HODL vs. GBTC

Last updated Jun 3, 2026

HODL (VanEck Bitcoin Trust) is Cryptocurrency fund tracking the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate - New York Variant, while GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)) is a stock. Over the past year, HODL returned -35.69% vs -36.66% for GBTC. With a 1.00 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep.

Performance

HODL vs. GBTC - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

The year-to-date returns for both stocks are quite close, with HODL having a -23.13% return and GBTC slightly lower at -23.70%.

HODL

• 1D: -5.94%
• 1M: -14.33%
• YTD: -23.13%
• 6M: -26.17%
• 1Y: -35.69%
• 3Y*: —
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

GBTC

• 1D: -5.98%
• 1M: -14.45%
• YTD: -23.70%
• 6M: -26.79%
• 1Y: -36.66%
• 3Y*: 53.65%
• 5Y*: 10.09%
• 10Y*: 50.88%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

HODL vs. GBTC - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024
HODL VanEck Bitcoin Trust	-23.13%	-6.42%	99.75%
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)	-23.70%	-7.65%	81.91%

Correlation

The correlation between HODL and GBTC is 1.00 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	1.00
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jan 12, 2024	1.00

The correlation between HODL and GBTC has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 1.00 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.

Return for Risk

HODL vs. GBTC — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

HODL

HODL Risk / Return Rank: 2
HODL Sharpe Ratio Rank: 2
HODL Sortino Ratio Rank: 2
HODL Omega Ratio Rank: 3
HODL Calmar Ratio Rank: 2
HODL Martin Ratio Rank: 2

GBTC

GBTC Risk / Return Rank: 10
GBTC Sharpe Ratio Rank: 7
GBTC Sortino Ratio Rank: 9
GBTC Omega Ratio Rank: 11
GBTC Calmar Ratio Rank: 12
GBTC Martin Ratio Rank: 10

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

HODL vs. GBTC - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	HODL	GBTC	Difference
Sharpe ratio Return per unit of total volatility	-0.82	-0.84	+0.02
Sortino ratio Return per unit of downside risk	-1.09	-1.13	+0.04
Omega ratio Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.88	0.87	0.00
Calmar ratio Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.73	-0.74	+0.02
Martin ratio Return relative to average drawdown	-1.27	-1.29	+0.02
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

HODL vs. GBTC - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current HODL Sharpe Ratio is -0.82, which is comparable to the GBTC Sharpe Ratio of -0.84. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of HODL and GBTC, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	HODL	GBTC	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.82	-0.84	+0.02
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	—	0.16	—
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	—	0.62	—
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	0.33	0.66	-0.33

Drawdowns

HODL vs. GBTC - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum HODL drawdown since its inception was -49.25%, smaller than the maximum GBTC drawdown of -89.91%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for HODL and GBTC.

Drawdown Indicators

	HODL	GBTC	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-49.25%	-89.91%	+40.66%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-49.25%	-49.55%	+0.30%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	—	-49.55%	—
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	—	-85.42%	—
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	—	-89.91%	—
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-46.44%	-47.01%	+0.57%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-15.92%	-43.43%	+27.51%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	28.19%	28.47%	-0.28%

Volatility

HODL vs. GBTC - Volatility Comparison

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC) (GBTC) have volatilities of 9.65% and 9.69%, respectively, indicating that both stocks experience similar levels of price fluctuations. This suggests that the risk associated with both stocks, as measured by volatility, is nearly the same. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	HODL	GBTC	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	9.65%	9.69%	-0.04%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	34.73%	34.77%	-0.04%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	43.43%	43.58%	-0.15%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	49.89%	62.46%	-12.57%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	49.89%	82.22%	-32.33%

Dividends

HODL vs. GBTC - Dividend Comparison

Neither HODL nor GBTC has paid dividends to shareholders.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	5.61%
HODL VanEck Bitcoin Trust	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both HODL and GBTC in my portfolio?

With a correlation of 1.00, HODL and GBTC move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.

Which is riskier, HODL or GBTC?

GBTC has higher volatility (9.69%) compared to HODL (9.65%). In terms of maximum drawdown, HODL dropped -49.25% vs GBTC's -89.91%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

HODL currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (-0.82 vs -0.84), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.