HARD vs. CAOS

Last updated Jun 23, 2026

HARD (Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF) and CAOS (Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - HARD is a Commodities fund actively managed by Simplify, while CAOS is a Options Trading fund actively managed by Alpha Architect. Both are actively managed. Over the past 3 years, HARD returned 10.40%/yr vs 3.95%/yr for CAOS. At a correlation of -0.06, they often move in opposite directions. HARD charges 0.75%/yr vs 0.63%/yr for CAOS.

Performance

HARD vs. CAOS - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF (HARD) and Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, HARD achieves a 4.88% return, which is significantly higher than CAOS's 0.75% return.

HARD

• 1D: -0.66%
• 1M: -11.24%
• YTD: 4.88%
• 6M: 2.63%
• 1Y: 8.74%
• 3Y*: 10.40%
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

CAOS

• 1D: 0.11%
• 1M: -0.08%
• YTD: 0.75%
• 6M: 0.67%
• 1Y: 1.64%
• 3Y*: 3.95%
• 5Y*: —
• 10Y*: —

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

HARD vs. CAOS - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023
HARD Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF	4.88%	12.19%	20.48%	-5.04%
CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	0.75%	2.55%	5.33%	9.29%

Correlation

The correlation between HARD and CAOS is 0.07, meaning there is essentially no relationship between their price movements. Each responds to its own set of market drivers, making them strong candidates for combining in a diversified portfolio.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.07
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	-0.04
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 28, 2023	-0.06

The correlation between HARD and CAOS shifts across timeframes, from -0.06 (all time) to 0.07 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.

Return for Risk

HARD vs. CAOS — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

HARD

HARD Risk / Return Rank: 13
HARD Sharpe Ratio Rank: 13
HARD Sortino Ratio Rank: 13
HARD Omega Ratio Rank: 13
HARD Calmar Ratio Rank: 14
HARD Martin Ratio Rank: 15

CAOS

CAOS Risk / Return Rank: 36
CAOS Sharpe Ratio Rank: 31
CAOS Sortino Ratio Rank: 34
CAOS Omega Ratio Rank: 35
CAOS Calmar Ratio Rank: 45
CAOS Martin Ratio Rank: 36

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

HARD vs. CAOS - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF (HARD) and Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.

	HARD	CAOS	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	0.33	1.10	-0.77
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	0.60	1.75	-1.15
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.08	1.23	-0.15
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	0.48	2.17	-1.69
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	1.41	5.23	-3.82

HARD vs. CAOS - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current HARD Sharpe Ratio is 0.33, which is lower than the CAOS Sharpe Ratio of 1.10. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of HARD and CAOS, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Drawdowns

HARD vs. CAOS - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum HARD drawdown since its inception was -18.12%, which is greater than CAOS's maximum drawdown of -3.89%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for HARD and CAOS.

Drawdown Indicators

	HARD	CAOS	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-18.12%	-3.89%	-14.23%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-18.12%	-0.76%	-17.36%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-18.12%	-3.60%	-14.52%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-18.12%	-1.14%	-16.98%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-5.61%	-0.92%	-4.69%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	6.21%	0.32%	+5.89%

Volatility

HARD vs. CAOS - Volatility Comparison

Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF (HARD) has a higher volatility of 5.10% compared to Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF (CAOS) at 0.32%. This indicates that HARD's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than CAOS based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	HARD	CAOS	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	5.10%	0.32%	+4.78%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	21.87%	1.05%	+20.82%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	26.37%	1.50%	+24.87%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	19.05%	4.23%	+14.82%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	19.05%	4.23%	+14.82%

HARD vs. CAOS - Expense Ratio Comparison

HARD has a 0.75% expense ratio, which is higher than CAOS's 0.63% expense ratio.

Dividends

HARD vs. CAOS - Dividend Comparison

HARD's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.86%, while CAOS has not paid dividends to shareholders.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023
CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
HARD Simplify Commodities Strategy No K-1 ETF	2.86%	2.36%	3.51%	1.95%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both HARD and CAOS in my portfolio?

HARD and CAOS have a correlation of 0.07, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, HARD or CAOS?

HARD has higher volatility (5.10%) compared to CAOS (0.32%). In terms of maximum drawdown, HARD dropped -18.12% vs CAOS's -3.89%.

Which ETF is better, HARD or CAOS?

On 3-year performance, HARD leads with 10.40% vs 3.95% for CAOS. On fees, CAOS is cheaper at 0.63% per year. On volatility, CAOS has been the lower-risk option at 0.32%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Which ETF has performed better, HARD or CAOS?

Over the 3-year period, HARD has performed better with a 10.40% return vs 3.95%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

Which ETF is cheaper, HARD or CAOS?

CAOS is cheaper with a 0.63% expense ratio, compared with 0.75% for HARD.

Which ETF pays a higher dividend yield, HARD or CAOS?

HARD has the higher dividend yield at 2.86%, compared with 0.00% for CAOS.

What is the main difference between HARD and CAOS?

HARD is categorized as Commodities, while CAOS is Options Trading. They also come from different issuers: Simplify and Alpha Architect. Their fees differ too: 0.75% for HARD and 0.63% for CAOS.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

CAOS currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (1.10 vs 0.33), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.