.25%/yr vs 0.95%/yr for TQQQ.

Performance

HODL vs. TQQQ - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, HODL achieves a -28.75% return, which is significantly lower than TQQQ's 41.43% return.

HODL

• 1D: -3.24%
• 1M: -17.82%
• YTD: -28.75%
• 6M: -28.92%
• 1Y: -39.68%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

TQQQ

• 1D: -9.86%
• 1M: -4.37%
• YTD: 41.43%
• 6M: 35.75%
• 1Y: 100.69%
• 3Y*: 58.02%
• 5Y*: 21.47%
• 10Y*: 45.48%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

HODL vs. TQQQ - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024
HODL VanEck Bitcoin Trust	-28.75%	-6.42%	91.50%
TQQQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ	41.43%	34.35%	60.36%

Correlation

The correlation between HODL and TQQQ is 0.50, which is moderate. They share some common price drivers but move independently often enough to provide real diversification benefit when combined.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.50
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 11, 2024	0.41

The correlation between HODL and TQQQ has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.41 to 0.50 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

HODL vs. TQQQ — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

HODL

HODL Risk / Return Rank: 2
HODL Sharpe Ratio Rank: 2
HODL Sortino Ratio Rank: 2
HODL Omega Ratio Rank: 2
HODL Calmar Ratio Rank: 2
HODL Martin Ratio Rank: 2

TQQQ

TQQQ Risk / Return Rank: 53
TQQQ Sharpe Ratio Rank: 58
TQQQ Sortino Ratio Rank: 47
TQQQ Omega Ratio Rank: 49
TQQQ Calmar Ratio Rank: 57
TQQQ Martin Ratio Rank: 52

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

HODL vs. TQQQ - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	HODL	TQQQ	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.90	1.90	-2.80
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-1.26	2.27	-3.53
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.86	1.30	-0.44
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.77	2.74	-3.50
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.30	8.72	-10.02

HODL vs. TQQQ - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current HODL Sharpe Ratio is -0.90, which is lower than the TQQQ Sharpe Ratio of 1.90. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of HODL and TQQQ, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

HODL vs. TQQQ - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum HODL drawdown since its inception was -51.96%, smaller than the maximum TQQQ drawdown of -81.66%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for HODL and TQQQ.

Drawdown Indicators

	HODL	TQQQ	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-51.96%	-81.66%	+29.70%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-51.96%	-36.97%	-14.99%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	—	-58.04%	—
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	—	-81.66%	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-81.66%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-50.35%	-14.65%	-35.70%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-16.78%	-18.49%	+1.71%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	30.49%	11.59%	+18.90%

Volatility

HODL vs. TQQQ - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) is 13.07%, while ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) has a volatility of 27.27%. This indicates that HODL experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than TQQQ based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	HODL	TQQQ	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	13.07%	27.27%	-14.20%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	34.59%	43.35%	-8.76%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	44.11%	53.39%	-9.28%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	49.89%	67.41%	-17.52%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	49.89%	66.32%	-16.43%

HODL vs. TQQQ - Expense Ratio Comparison

HODL has a 0.25% expense ratio, which is lower than TQQQ's 0.95% expense ratio.

Dividends

HODL vs. TQQQ - Dividend Comparison

HODL has not paid dividends to shareholders, while TQQQ's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 0.42%.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
HODL VanEck Bitcoin Trust	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
TQQQ ProShares UltraPro QQQ	0.42%	0.65%	1.27%	1.26%	0.57%	0.00%	0.00%	0.06%	0.11%	0.00%	0.00%	0.01%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both HODL and TQQQ in my portfolio?

HODL and TQQQ have a correlation of 0.50, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, HODL or TQQQ?

TQQQ has higher volatility (27.27%) compared to HODL (13.07%). In terms of maximum drawdown, HODL dropped -51.96% vs TQQQ's -81.66%.

Which ETF is better, HODL or TQQQ?

On 1-year performance, TQQQ leads with 100.69% vs -39.68% for HODL. On fees, HODL is cheaper at 0.25% per year. On volatility, HODL has been the lower-risk option at 13.07%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, HODL or TQQQ?

Over the 1-year period, TQQQ has performed better with a 100.69% return vs -39.68%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, HODL or TQQQ?

HODL is cheaper with a 0.25% expense ratio, compared with 0.95% for TQQQ.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, HODL or TQQQ?

TQQQ has the higher dividend yield at 0.42%, compared with 0.00% for HODL.

What is the main difference between HODL and TQQQ?

HODL is categorized as Cryptocurrency, while TQQQ is Leveraged Equities. HODL tracks CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant, while TQQQ tracks NASDAQ-100 Index (300%). They also come from different issuers: VanEck and ProShares. Their fees differ too: 0.25% for HODL and 0.95% for TQQQ.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

TQQQ currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.90 vs -0.90), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.